The only poll that counts is the one taken on 8 November. All the rest of this is noise that could truly affect that outcome. Complacency could be fatal here.
The press usually doesn’t get around to mentioning the Electoral College until October. Guess this one is going to be such a big blowout that the horserace aspect is being discarded before labor Day.
That means Trump could win Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine’s Second Congressional district, and Nebraska’s First Congressional district and still lose.
The states that he will likely lose come late September.
Start hemming those turkeys in now. If there is a chance to get Grassley’s seat in that circle, go for it.
That means Trump could win Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine’s Second Congressional district, and Nebraska’s First Congressional district and still lose.
There seems to be a typo in the original article as Cook lists Nebraska’s First Congressional district in both the Toss Up and Solidly Republican categories in the breakdown at the end, but in the article proper lists Nebraska’s Second District as the Toss Up, which seems to fit with coverage from 538.
And now even acclaimed non-partisan analyst Charlie Cook has moved into the “rigged” column. Shameless!
I heard somewhere that the orange ferret that normally rests on Drumpf’s head has left the campaign.
Trump: So, if I win more states than The Crooked, I still lose? How is our system fair? I might as well vote for her as well.
Especially Nevada which 538 call for Clinton by 7 points atm.
Today’s numbers: 89% chance for HRC to win the election…
Highlights: Georgia and Arizona continue to strengthen for HRC, Missouri and South Carolina continue to move towards the tipping point and now the Dakotas, Montana, Kansas and even freaking Alaska softening.
Also today, we’re starting to talk about what a Clinton Landslide would look like:
C’mon Dems…WE STILL HAVE TO VOTE!!!
Trump could lose Utah and Georgia.
Game over.
I don’t give a damn what Charlie Cook says about the horse race. Democrats have to work this election as though their lives depend on the outcome. We need to sweep the nation and extend Hillary’s coattails all the way down to state legislatures.
x1000 LIKES…we need to GET OUT THERE and work it!!!
Well, even they admit they are being quite generous to Trump with this Electoral Map. Arizona and Georgia should be be listed as toss ups, and Florida should probably be listed as leaning D. But its so early in the cycle that I don’t think they are really comfortable with piling on that heavy just yet.
Which is kind of a problem I see cropping up in the analysis of a lot of polling places. There is an urge to discount the snap shot of where we are at any point in time, because historically such and such state is republican or much closer, and surely SOMETHING will sway it back in Trump’s favor.
But the whole point of poll analysis is not to be Madam SeeFuture, but rather to understand where we are…RIGHT NOW. And Right Now, Hillary has been leading in Florida by 4-6 points in every poll. Trump has only posted one lead in Georgia…with the last four pols being tied, Hillary +4, Hillary +8, Trump +4. Thats a toss up.
If something happens and some states move back towards historical trends of the past few years…then you analyze that WHEN it happens.
Trump: But the rallies I hold are full of cheering people who love ME. How can I lose?
We need to sweep the nation and extend Hillary’s coattails all the way down to state legislatures.
I hear where you’re coming from but I don’t see it happening that far down. In fact, I think that in some states there will be a bit of ticket splitting. (I’m thinking of N. Carolina).
Ironically it was exactly this sort of ignore the polls and go with historical trends approach that led so many analysts to miss Trump’s win in the Republican primary. And now the same approach is being used to over-state his chances in the general election.
Precisely 
The polls didn’t like in the primaries…just nobody believed them. They aren’t lying now, but nobody wants to believe it can be this far gone so early.
It’s frightening to think that if Trumpf did sweep those states he might only be 2 electoral votes away from being elected.