His numbers will go up a point as soon as the tape comes out of him calling some woman “one fine heifer.” Believe me. Sad.
When did a D presidential candidate last take Texas? How much has the demographics changed with the movement of many corporate headquarters moving to Texas? What % of population is now Hispanic?
Carter was the last Dem to win Texas.
Hispanics make up between 39% and 45% of the state population, depending on the source. Pew Research Center in January 2016 claimed that it’s 39% (based on 2014 data), but other sources estimate that it’s a bit higher.
Pew Research Center: Hispanic Trends
oops.
SurveyMonkey poll today says HRC +4 in Georgia. (!)
No wonder they are burning down their own headquarters.
I about fell out on the floor with that news. We can hope!
isn’t that awesome?!
I’m very excited about this Texas poll. I got notice of it from the Texas Democratic Party right before it was posted. A 3 point lead is virtually nothing and I’m trying not to hope too much but I am hopeful about Texas.
It looks like the makings of a wave we just need a knock out performance tomorrow in the final debate to seal the deal. I told friends that what made her a strong candidate was her ability to turn red states blue. Now it’s playing out even better than I imagined.
She can do it the ingredients are all there.
I know = an Hispanic population of roughly 45%; and the Bushes - who made it very public that they not only aren’t voting for Trump, but most have admitted they are voting for Hillary. That actually matters to a bunch of Texas GOP.
It is all there.
What Trump needs to do tomorrow is have a solid performance where he calms fears that he’s batshit crazy.
That should be easy.
Easy peasy!
Is there an over/under on the sniff count for debate 3? I’m betting over 100 (last debate had low 80s). Want some action?
I’ll have to think about that - it could go either way. He could suppress his sniffing and explode or he could go full out sniff and come in over 1000.
I try not to get excited about the polls in AZ, TX, GA, or other states that seemed a real stretch for Clinton. I will expect mean reversion in those states. That way, if the results surprise me, it will be a positive surprise.
I will remember the night in '06 when I went to bed in a GOP county and woke up in a Democratic one, and I will hope.
And not expect.
If Trump keeps working at it he can suppress his vote by those 3 points and lose Texas.
Does anyone have a sense of how we should factor - and predict - the 15% undecided vote. Is this high for Texas at this stage of a campaign? I have the same question about other states. How does this undecided vote break on election day? I assume most of them are normally Republican voters, because the data indicate that Trump is getting a smaller share of the Republican vote than Hillary is getting of the Democratic vote. But shouldnt we assume that most of these voters will wind up in the Republican column, where they always seem to wind up? Didn’t we think that the Democratic campaign for Texas governor had a really good shot - based on the polls - but she got clobbered?
Not looking for a fight. Just looking for some analysis. Thanks.