As of yesterday:
Clinton probability of wing presidency = 78.1%
'Nuff said."
This has to be true baloney.
Always knew there were a LOT of stupid racist bigots in America.
Underestimated just how many there really are.
It’s quite a change. I wouldn’t say this is a meaningless development.
I think Trump’s game plan is to make the campaign bilaterally negative.
If the question becomes who do you hate more, he could win.
I doubt that the current negative numbers for Trump are as solid as the same numbers for Clinton.
National polls are worthless. Because of party loyalty, each candidate has a floor of roughly 45%. Then depending on third party candidates, status of Bernie’s voters, independent voters, etc., we go from there.
That being said, as disastrous as Trump is, it’s not going to be 60/40 or anything close to that. A 5-point lead is actually not insignificant, though very early.
The only point of this is to give the media something to bloviate about.
“Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump nationally has decreased to just five points, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released Monday.”
To give some perspective “just five points” is greater than the margin of Obama’s victory over Romney in 2012, which was an Electoral College landslide.
You really think the MSM is going to give up the horse race narrative in July?
Brought to you by Phil D. Space.
Its better not to be too confident lest anyone should think they have the luxury of sitting it out or voting third party. Democrats have to run the campaign like its a matter of life and death – because it is.
More context:
From Gallup Obama Lead Romney, 48% to 43% on July 2, 2012.
Dump barely cracks 40% in poll after poll. Once Hillary is cleared and Bernie endorses her, its over.
Can TPM provide some information and analysis on the poll’s internals?
It’s the only site I even pay attention to. Sabato’s record is stellar.
Approximately 4 in 10 Americans are pieces of shit.
Happy patriotism day.
Once Bernie endorses her
Don’t hold your breath on that.
As Josh Marshall noted two weeks ago, there has been markedly little movement in the polls for months. Here is a chart from Huffington’s poll aggregator page (moderate smoothing). The stability stands right out. And the 5% difference from this poll is right on the money. It’s fun to watch these polls, but we have to keep them in perspective.
To later appear as: “Dems distance themselves from faltering Clinton campaign.”
There is no link at the USA today article to the actual poll. Unless we can see the crosstabs like we were able to in Quinnipiac’s bizarre poll last week—which had 39% of Hispanics favorable to Trump—I’m a bit suspicious of all polls.
I am still hoping Trump pulls less than 40% of the vote in November. Don’t get me wrong, any win is a win, and a crucial one in this case. But what I really want to see is the kind of landslide that shows a decisive rejection of Trump’s racist, sexist, xenophobic demagoguery.