Discussion: Poll: Bernie Surges Past Clinton in New Hampshire

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21

This looks like an outlier to me, although I would enjoy a Sanders-Trump battle immensely.

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22

This far out, they may not be, but it is a good point.

Of course, I once told a pollster that I’m a registered Socialist.

23

As did we all. Magic as an adjective is overused, but that’s what it felt like. Absolutely stunning and jaw droppingly amazing.

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24

Hmmm…There are a couple of odd things about this poll. First, it’s using a likely voter screen. That’s highly unusual this early in an election season. Second, it’s a poll from the way conservative Boston Herald conducted by RKM Research and Associates. I’m not sure if I’ve seen any other polling from this RKM bunch before.
If it’s not an outlier good for Sanders and this will prod Sec Clinton to come forward and take on issues more directly, as she did today with her attacks on the GOPigs and women’s health issues.

Dont’ forget that The Herald kept showing Brown beating Warren badly in 2012. They were affiliated with another pollster then, but they are a right wing rag. Still, I’ve seen enough from other polls that the race in NH is close though, and if it is basically tied Sanders should poll ahead at some point, so it’s somewhat believable and, in the end, it confirms the closeness.

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25

No Trump news? Bernie is really enjoying himself. He is 75 and from a small state near New Hampshire and most people are not paying attention. Spare us the bold headlines.

26

True, I supported Obama from the day he announced in Springfield, Illinois, on a cold January 2007 day. I thought Hillary would probably win, too. That was then, this is now.

Despite how little you hear about it, Sanders is a student of Obama’s campaigns, twice over. He knows how it’s done, and he has some money, computer guru’s and organizers ready to roll out in Iowa for the caucuses, where Obama made his big headliner entry as a serious candidate for president. I think most Hillary supporters did vote for Obama, as they did in 2008, and would vote for Sanders if he is the winner of the primaries. But I’m often wrong about Hillary’s chances of winning.

27

I had to correct a pollster who asked (demonstrating the occasional absurdity of a polling question) if I would support sending ACA back to Congress to let them work on it if it were repealed. This was at the point they were voting to repeal on what seemed like a daily basis.

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28

Exactly. At this stage, I remain quite emotionally detached. I’ll get more passionate once a nomination has been made. I’ll support either Hillary or Bernie. I am, however, quite amused at the “Hillary is Satan-in-a-Pant-Suit” sort of invective, but then again, I was one of those high-school students who thought pep-rallies were idiotic at best and Nuremberg-lite at worst [not much school spirit, I’m afraid].

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29

For now I’ll ignore what Nate and other pollsters say about the validity of the NH poll, as most people don’t dig deep enough into the background of any pollster to know the difference. No matter how you slice it, 44 to 37 is a comfortable spread for a Democratic socialist candidate versus a Democratic DLC candidate. To me, the most important thing gained from this poll is that it’s featured on Morning Joe. That’s going to make a lot of people sit up and take notice.

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30

Two things:

  1. this is a notoriously bad GOP pollster;

  2. Clinton will trounce Feel The Bern in Iowa, and that will influence New Hampshire. In the unlikely event that Feel The Bern wins New Hampshire, the remaining contests are, to say the least, daunting for Feel The Bern.

  3. Y’all may hate the billionaires (and knowing a few, I’ll tell you that your loathing is probably justified) but the Democrats will need big money and lots of it to rebuff the Kochkreig. Let me be blunt: My only concern regarding this election is who’ll be appointing douchebags to SCrOTUS.

  4. Deaniacs. I live in Iowa. I’ve seen this movie before. Except Dean was way more electable than Feel The Bern.

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31

Sanders may in fact be a student of Obama’s campaigns, and even twice over. But Clinton has the Obama campaign staff as well as B. Clinton’s staff on her team. Personally chez blue we were torn for a long time as to who we would vote for, and all else being equal, either candidate was a historic First.

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32

[quote=“hornblower, post:25, topic:24897, full:true”]:
No Trump news? Bernie is really enjoying himself. He is 75 and from a small state near New Hampshire and most people are not paying attention. Spare us the bold headlines.
[/quote]

Birthdate: September 8, 1941, Bernie is currently 73, turns 74 next month, would be 75 upon taking the office of the presidency.

In other news, Jimmy Carter turned 90 this week.

33

Harry Enten writes for 538 and Nate Silver. He wrote the piece you mentioned. You guys are talking about the same article.

34

Of course it’s featured on Morning Blow. It was designed and engineered to be featured on Morning Blow. Cobbling the eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is the current raison d’etre of Morning Blow.

A poll conducted by a cadre of right wing operatives for a right wing rag hand delivered to Morning Blow. Goddamn, y’all, I wasn’t born yesterday. The general electorate may consist primarily of barely sentient fucking idiots, but I ain’t one of 'em. I know what’s in the weeds.

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35

Would President Obama give that same speech today?

36

I’m telling you: She’s gonna pull a Coakley. Bernie is surging because he lights up the liberal base, has ideas, has a fire in his belly. Clinton’s effete, uninspiring tapdancing for the “middle” and “independent” voters is going to cost her AND US the race. Then we get to be treated to 4 years of the GOP/Teatrolls attempting to repeal and replace the 20th century.

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37

I have to question the objectivity of anyone who retweets that tweet, with it being blatantly wrong. Even in the article, it says that the same organization ran the same poll two months ago. So saying this is the first poll in six years is factually wrong, how can anything else in the tweet be trusted?

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38

Yeah, aren’t Andrew Card and Marlin Fitzwater [remember them] somehow involved in this poll?

39

And they’re sucking so far.

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40

Yeah but Sam Wang only nailed every single state in 2012, so fuck that guy.

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