Exactly!! We have to get out the vote!!!
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To Kaine or not to Kaine, that is the question.
Talk to everyone you know and just ask this simple three word question:
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I know-- polls are pretty useless at this point. But Iâm sitting in my office looking around at my coworkers, all ten of us, and Iâm thinking, if weâre representative of the country, FOUR of you think Donald Trump is great and should be president.
40% of our fellow Americans look at that man and donât say, âPoltroonâ, but rather âPresidential!â
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Volunteer! Iâve been involved already with my local group and damn, you should see how grimly determined they areâIâd think itâs something like the Navy after Pearl Harbor, theyâre ready to go out and do some damage. And youâll be impressedâour folks know what theyâre doing and the national organizers youâll meet are good at this. Shit is tight! The other side not so much. So letâs all get in on this and give the bad guys a thorough curb-stomping.
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Hard to call a poll compared to two months ago ânarrowingâ. End of April Clinton was surging. Then in mid-May Trump was surging as Cruz pulled out. Then in early June Clinton retook the momentum, settling in with all polls a little lower than her April lead but far above the May trough. And thatâs where this USA Today Poll places things - right in line with the others now.
The only thing significant about it is that it comes after Bill Clintonâs tarmac visit and includes press of Hillaryâs FBI interview. If Clinton is still up by 5 with such potentially disastrous campaign news circulating then she is pretty safe. Barring an indictment, she will win easily. And if indicted, another Dem would crush Trump, who cannot get above 41.
Do you think Sanders will do that? Do you think that will influence anyone? He obviously thinks he has a lot of influence, but it seems like most of those who would vote for her are already polling that way, and the 25% or so of his supporters who will ânever everâ vote for Clinton have already made pretty clear that a Sanders endorsement doesnât matter.
But certainly a well-run convention without too much shenanigans from the losing candidate will give Clinton a bounce.
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Daily polling is wearisome. Better a once a week aggregation of polls?
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Does anyone else here find it amusing that the declarative, Clintonâs lead narrows misses that the poll in question still beats the average, TPM itself cites. How about Clintonâs lead settles but she still leads.
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Like Matt and many other TPMers, I am volunteering for Secretary Clinton. I deal with many people in my activities from all walks of life. I can report that, most of all, I have noted the joy that we have on our side. True joy. That is a powerful force for us good guys.
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Real Clear Politics does that in a shitty way. It mixes data a month old and hand picks polls. Nate OTOH,feeds data in daily I believe and is far more reliable.
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Itâs a useful data point for aggregation purposes, but using a likely voter filter in July is methodologically, well, whatâs the technical term Iâm trying to dredge up from my old Survey Research Methods class in college? Oh yeah, fucking stupid.
The only reason to use a likely voter screen outside of October is to try to make things look closer than they are to generate breathless headlines. And, indeed, based on the last two presidential elections, the utility of the entire concept of likely voter screens is dubious.
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Because, clicksâŚ
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It really fries me that Silver, aka Captain Clickbait, gets so much attention. He is not deeply terrible, as many pundits are, but he is far from the best or last word.
That honor probably belongs to Dr Sam Wangâs Princeton Election Consortium, which currently shows Clinton currently at 330 Electoral Votes and with a Bayseian November win probability of 85%.
Other sources show 364 or so EV. The reality is that for all the MSM âhorse-raceâ BS, the presidency is not in any doubt; doubt is in the Senate-seat flip count.
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The media has to have its horse race.
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Um: 45.7 - 39.7 = 6.0
45.7 - 39.7 â 5.0
Look at the confidence intervals (light shading).
And the critical point here is that Trump has a hard ceiling and Hillary has a hard floor and his ceiling is below her floor. And the staggering part here is that he has basically no money, no ground game, no data program, and no plan.
Iâm really questioning (not quite ready to say âdoubtingâ) whether the buffoon is even going to get a convention bounce. Itâs looking very likely that the asshats are really going to have to work hard to pretend like itâs a normal convention, that major party figures arenât avoiding it like a polonium 210 margarita served in a goblet made of thallium with a rim salted with crystalized ebola virus and that everyone on the speakerâs podium is a batshit crazy hack from the JV team.
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Why be a dick when you joined just 14 minutes ago?
Do not flag.
The vermin-like troll would like nothing better
than to close down the thread for excessive community flagging.
jw1
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I did. I do not believe that the gap between the extremes of the confidence interval is any sort of measure of significance. Why not take Clintonâs upper and Trumpâs lower? It makes as much sense as doing it the other way. Thatâs why most people accept the difference between the central trend lines as the measure.
Possibly more interesting is that the Clinton line has remained very steady for ten months now, while the Trump line shows decline; that decline has one odd period, from about the start of April to almost the middle of June, six weeks or so, of rise, but basically looks like it will be a downward avalanche.
We will see what happens to Clintonâs line once the non-indictment is announced and the convention bump has been and gone; I suspect it will trend up to at least the natural 48% that Deoocrats enjoy (vs. a natural 39% for Republicans), but with Trump the Republican, we may well see the ânaturalâ 9% Democratic advantage exceeded.
(Whence those ânaturalâ numbers? From Pewâs 25,000-person examination of the American electorate.)