Discussion for article #227836
Sounds like Nate used his personal insights rather than actual data.
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6 points is considered practically a landslide in US presidential elections. I know it’s barely within the margin of error, but that’s not “close” by any rational estimate.
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Funny how a bit of notoriety is turning this guy into what he hates
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I know - look at the “official pictures” that are used on articles about him.
He owned up to it. Sloppy, but self aware.
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Nate’s biorhythms are bottoming out. He’ll be back.
I regret the error of having behaved like a television pundit.
This would make a great line of greeting cards…
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Nate, it’s pronounced “poundit…”
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What’s lower than a TV pundit?
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A TV host/pundit…
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Some polls (including the average of polls) have it closer. Plus there is a lot of uncertainty around voter turnout (What’s the LV model for a secession decision?). Smart money is probably on “no”, but it’s far from certain.
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That’s only one poll, a single datum point isn’t much to go by. This could go down to the wire, as in late results from remote islands. We are holding our breath over here in Europe.
It’s remarkable isn’t it?
I thought it was “pundint.”
Nate!!!
What’s the mattter with ya?!?
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Yes it is. This last argument he got into with Wong was the kicker for me. Wong predicted every race perfectly in the last election - Silver not so much. A bit jealous ya think
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53 - 47 = “barely edging”?
I know a lot of candidates who would love that to be their margin in the upcoming elections…
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Could be similar (either way) to the Quebec referendum of a few years ago.
The Better Together campaign has been trounced, though - Nate Silver shouldn’t beat himself up too much; at the time, a Yes win looked remote.
After the establishment completely bolloxed up by under estimating Nationalist feeling, being way too late out of the blocks and struggling to create positive reasons for the Union (which hugely outweigh the fluffy romance of independence), they have overseen a political shambles of gigantic proportions.
Both major parties will suffer a backlash (internal and external) following this fiasco.
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Barring a “major crisis in England,” Silver said the “yes” side — those in favor of Scotland seceding from the United Kingdom — had “virtually no chance” of winning.
I think he escapes with that qualification: “major crisis” is probably a good description of the “Better Together” omnishambles.
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