Discussion for article #228319
Whats going on in Wisconsin? Walker does the opposite of what he campaigned for and famously gets on the phone right away with a blogger from the left because he thought it was a Koch brother. He is such a corporate mouth piece. Wait till he gets that big open pit copper mine running those Wisconsin hunters and environmentalist with have some buyers remorse.
4 Likes
Near as I can figure, itâs all the Obama Effect â racist white blue collars that might have voted -D before switching over, others staying home. Wisconsinâs always been on the knifeâs edge, for all its progressive reputation. 2010 just flipped it about five points to the Republicansâ side.
Oh, that, plus legally-sanctioned voter suppression.
1 Like
OK Wisconsinites - the rest of us need an explanation. Just how the fuck can this be happening? What could you folks possibly see in this asshole?
3 Likes
Wisconsin, home of Bob La Follette. What a turnaround.
Still confused by the chart. The headlines seems more alarmist than what is depicted here, which shows Walker and Burke trading leads.
1 Like
I donât believe it, the media comes out with these phony polls and they discourage people who may vote to not vote thinking all is lost. I just say to all Wisconsinites to vote this Koch brother bought and paid for governor to take everyone you know to their voting place and vote Walker the jobless out of office!
1 Like
Fighting Bob and William T. Evjue against the Bradley/Koch John Birch Society.
If the voters of Wisconsin re-elect the cheating college dropout theyll get what they deserved.
This election is all about enthusiasm and GOTV. With numbers between registered voters at a statistical tie, but Walker edging ahead with âlikelyâ voters, this is even clearer.
The internals on this Marquette poll are also fascinating. Walkerâs job approval ratings are 48 approve-49 disapprove among registered voters. His likability ratings are 47-47 among registered voters. Not great for an incumbent governor, especially in the normally easy to please state of Wisconsin, but enough for him to get re-elected if Democrats stay home in a mid-term year and certainly good enough to get elected by a small margin if a large enough percentage of registered voters are no longer âlikely votersâ due to their lack of necessary ID or because of confusion about what exactly the newly implemented voter ID law looks like (this is a real concern in Wisconsin. The confusion could have a small, but significant, psychological affect on voters enthusiasm.) Burke is currently at a favorability rating of 36 positive-37 negative with 27 percent of likely voters still saying they donât know enough about her. 46% of voters believe Burke cares about them, 38% think she doesnât, while 44% of voters believe Walker cares about them, while 56% donât. Walkerâs biggest sign of popularity is that 62% of voters say Walker is âable to get things done,â while voters are still split and uncertain about whether Burke will be effective at getting things done.
So you have 62% of voters saying Walker gets things done, 56% of voters saying Walker doesnât care about them, 48% of voters saying heâs doing a good job in office, 47% saying they like him personally, 46% of voters saying they will vote for him, and 50% of likely voters saying they will absolutely turn out to vote for him on November 4. At this point, itâs all about the enthusiasm gap and people still being uncertain about Mary Burke. Luckily, in Wisconsin, at least in previous elections, local debates and endorsements do have an impact in the final month of an election cycle, as does good old fashioned neighborhood GOTV.
Whatâs most distressing is that the amount of disagreement and confusion there is among the respondents of this poll about some basic facts about Wisconsinâs economy. Voters in this poll are pretty evenly split, and largely among partisan lines, about whether they have heard the latest dismal job numbers for Wisconsin. Similarly, voters in this poll are split about whether or not Wisconsin is lagging other states in our rate of job growth (we are). 45% of respondents correctly acknowledge Wisconsin is falling behind the national average, while 48% believe Wisconsin is keeping pace or doing better than the national average (we arenât). Similar numbers appear when respondents are asked if our state budget situation is better or worse under Walker.
These internal numbers are moving slightly away from Walker since last month, but not by much. So now weâre in a situation where voters in generally our less likely to support Walker and approve of Wisconsinâs economy than they were a month ago, while at the same time die-hard Walker voters are more enthusiastic about voting for him than they were a month go. This gap in enthusiasm and in acknowledgement of reality is symptomatic in a heavily divided state where voting preferences, and perception, is increasingly influenced by tribalism and partisanship. If you support Walker, but see other people starting to question him, you are going to feel the need to double down on your enthusiasm. So far Burke has not been able to translate anti-Walker tribalism into positive support for her candidacy, at least among the 5% of likely voters sheâll need to pull ahead. Thereâs still time, but itâs cutting it awuflly close, especially considering the mass confusion about voter ID laws and the partisan disagreement about the state of Wisconsinâs economy. (The local Wisconsin media is not a helpful factor in this matter, with a constantly shifting rubric about what job numbers should and should not be taking seriously.)
Just for some perspective, on October 17, 2012, the Marquette Poll had Tommy Thompson leading Tammy Baldwin 46-45 among likely voters. A few weeks later Baldwin won the election with a 50-47 split among actual voters. Of course that was a presidential election year, with Obama pulling in voters at the top of the ticket and Baldwin ultimately having a financial advantage over Thompson, so the comparison isnât perfect, but it definitely shows how things can change in the final weeks of campaign. 5-weeks is a long time in Wisconsin politics, for better or for worse.
2 Likes
Wisconsin may have been the home of Bob LaFollette, but weâre also the home of Joe McCarthy. Home of both Liberace and Jeffrey Dahmer. Home of both Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson. Home of Gwen Moore and Paul Ryan. What can I say, weâre a state divided and have been for a long time. I think itâs the extremes in weather we go through every yearâŚ
The RCP average shows Walker up by 1.6 ptsâa statistical tie.
FiveThirtyEight has similar results.
The election is a toss-upâso itâs up to Burke to show voter what Walker really is, and itâs her campaignâs job to do extra work to GOTV.
3 Likes
There is an Obama effect, but not in the way you can imagine. There is about 5% of the electorate that voted for both Walker and Obama. Walker needs these switch voters to stick with him in order to get re-elected, just as Obama needed them in 2012 to get Wisconsinâs electoral votes. Itâs a weird quirk in Wisconsin politics, which tends to get exasperated by the national trend of Republican advantage in mid-term elections. We do have a lot of blue-collar workers, but polls, including this poll, show Burke does better than Walker with families making under $40,000 a year, while support for Walker grows exponentially the more money a family makes. Of course Walker does better in rural and suburban areas, while Burke does better in more populated areas. The rural and northwoods populations tend to be tricky politically. They will generally support conservative social values, they are much more likely to oppose social welfare, but at the same time they support more environmental regulations to protect the natural resources they rely on and more farm and lumber subsidies to keep their jobs safe.
What the F is going on in Wisconsin - this guy has messed up the economy and people still want to vote for him???
2 Likes
I think the chart explains it all.itâs gone up and down so much over the past couple of weeks. Just wait until November, folks.
1 Like
Yep. This is clear from the growing discrepancy among registered voters and likely voters in the Marquette Poll. Charles Franklin released a statement today saying that his polling shows that this âstill qualifies as a very close race.â Enthusiasm among Walkerâs base has grown from last month, even while his job approval and favorability ratings among all registered voters has dropped since last month. In other words, this is going to be a base-election dependent on GOTV and on Burke distinguishing herself among the few remaining undecided voters with the upcoming debates and editorial endorsements. The margin of voters each side can win over is growing increasingly small. Itâs up to Burke (and her supporters) to convince those voters that have already decided they donât like Walker, that Burke is a viable candidate. And sheâll have to do that without turning off the Democratic base. Itâs a tall order, but one Tammy Baldwin pulled off beautifully in October of 2012 (with a major assist from Presidential year politics).
2 Likes
I just donât get itâŚso sad and so strange, with two Obama victoriesâŚare Dems sleeping?
1 Like
I will be so disappointed if WIS elects this clown again. Not in him, but in the people of that state.
2 Likes
Itâs odd. Everyone knows heâs corrupt, but as long as the courts allow him to hide behind the âitâs not illegalâ excuse, he and his supporters can claim that the investigations are some kind of witch hunt. People actually fall for it, and then pretend that the corruption somehow isnât really there.
Many people also know heâs incompetent, I canât say what the appeal is in that regard.
I think a lot of it still has to do with the fact that there is a black man living in the white house who isnât a servant.