I think the only purpose these early polls might have is to identify a trend (if there is one) constantly going up or down. Beyond that it’s way to early for these to be predictive of the 2020 outcome
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I think that Warren will be in a much better position than Hillary was – she’ll be able to say stuff like “Oh Donald, the American people are tired of your antics. Even your supporters think you should shut down your twitter account, and start acting like a adult” and get away with, because most people are sick and tired of Trump.
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Dream on. America is not a left-wing country. If Warren wins the nomination and continues to support “Medicare for All” that requires evryone to give up their current insurance, she is not only toast, but burned toast.
Beggars cannot be choosers. We put ourselves into the beggar position when we failed to elect Hillary Clinton. And now we think that we can miraculously elect far-left candidates like Sanders and Warren, and that even if we did, we could miraculously enact far-left positions over a Senate that, if not Republican, will be able to veto by filibuster?
First, let’s get back into the game by electing Biden. His four years (if less he will nominate a good VP) will help get rid of the stench of Trump and prepare the ground for a new class of Democrat in 2024. I think Buttigeig might do very well in 2024.
Patience, grasshoppers. Patience and brains.
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Warren is inspirational. Bernie is repetitious.
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except that she doesn’t support that. Indeed, the only area that she doesn’t seem to have a comprehensive plan is “what to do about health care”.
Reading between the lines of her various public comments, I’d say she was philosophically for a single payer system – but takes an incrementalist approach to it.
And btw. public opinion polling has found that most American’s favor “leftist” policies and proposals. They may call themselves “moderates” but when you ask them to compare the policies and platforms of Dems and the GOP, Dems win overwhelmingly.
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Yes, quite right!
But here is the significance of the poll taking place right now. Flump is down 10-20 points in lots of states. He shtick is wearing thin. If he is perceived as weak, Rethugs in congress, concerned only with their own asses, will start challenging him. That is the implication of the polls, I think. It could be a small thing or a big thing. I don’t expect Repugs to do anything to help this country, but a weaker Flump will spell disunity in the party. If that happens, I hope the Dems can take advantage of it…
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Polls are never, ever predictive.
They are always a snapshot in time, and they can show trends.
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Why does “patience” (and its close cousin “pragmatic”) always translate into having to support candidates who won’t do what needs to be done? (I think it is years of lame half-measures that have put us in the current dilemma.) I will be specific in noting that one of the things that needs to be done is to challenge the moneyed classes and the big corporations.
I will vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election, but in the primary, I am voting for the candidate I most prefer. (At the moment that is Warren, and certainly not Biden.)
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Y’all can talk about the comparative numbers between the Dems all you want, but right now, I’m just digging into the numbers and the crosstabs and imagining the pitter-patter of panic it must be inducing in the tiny, undersized heart of Sean Hannity and the rest of them.
Because the one real hard truth that no Republican who can read and understand numbers can avoid is this: In the one uncooked poll Republicans are compelled to take seriously, Donald Trump only has the support of, at most, 48% of the white people. That’s against Kamala Harris. No Republican can win with the support of 48% of the white people. With 54% of the electorate in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by three million and eked out his freak victory. That number is the a peal of doom.
And this is, of course, why Parscale will not hesitate to cooperate with Russia in whatever hacking he can and do everything possible to get them to pull out all the stops. And, btw, don’t think for a minute that the leaking of the story about how we’ve penetrated Russia’s infrastructure and have kept the details from Trump was a direct response to the IC seeing Russia ramping up to make direct attacks on ballot integrity and lacking any other way of warning them to back the fuck off with a traitorous shitweasel in the Oval.
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Plus his schtick is old and disrespectful and racist. It only appeals to his base and he needs more than just the base to win again. She is better off addressing it one time and moving on. He cannot debate her on policy or an inclusive vision for the country because he has none. He is ignorant. Whoever the nominee is will debate him and the conversation needs to be about policies and how those policies affect all Americans.
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Especially this far out. They are usually better the closer we get to the actual voting.
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Trump’s people are so upset by the polls that they are firing the polling companies. Shooting the messenger is not a good strategy.
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Well, if that doesn’t work, they’ll fire the American people and replace us with Russian bots. It may already have happened in Florida, North Carolina, and other places.
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OT: but this is a brilliant & funny & irreverent tweet thread. There is truth to it as well and posting two in the thread…
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Wonder if he’ll try to fire Fox? He’s going to be getting nasty about them, they’re not helping him.
@leftcoaster That is too funny. 
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Yep.
Morning Consult says there are 5 states Trump carried where his net approval rating is now -7 or worse [AZ, IA, MI, PA, WI]. And zero states that he lost where it is now positive.
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Their are actually three “quality” polls out recently, FOX news - although I have begain to doubt their “quality” - NBC/WSJ, and Quinnipiac. They show Trump’s approval as 45/53 (FOX), 44/53 (NBC/WSJ), 42/53 (Q-poll).
FOX shows the race as 32(Biden), 13 (Sanders), 9 (warren), 8 (Buuttigieg), 8 (Harris). There is no “collapse” in Biden’s support, he was at 35% in the last FOX poll, 31% in the poll before that. Sanders is the one whose support has collapsed.
FOX shows Biden beating Trump by 10% (49 to 39), Sanders by 9% (49 to 40), Warren by 2% (43% to 41%), Harris and Buuttigieg by 1% (42 to 41%).
NBC did not do head to head match ups, they instead asked about the feelings about each candidate for president,
-Trump has 37% “enthusiastic/comfortable” (aka positive) and 52% "very uncomfortable. the rest - 10% “had some reservations” about Trump.
-Biden had 40% positive, 31% very uncomfortable, and 25% “some reservations”
- Sanders had 33% positive, 41% very uncomfortable, and 22% “some reservations”
- Warren had 34% positive, 33% very uncomfortable, and 17% some reservations
- NBC did not ask re Harris/Buttiteg
Q-Poll showed:
+13% Biden (53-40)
+9 Sanders (51-42)
+8 Harris (49-41)
+7 Warren (49-42)
+5 Buttigieg (47-42).
None of these three polls shows a softening of the support to Biden, nor that there is a better candidate. In fact the only difference in the polling is that FOX has Sanders doing almost as well as Biden, while other polling showing Biden with less negatives and more positive support (and as such doing better vs. Trump).
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I believe that like the rest of us, others are tired of his haranguing and inhumane separating children from their parents, and tariffs and lousy, undefined foreign policy.
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I pointed out that there was a collapse in enthusiasm for Biden, as shown in the FoxNews poll – which, as you have noted, is consistent with the other major polls.
I want AZ to go to a Dem in 2020. It’s strictly for petty/personal reasons. But I’d love it if my Trump loving cousins who moved from NJ to AZ (because NJ was filled with dumb liberals) were to end up in a state that rejects their precious president in 2020 
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