Seems to me from the original article, he was not making an off-the-cuff pandit-esque remark but rather an observation based on his analysis of then available data. Now that he is on the verge of being wrong (completely if the vote is yes and substantially if the vote is no but close) he thinks it is better to blame this on an impulsive response on his part.
āA survey released on Thursday showed support for the ānoā side barely edging the pro-independence faction, 53 percent to 47 percent.ā
Thatās a difference of 6 points, which is probably well outside the margin of error. Hardly a ābarely edgingā advantage.
Cāmon TPM. Youāre better than thisā¦or used to be anyway.
There are so many reasons that what Nate Silver does is just intellectual masturbation. āWell, my predictions would have been correct if Iād included X data.ā. Well, yeah, humans arenāt computers. You canāt predict what theyāll do a few months from now, much less a year. Polls taken a week before an election are probably pretty accurate, but all the rest of this long term prognosticating is just utter bullshit.
Do you mean the feud with Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium? I do like to read both Sam Wang and Nate Silver because I like to aggregate my poll aggregators.
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Right, just another one of those pundits who shoots from the hip without dataā¦ and then owns up to it when he gets caught.
Oh, wait, I canāt actually recall another pundit who owns up to it. Iām sure there are some here or there. Can you remind me?
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I also aggregate my aggregators. Someone should aggregate our aggregates of aggregatesā¦
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A congressman.
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Plus Wang is drawing increasing attention for his current prediction. Iād say Silver is jealous, verging on desperate.
Isnāt that like diversifying your mutual fund investments?
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A congĀ®essman.
jw1
Ann Coulter
Nateās problem, and I sympathize with his plight, is that his gig only plays to a real audience once every four years. Then everybodyās his groupie. The other three years itās āNate who?ā
I think Nateās ego has him envisioning himself as the worlds next Nostradamus.
Celebrity pollster? Narcism + polling = ?
A pundit? You just demonstrated self-awareness. Youāre not there yet, Nate.
seeing that as of 9:00 pacific timeā¦the no side is ahead and not just by a hairā¦ maybe we wait before writing Nate off.
one of the most depressing trends on any message board is posters ticked with pollster types who donāt tell them what they want to hear.
weāll know in a few hours.
Scottish Independence Refendum falls, 55-45 voting āNoā.
Nate stepped on his dick when it came to opining on climate change, but it appears as though he was dead right about the Scottish vote. So much for everybody here writing him off.
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Sounds aggravatingā¦