Discussion for article #246213
Too late WSJ. The primary is tomorrow.
I don’t think they are goosing the numbers. He is starting to show weakness at a time when other candidates are doing a full court press. So some decline is inevitable.
If they are goosing,it would actually help Trump, as it lowers expectations…either he wins by 5 and he can say that was what was predicted, or he wins by more and he can say he did better than expected.
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This is important: this MEANS something, because it deviates strongly from the Polltracker aggregate… or, or, or, it means NOTHING, because it deviates so strongly from the Polltracker aggregate it has to be an outlier… or, or, or, or, it COULD mean something but nobody can agree on exactly what.
“F*** it! We’ll do it live!”, tomorrow.
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Thank you.
OMG! He’s only polling slightly lower than #2 and #3 combined!
I think it’s the well-considered analysis that I love most about TPM.
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I can’t believe TPM is still pushing this narrative that Trump finally jumped the shark in the last debates and it somehow weakened him. All the polls show that he will win SC by a comfortable margin. The real race is for second place, in which Rubio may very well displace Cruz, recovering the momentum he lost in NH. Kasich, too, has momentum and will probably capture fourth place, dealing a humiliating blow to Jeb!'s campaign.
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Given that the WSJ is now owned by Murdock and that NBC can no longer be considered objective and adding to that the fact that the WSJ/NBC in a different poll claimed that Cruz was leading Trump nationally when 2 other polls taken at the same time showed that Trump had an even bigger lead nationally, I am inclined to throw out any poll from the WSJ
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No other poll shows this, likely an outlier.
Anything with a FOX Entertainment or a Wall Street Journal stamp on it is not to be taken seriously.
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As long as Trump and Cruz are 1 and 2 in some order, I’m fine with this. Bonus points if Bush finishes 4-5 after doing the full court press with his dips&@t brother.
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Oh please, Big Door has the Cracker Vote sewn up.
You think?
See if it were more than just one poll that confirmed it, yeah I think it would lower expectations. As it stands, I’m not sure it would.
But, if they are goosing numbers, they appear to have their strategy right. Two polls in the same week showing Trump tanking … including the day just before the primaries. That would be the way to plant a seed of doubt.
Oh, from your lips to FSM’s ears:
Bonus points if Bush finishes 4-5 after doing the full court press with his dips&@t brother.
$10 says he goes full-bore racist about immigration over the weekend in a play to stop this bleeding.
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Planting a seed of doubt to whom? How many potential Rump voters are on the fence?
mAth arE hArd!
Please if there’s a god will you shorten the election cycle and make polls illegal!
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About 4.5% undecided according to RCP.
That’s not enough to pull an upset even if they all broke against him, but it may be enough to swing Murdoch’s boy Rubio into a strong 3rd showing and allow the donor class to rally around one candidate while convincing Jeb’s donors to cut him loose. They’ll badly need to do all that soon to have a chance against the theocrat and white trash champ.
This is all conspiracy hypothesizing of course so take it with a grain of salt.
I would argue that that 4.5% aren’t potential Rump voters AND what voters he does have, won’t be disheartened by this poll.