Discussion for article #241847
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Yeah, and the TPM Democratic Party Insider Brain Trust is crowing “more debates is just about Sanders.” What nonsense!
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Steady as she goes.
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Why the hell wasn’t Biden in this debate if he wants to be taken seriously? And spare me please – don’t tell me about his departed son any more.
Nice work Hillary!
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Well if it ever was just about Sanders, the advocates for this may not feel so strongly about it now. 
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Yep, and this confirms what I thought throughout the debate, HRC clearly won handily. I expect we’ll keep seeing results like this and we’ll stop hearing calls for more debates.
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Oh, I expect some Sanders folks to come along and say A) its just one poll (which is true) and B) statistically its a tie, 2 points isn’t a “lead” (which is also true).
But, just to be a lil preemptive, Sanders has been polling between 7-9 points ahead of Hillary. Unless this is a huge outlier, they should be concerned. Especially because of that 11% still showing up for Biden. When he finally announces he isn’t running, most of that support is going to Hillary. And that pushes her out of the margin of error.
In fact, the Biden factor is probably going to bite them in the ass all across the country, but particularly hard in the south, where Sanders numbers with Blacks are abysmal.
My feeling is, especially if he loses both Iowa and NH, that Super Tuesday will be the end of his campaign.
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Hey, btw…did you catch Hillary down in San Antonio yesterday? She was on the stage with Castro, both of them making a pretty impressive plea about gun violence…and him giving her his endorsement.
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I’ve been waiting for a piece on his endorsement since I saw it yesterday. I immediately thought of you and your prediction. It just makes all the sense in the world. She chooses him as her Veep and we’re honestly looking at picking up states we have no business even considering. Even if she doesn’t win any additional states outside of Obama’s, I think a Castro pick would force Republicans to spend in states they never could imagine possibly losing.
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I think the smart money is on Julian Castro being in the short list for VP nominees, and the likely VP nominee, for Hillary.
This whole “Secretary of Housing” thing is just a bs-y excuse to give him “national executive level experience” in preparation of the VP role.
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Which states do you think Castro could help put into play? The only obvious ones to me would be Arizona, and then shifting Texas towards more purple if the turn-out rates for Latinos could match that of White voters. Of course just Arizona would be a huge blow to the GOP, let alone making them spend in Texas.
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From ABC News:
Hillary Clinton opened the door today for Julian Castro to be a possible pick for vice president if she wins the Democratic nomination, saying she is “going to really look hard at him for anything, because that’s how good he is.”
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TX and AZ are exactly the two states I was thinking of, but I might add Georgia to that too. For demographic reasons, GA is getting closer and closer to purple.
Thanks for posting this.
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If it’s Bush or Rubio she’s against, she may feel she needs a native-quality Spanish speaker on the ticket. Who else is there besides Castro
And her lead among folks who watched the debate is 5 points.
Sufolk has been polling in NH since 2003, and it’s pretty accurate.
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I don’t think its really an excuse as much of a grooming step on a natural ladder. He was a very successful and well liked mayor of San Antonio, which makes moving into HUD an obvious step. And it does give him exposure to how the White House and Cabinets are run. Its not SoS, obviously, but he doesn’t really have the credentials for that post, either.
And its far better than having him sitting on the sidelines twiddling his thumbs.
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Plucky got it. Castro on the ticket puts Arizona into the “possibly in play” category, along with Georgia. And makes republicans nervous about Texas. It won’t move Texas into the blue column for the Presidency, but it could have an impact down ticket by drawing out more Hispanic voters.
Additionally, he helps moves Nevada, and solidifies Colorado.
And in the strategic EV game, making them spend money in Nevada and Arizona, means they have less to spend in Florida and Ohio.
But the most important thing that Castro as VP does, is it gives him massive national exposure and puts us in a VERY place for 2020, and then his eventual run in 2024, when the demographic wave is much larger.
Castro is the smart long term strategy for us as a party.
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"When he finally announces he isn’t running, most of that support is going to Hillary. "
And you know this how?
Take a look at the second choices for people supporting Biden. Overwhelmingly its Hillary.
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Although I agree with Sanders ideas generally, he is irritating, a shouting old man. He cannot win a general election. Hillary can, and must---- or say good bye to the Supreme Court for a generation.
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