Discussion: Poll: Ernst Leads Braley

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Discussion for article #223682

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Just what Iowa and the Senate needs right now…Michelle Bachmann’s swine addled doppelganger. But can she out-crazy Ted Cruz?

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Rudy Giuliani

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Just as I thought Corn kills brain cells. Wake up Iowa!

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Look, guys, it’s this simple.

Democratic pollsters are in the business of telling Democrats the truth. Those that don’t do that don’t get repeat business. Republican pollsters are in the business of telling Republicans what they want to hear. Those that don’t do that do’t get repeat business.

Republican bias “house effect” in Republican polling is a well-documented phenomenon, though I admit that my explanation for the phenomenon is my opinion based on on my own possibly biased observations of the way Republicans grapple with things like data and objective reality.

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The latest Vox Populi survey was an automated poll conducted among 667 active voters between June 4 and June 5.

The poll, conducted by Republican pollster Vox Populi

That is an awfully small population, and a republican pollster. Not sure why TPM keeps targeting these stories.

I am not putting much credence into these polls, except perhaps the Ras one, ironically enough. All of them, including Ras, are being colored by her winning the recent primary. She has been all over the TV in Iowa for a few weeks leading up to that poll, while Braley has not.

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TPM targets those polls because their bread and butter are clicks from political junkies of a certain persuasion, and nothing gets more clicks than a poll that shows your guy/gal is in trouble.

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I live in Iowa. I’ve known Bruce Braley for a long time, we are on a first name basis. I have to say that unfortunately these polls are not skewed. This castrating c*nt is getting a free pass on her outlandish extremism, and Braley’s campaign hasn’t laid a glove on her. He really doesn’t come off that well on TV. His campaign, frankly, is flailing right now. It’s fucking depressing. I really expected more killer instinct from a goddamn successful trial lawyer.

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Braley so far hasn’t shown any fight in this campaign. I’m not surprised at these polls, other than that I think the real state of the race is toss-up rather than GOP lead, and if the state can elect Terry Branstad five times as governor and still seriously consider a sixth, it can elect Joni Ernst. Personality goes a long way with Iowa voters – they’re probably less motivated by party than almost anywhere else – and Braley needs to start opening his up for public inspection.

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the ad that started that Ernst bump.

Aside from imagery and the state and national GOP dictating the tale, there was nothing wrong with the ad itself.

Now there’s a danger in this, but run that ad again; however do two (maybe three) versions of it.

  1. eliminate the chick imagery. the state GOP won that round, hence concede the point. However run the ad on what it should have been run for: what has Ernst done as a state senator? What has she done to reduce spending?

  2. Run that ad again, but load it with the comments from the conservative media (not all of em, but just enuff) that criticized this ad. Then ask them what have they done to promote women’s rights.

Again the critics are from the usual suspects (Briebart and Fox), so push that point across.

If this becomes ‘Bruce Brailey and the Democrats are attacking me as a woman and a mother’ then Joni Ernst will likely get over, because Brailey is already in trouble for the Grassley remarks.

However force the issue and make her answer the question: what has she done to reduce state spending?

If she cant answer that…then she will be in trouble soon.

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Iowa has alot of independents that vote in the general and this seat has been held by more independent thinking dems are repubs she will be too tea partish for the people of iowa. I dont think she will win this seat!

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the problem with democratic politicians, they don’t stand and speak with passion. the only democrat I have ever heard speak to power is Elizabeth warren and by the way, Hillary Clinton is a joke. democrats do not shoot down republican nonsense with facts like ms warren did during her campaign.

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Braley’s got to take the gloves off. Ask the question: What has Joni Ernst done to cut spending in Iowa? Follow it up with a field of crickets. Repeat as necessary.

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Why play on her turf? The woman is a Bachmannesque right wing extremist. A candidate with a sharp wit and killer instinct (Hi, Charlie Crist) would crucify this hypocritical harlot. I’m losing faith in Braley’s ability to prosecute this trollop, which oughta scare you all, since I’ve known him for 20 fucking years.

This shitstain Ernst is one of the fuckholes who untweeted her tweet celebrating the release of our POW. She oughta be hammered on that alone.

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From Nate Silver:
Braley had held onto his lead in several polls since the “farmer” comments, but two released last week after Ernst’s primary victory had her ahead instead. There’s some reason to be skeptical of these polls: one was from Rasmussen Reports, and the other was from Loras College, which has not previously done much public polling. Furthermore, candidates sometimes get a temporary bounce from the favorable publicity surrounding a primary win, which then fades. (A case in point is the Democrat Creigh Deeds in the 2009 gubernatorial race in Virginia.) We now put Braley’s chances at 60 percent.

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Can I get amen for NC Steve

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And I used to think Iowa was smart when they elected Sen. Harkin!! To replace him with a Tea Party Republican radical is a disgrace!

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Exactly, this isn’t strange at all. Braley was uncontested while the Republican primary was the subject of national news. She’s merely getting a bump from publicity and name recognition from a primary that was held less than a week ago. I wouldn’t worry about a few polls taken within a week of a primary. If she’s still ahead a month from now then it may be time for concern. It’s way too early just yet.

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A mid-June lead following a primary win bounce isn’t getting a rise out of me, TPM.

Call me in August.

(but someone better tell Braley to quit being such a spineless wuss)

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I have his personal email, and I told him just that.