Discussion for article #239334
Bad timing for Harry Enten, who just yesterday declared Sanders had reached his limitā¦
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Hillary supporters are already calling this poll an āoutlierā and questioning the credibility of the pollsters. Just like Hillary supporters did in 2008 when a guy with a very strange name , āBarackā I think it was, who was bi-racial was creeping up in the polls.
True, Hillary won the NH primary in 2008, Obama coming in a close second, but Obama lost in NH to Hillary. I doubt there was a poll in 2007 in the summer that put Obama anywhere near close to Hillary in NH. Just some thoughts for Hillary supporters.
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Nate Silver also had a piece up yesterday saying āBernieās surge is over.ā
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Fascinating, but Iāll take it with a grain of salt [or maybe the whole shaker]. Nate Silver/538 gives these pollsters a C- rating and then, ffrom Sam Wang
Sam Wang ā@SamWangPhD 10h10 hours ago
Sam Wang retweeted Joe Battenfeld
God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez.
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD
Maybe, but Iām stayinā skeptical for now.
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āShockerā? No. Itās only shocking if you live in a tiny, very comfortable bubble. One that prevents you from seeing the seething, simmering rage most of the rest of the country has towards Wall Street-corrupted politicians.
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The Repugnicans are going to ride the Clinton email thing for everything itās worth, and while itās preaching to the choir to the Trump supporters, the independent voters could be negatively influenced. The momentum for Sanders is building at the same time, after an astonishing start. Now this development will add yet more momentum.
The inherent danger in listening to the pundits is that the front runner starts believing theyāre entitled and a shoo-in. Where have we seen this before? Oh, I knowā¦
Those who dismiss even their very own history are condemned to repeat it.
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Excellent news
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This is no shocker, at least not to me.
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Naturally it will take several polls before we can feel comfortable saying its a real trend. But Iāll say this ā it wouldnāt surprise me if Sanders beat Clinton in New Hampshire. Still, whatever the validity of this poll is, itās a long way off to the primary.
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In the final analysis we must remember that the goal is to win the general election, not just the Democratic Party nomination. I have not yet determined who will have the best chance of this but I will not speak ill of any Democratic candidate during this stage of the campaign.
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Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire by a comfortable margin.
This aināt my first rodeo.
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I agree. Bernie resonates with young voters, independents, and progressives. Thatās not to be ignored.
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I always take polls with a grain of saltā¦a dash of pepperā¦some cilantroā¦maybe a bit of corriander and tumeric tooā¦
Polls can be way off and have more to do with name recognition at this point than anything else; however, do not be surprised if Sanders pulls ahead in the long run. But stillā¦I donāt trust polls at this point.
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My personal and humble opinion is that Barack Obama was the winner from the moment he announced and we knew heād be president. Weād never seen anything like him or the efficient machinery of his campaign and wonāt again. So, those are the thoughts from this Hillary supporter.
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Between Bernie and Trump Iām thinking Silver and some others may decide the next 12 months are a good time for a sabbatical.
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Hah! Well put.
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As the person sitting in the state next door to New Hampshire, Iām going to say āunlikelyā. Why? First of all, New Hampshirites arenāt exactly enthusiastic about Clinton. Secondly, Sanders is the Senator Next Door. Theyāve heard about him on the news a lot. Plus, there are quite a lot of younger voters in New Hampshire. Soā¦Iām not sure sheāll win it and certainly not by a comfortable margin.
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I believe people respond to polling in the way they think theyāre supposed to in response to the person on the other end of the phone. Are they even likely voters?
Believe it or notā¦I had a feeling he was going to be President when he gave his speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004.
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