Discussion: New Poll Shows Scott Walker With Widest Lead In Months

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Check the internals of the Marquette poll. There is a lot of disagreement among voters about whether or not our economy is indeed messed up and how much of that is to blame on Walker. Welcome to post-factual politics where one candidate can claim Wisconsin is leading the mid-west in job growth, one candidate can claim we’re dead last, and our newspapers and factcheckers say we all just need to agree to disagree based on whatever statistics you personally thing are accurate or important.

Seriously though, it’s impossible to even have a debate about whether or not Walker’s reckless tax cuts, corporate giveaways, refusal of federal funds for medicaid expansion and high-speed rail, and general austerity measures are leading to a huge structural deficit in the next budget cycle. Democrats and most independent financial analysts say we’ll have billion dollar deficits unless our job rate and tax revenue rates magically increase to numbers Wisconsin has never experienced before. Walker and a lot of newspapers tend to believe that those projections can be ignored because it’s possible they won’t happen and if they do happen it won’t be obvious until January, at which point Walker will be able to either let the new Governor clean up his mess, or just claim that no one could have possibly predicted the deficits, and anyway the recent election clearly gave him a mandate to slash spending for public schools and sell off state land and utilities to his corporate backers in order to make up for the deficit, which again he now denies is even possible.

So unfortunately the mess Walker is making of our economy still isn’t apparent to a lot of voters and is heavily subjective to partisan perception. Most voters won’t notice the financial mess until after Walker has been safely elected, claiming a mandate for his fiscal irresponsibility, or until a new Governor is in office, leading voters, again based on partisan perceptions, to conclude that the mess is entirely the fault of the new Democrat in charge.

This is how Republicans can win, not just in Wisconsin, but nationwide. See “starve the beast” and the “two santa claus theory” for the full game-plan.

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No, Scot, the salute is with all five fingers held together.

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A). Calm down. This poll shows registered voters evenly split, while Walker has the advantage of likely voters. There’s a lot of debate within our state about Marquette’s screening of likely vs. registered voters, especially with the newly implemented voter id laws coming into effect, but generally this poll shows Walker has a slight, but not insurmountable advantage at the moment, but not enough to justify your angst (yet).

B). Walker’s job approval and personal favorability ratings continue to slip as the election goes on. Both are now underwater, which is incredibly rare for an incumbent Governor in Wisconsin. A majority of Wisconsinites say that Walker doesn’t care about them. It’s not that people people see anything in Walker, it’s that at this point they don’t see enough in Burke, at least not enough to get Wisconsin over its generally comfort and prefence for incumbents (seriously, an incumbent governor has not been voted out of office since the 1986, when Tommy Thompson was elected). Defeating an incumbent Governor in Wisconsin was always going to be an uphill battle, even when that incumbent has as awful as a record as Walker.

C). Partisanship and tribalism rules. Wisconsin voters tend to disagree on some very simple facts regarding our state and our economy, largely based on partisan perception. In the areas where Walker has the most support, conservative talk radio is incredibly prevalent. Imagine the Fox News bubble, place it over 40% of Wisconsin vote, and then ask them about Walker and our state economy. Their answers will mostly conform to a belief that Walker has saved our economy but that the “liberal” media is just lying about how many jobs are being created (and besides everything that is going wrong in our state is Obama’s fault. Plus IRS and Benghazi, because of course). With this framework in place, it’s increasingly difficult to have an actual debate about the issues. The local media, while even they have started to acknowledge Walker’s many failings, are complicit in the post-factual culture we find ourselves in. The Journal Sentinel, our largest and most influential paper, for example, has yet to decide exactly what job numbers we should take seriously: monthly or quartely numbers from the BLS. In 2012, at the height of the recall election, the Walker campaigned claimed that the unflattering monthly numbers were unreliable and therefore we should only consider the more flattering quarterly numbers. The Journal Sentinel obliged and started to label monthly job numbers from the BLS as “disputed” and “controversial,” despite never having an objection to those numbers before. Now that the BLS quarterly numbers are unflattering to Wisconsin, the Walker campaign has decided that actually we should go back to treating the monthly job numbers as more reliable. The Journal Sentinel has obliged their shifting rubrics without complaint or explanation. With this level of subjectivity on our state economy, enabled by talk radio propaganda and obliging mainstream publications, it’s not a surprise that even though voters are turning against Walker, there is still enough fundamental uncertainty among undecided and unmotivated voters to swing this election towards his favor.

Anyway, this lengthy response is pretty much a request for you, and everyone, to consider the broader cultural and political factors within Wisconsin and across the nation, before you reach aspersions about a failure in the Wisconsin character.

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I’m not in Wisconsin, so I’m wondering if Mary Burke is just a bad candidate?

In the recall, they reran the last race with the theme. “We’re nicer, but we won’t change much,” and lost.

If you want to run against Walker, you have to draw real contrasts.

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Doesn’t matter does it as Walker’s about to be indicted for misuse of public and campaign funds, no?

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And she has to stop praising Ronald Reagan as she did in one ad, it shows weakness.

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“So sad and so strange” is a great description of Wisconsin politics for sure. And yes, it’s a mid-term election so a lot (but not all) Dems are sleeping. For the past three-decades, with few exceptions, Wisconsin has a preference for Democrats at the federal level and Republicans at the state level. Part of this is the generally change in enthusiasm among Dems and Repubs in presidential and mid-term elections. Part of this (decreasing) belief among Wisconsinites that local Republicans have not gone as extreme as their national counterparts. Remember Wisconsin is the birthplace of the Republican party. A lot of people, especially swing voters, still associate our state Republicans with moderates from past eras like Tommy Thompson, Tom Petri and Steve Gundersen, even while they reject Republicans from out-of-state. One reason Tammy Baldwin successfully defeated Tommy Thompson in our recent Senate race, was that she was able to paint him as having been transformed into more in line with national Republicans than with the relatively moderate tone he took when he still represented Wisconsin. Paul Ryan’s popularity in his home district has decreased the more he becomes a national figure. The 2012 presidential race helped tarnish his reputation at home (his home district and even his own neighborhood voted against him), though redistricting to give Ryan an advantage in suburban Milwaukee, saved his congressional seat. Wisconsin tends to like their Republicans when they appear as moderate hometown heroes, but don’t like them at the national level. The thinking among a lot of Wisconsinites, especially within the shrinking “center” that decides elections, is that local Democrats (or ‘Madison liberals’) are the extremists, whereas local Republicans are the moderates. Those designations tend to swap at the federal level, probably because of irrational social issues and cultural resentments (ie- local Democrats are possibly seen as over-educated, wealthy elites, whereas national Republicans are seen as country club corporatists). These irrational factors are only exasperated by the brain drain and aging populations in states like Wisconsin, as the young and educated leave for greener pastures leaving behind a population that oftentimes is motivated by the sense that the world is passing them by.

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Wisconsin, home of Bob La Follette. What a turnaround.

Also home to Joseph McCarthy and the John Birch Society. It’s a politically schizophrenic state, and there’s long been a substantial “Reagan Democrat” voter bloc in its more industrial quadrants (which are now pretty much post-industrial).

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This gives a different perspective to the assorted governors’ races—

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That’s true, but the Marquette University poll is done correctly and has a good track record. It’s not Gallup deliberately chasing skewed numbers to generate headlines.

This ridiculous “plagiarism” scandal is getting far more attention from the pathetic media here, as well as being the subject of coordinated ads by the Walker campaign and the Repugnicant Governors Ass-ociation.

It’s gonna be tough. The right wing is determined to take our state permanently out of the Blue column, and will stop and nothing, whether legal or illegal to do it. Low information voters are getting smothered by negative ads.

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“New Poll Shows Scott Walker With Widest Lead In Months”

New Poll Shows WI Continues to Get Waaaay Stupider

FIFY

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It depends on what part of the state that ad is playing in. The few remaining swing voters in the state, especially in the northwoods and in southwestern rural areas, will see her (limited) praise of Reagan as proving her strength, independence and fair-mindedness. (“Hey, she can even praise people on the other side of the aisle. That takes a lot of courage. She must be more independent and moderate than the divisive Walker…”) Of course the trick for Burke campaign is to be able to do/say the things that are needed to convince the 4% of swing voters to support her, without turning off the 46% of Democrats that she also needs to win. Walker has the same problem, though at this point Walker’s base is more willing to enthusiastically (desperately?) give Walker the benefit of the doubt and wiggle room he needs to get re-elected. For example, the Walker base demands that he do even more to cripple unions, specifically private sector unions, in his second-term (“right-to-work” anyone?). They also demand that he do more to fight against gay marriage and ban abortions in our state. But they are willing to give him a pass when he denies support for “right-to-work” legislation and makes an attempt to focus his disdain for labor unions solely on public unions while pretending he totally supports unions in the private sector. They are also willing to give him a pass when he claims that he doesn’t really care about the regressive social issues that animate so much his base.

There’s a video out there, part of the documentary “As Goes Janesville” that shows Walker talking to one of his major wealthy donors. She asks him what can be done to transform Wisconsin into a “completely red state, and work on these unions, and become a right-to-work” state. He responds that he’s working on it and is utilizing a “divide and conquer” strategy to pit public unions against private unions. This video is widely available. It’s been reported on (albeit it briefly) in our state media. And yet people are still willing to believe that Walker would ever support unpopular “right-to-work” legislation or utilize a “divide and conquer” strategy in favor of his billionaire backers. When Tom Barrett brought up this video as hard evidence in the 2012 elections, the general consensus was that Barrett was being mean. Walker actually accused Barrett of being divisive by pointing out that Walker himself openly acknowledged his own “divide and conquer” strategy. Even more surprising, is that the private sector unions that endorsed Walker in 2010, based on his pledge to them to never support anti-private union legislation, still continued to support him even after this video was widely seen, because it would just be too impolite (and perhaps too psychologically damaging) to admit in public that Walker had lied to them in private.

With Walker you have a classic case of “Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes.” It’s effective, but only because his base doesn’t care that he’s dishonest. They love the fact that his dishonesty is so cavalierly tossed at his political enemies. They love the fact that he so successfully trolls liberals. The fact that liberals get so angry about him, just justifies his value to them. So far Burke does not have that advantage, in no small part because she needs to distinguish herself from Walker as someone that is moderate, willing to work with the other side, and not divisive. It’s a fine line she needs to walk, whereas Walker so far has the privilege of being able to use a cudgel to bash Wisconsin while maintaining plausible deniability among Wisconsin media and swing-voters that may not necessarily like him, but feel the need to trust him anyway.

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This is so discouraging. It should obvious to everyone by now that Walker is totally corrupt and cares more about political cronyism then governing the state.

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STUPID PARTY Reps love crooks and cheaters, lately. Walker has been doing crooked things, all over WI and still Reps don’t care. E-mails prove it, in the John Doe stuff. They have some nerve to try and bash Dems voters, as low info. The polls are still close.

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And it’s clear that at this point Walker’s campaign is solely focused on suppressing the vote and turning off low information voters, through unceasing negative ads. That’s why this recent polls show a tie among registered voters, but Walker with a lead among likely voters. Walker’s only path to victory is to make sure that registered voters don’t translate into likely voters between now and November 4. Burke’s job is to motivate registered voters to support her and actually get to the polls. Both jobs can be accomplished, but it’s a hell of a lot easier convincing people to stay home and not to vote than it is convincing people to vote.

Burke is going to have to spend the next five-weeks painting herself in a positive and inspiring light, while also having to distinguish herself against Walker through negative messaging. Luckily, this is where she so far has excelled. However, Walker can just sling mud to get people to stop paying attention and blow smoke to confuse anyone that is paying attention. This is also where Walker excels.

I remain optimistic that our mostly right-wing editorial boards will have enough decency and ethics to call Walker out on his abysmal record and anti-Wisconsin style of politics, while acknowledging the necessity for a new Governor. I also remain optimistic that Burke will pull ahead after debating Walker head on. But it’s just as much of an uphill battle now as it was 6-months ago. With an electorate this divided, with the economic data this obfuscated, and with the polling this close 5-weeks out from election day, every minor misstep and missed opportunity could swing the race. At this point Walker has a bigger margin of error than Burke does.

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This might explain things somewhat. This poll shows that voters in Wisconsin don’t think Walker cares about them at a margin of 54-44 percent. This same poll shows that Walker is someone that can get things done at a margin of 62-36 percent. Voters in Wisconsin slightly disapprove of Walker’s job in office at a margin of 49-48%. So voters don’t think Walker cares about them, but think he’s effective about not caring for them, but can’t agree if they approve of the way he has effectively not cared about them. Meanwhile, there’s still a good 15-20% of the electorate that doesn’t know enough about Mary Burke to draw an accurate comparison. That’s both a blessing and a curse for Burke. She has room to grow, but only 5-weeks to do it. Walker’s image with the state is only going down, but it may not decline enough between now and November to make an impact.

Also, there’s a small, but decisive minority among our voters that think all politicians are corrupt and self-interested, so they’ll excuse Walker’s corruption no matter how obvious, or they think that it’s still too soon to judge Walker, either out of deference to authority, or because they feel the charges of corruption and cronyism could just be examples of corruption and cronyism among Walker’s critics. Our business-minded media haven’t really gone out of there way to keep Walker honest, with most coverage sliding from “give Walker the benefit of the doubt” to “Who can really say? Who are we to judge?” A great example of this… Back in 2010 newspapers and editorials were touting Walker’s pledge to create 250,000 new jobs in one term as the cornerstone of his campaign and a sing of his bold leadership and vision. Now that Walker has barely reached 40% of this goal, the goal he himself once set as the standard that he should be judged on, the same newspapers and editorial boards tend to say that no governor really has the power to create jobs and it is simply not fair that voters hold Walker accountable for his failed promises. They basically went from arguing that voters gave Walker a mandate to radically alter Wisconsin, based on his single pledge to create 250,000 jobs, to now claiming that no one took that pledge seriously anyway and so it shouldn’t effect peoples decisions to give Walker another mandate. It’s infuriating, but symptomatic of larger political and cultural trends.

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Thank you very much for this information.

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Thanks for that, it helps a bit, but coming from Vermont the home state of earnest,and sincere politicians like Bernie Sanders Wisconsin still seems like a basket case to me.

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Nah, no and nope. Wisconsin is not the progressive LaFollette state it used to be. It has become more of a typical Midwestern, work hard and you will succeed, white state that gives the benefit of the doubt until overwhelming evidence says otherwise. The partisan shut down of the Walker investigation removed the source of doubt on Wanker and the money pouring in is placing it squarely on Burke. The segment of voters who will decide this race are just tuning in as the Koch/dark money buys Wanker air time. These voters don’t take the time to analyze Wanker’s record and are blind to his failures and intentions to shift tax burdens their way. In short, last minute voters are the low information white middle class voters who will go with Wanker unless another shoe drops. Plus those voters who are disenfranchised by voter suppression should fall out of the likely voter demographic.

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Yup. Nice analysis. The partisan decision to halt the investigation into Wanker’s colluding with outside interests hurt the effort to put Scotty Scumbag in the light of day. My response. HeY Mr. Middle Class White Wiscoinsin voter. Wait until Wanker enacts ALEC’s regressive tax policies. Pay up, then STFU.