Keep it up. 538 has it at 90.8 - 9.2 with Georgia at 65.3% blue.
Yes, Georgia.
Don’t believe it. All of Trump’s millions of followers in PA just drove over to Detroit to hear his speech today. (Or maybe they just didn’t pay their phone bills, so they couldn’t answer the poll.)
Unskew the polls!
Yes, that’s the “now-cast”. I advise focusing on the “polls-plus” because the election isn’t today and, not least, to avoid anyone on our side becoming lackadaisical. And there we see that HRC’s chances in November are 75.8% and Georgia is still very much pink (31.1%).
Lots of work to do in the next three months. No overconfidence: remember Brexit.
And they’ve got McGinty up by two over Toomey. Within margin of error, but not good if you’re the incumbent.
Maybe it’s time for a passive-aggressive Trump endorsement for Toomey…where he reads it like it’s a hostage note?
Yes, certainly. I’ll submit that this is far from a typical election though, and historical data might not be terribly valid. When was the last time you saw members of the GOP turning against their nominee?
From TPM PollTracker
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/election/2016/us-president
STRONGLY CLINTON 253
FAVORS CLINTON 55
LEAN CLINTON 10
TOSSUP 41
LEAN TRUMP 25
FAVORS TRUMP 0
STRONGLY TRUMP 154
It seems Trump is losing everything that isn’t strongly in favor.
It’s interesting that the two other candidates don’t seem to take support away from either Clinton or Trump, at least in this poll. I wonder which way that 14% or so undecided will ultimately break, especially if those other candidates don’t get on the ballot in PA (or are they already?).
Since the polls are obviously “rigged,” I think Tovarishch Drumpf should spend some of Putin’s money there.
It is also worth noting that the polls-only forecast has shifted to giving her a 50.9% chance of winning Georgia when she had previously been losing. So the numbers seem to be trending her way.
Edit: For comparison on July 31st, the polls-only forecast had the odds at Trump 80.1% - Hillary 19.9%.
There has also been quite a bit of hubbub (yeah, you can tell my age, can’t you? LOL!) about Clinton being 7 points ahead in Georgia. Although I personally think there is a 50%+ chance that Georgia will stay in the GOP column, the fact that Trump is behind at ANY leg of this election in a state like GA makes me think Trump is in far greater trouble electorally than the MSM want to tell us to believe, since it totally defeats their horserace unicorny wishes that they constantly try to foist upon the American electorate.
This is exactly why I was going to post that I hope the campaign doesn’t withdraw resources from PA as they did in VA and CO. We need to “run up the score” in PA as much as possible to help McGinty upset Toomey. Same applies to any state where we have a chance to knock off an incumbent GOP Senator.
I read a bunch of articles last year and early this year about how this was going to be a big year for Dems retaking the Senate by a comfortable margin (which would still only give them a tiny chance at keeping it after 2018, as opposed to none at all), but we’re certainly not seeing that happen yet. Hopefully enough states with GOP incumbents will turn into a blowout to give us something more than a bare majority after all, but at this point there’s no guarantee of turning the Senate blue for even HRC’s first two years, which would be so important.
I wonder if you can buy RC Cola and Moonpies in Georgia with rubles?
The main reason I want Hillary to take Georgia is as a bit of revenge against that traitorous piece of hyena shit ex-Senator Saxby Chambliss. Schadenfreude can be even more delectable when it is breaded and southern fried.
New poll released today has Clinton up by 7 over Trump in Georgia. I still have doubts, but maybe?
Note: dommyluc beat me to it (and I didn’t realize).
Oh, I’m also thinking of this prick. Remember him?
Hard to see how Donald has a viable path absent Pennsylvania. Will Penn locked down, she has many ways to win.
I posed a similar question…If it starts to look like she has this in the bag, her campaign and the Dems might begin to throw extra resources at SEN and house races…even in states where she is a shoe-in…
And thank heaven it isn’t typical because I don’t appreciate our Republic being in the most danger it’s been literally in living memory, and I very much doubt you do either, so even a 9 or 10 percent chance of Trump winning is far too high for me.
Anyway, “polls-plus” tries to account for a lot of things we need to consider: presidential popularity, third term for the same party, state of the economy (not exactly fantastic), etc., and of course can’t figure in unknowables like October surprises, Russian interference, and so on.
I like encouraging polls as much as the next guy and I don’t blame you in the least for celebrating. Just so long as we all keep our nose to the grindstone.
We can’t take any chances or anything for granted trump and this current crop of gop
[never mind - I was looking at the “polls only”]
but I agree about how readily Dems become complacent and we cannot allow one single voter to just skip the election this year because it looks like it’s “in the bag” - this needs to be landslide victory - at least with the popular vote - so that there is a clear mandate!
Edit to fix post