538 gives Survey Monkey online polls a grade of C- overall, based on analysis of 11 polls in 2016 compared with other polling organizations. Survey Monkey seems to focus on marketing research and features user-generated polling at low price. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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Is it time to spiral into my 538 addiction again?
Agree.
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Wouldn’t it be funny if (Dem candidate TBD) swept into the White House in a couple years with 2-3 vacant SCOTUS seats that a Dem Senate had been holding for her?
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No.
That was reality
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Good thing that the DNC and DCCC combined are paying Hillary Clinton over $2 million dollars for the email list, voter data, and software produced by Hillary for America during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Because it is all about sucking money from the rubes, win or lose.
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Sure. And let’s compare and contrast all of the Democrats for whom Hillary raised money and campaigned for. Now how 'bout Bernie - what did he do for other Democrats? Right - not a damn thing.
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Its a pretty hard map. https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/
Though Republicans are not doing themselves any favors.
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I’d take a look at Cook’s rankings before getting too confident.
TL;DR summary: No Dem seats in the Lean+ R categories, but 5 in “Toss Up”: FL-Nelson, IN-Donnelly, MO-McCaskill, ND-Heitkamp, WV-Manchin. Likewise no Rep seats in Lean+D, but 3 in “Toss Up” (the three reported on above).
We can assume that Cook is slightly trailing (they have a reputation to uphold and so are not going to over-react to the latest polling this far out), but we need to take not just those three R seats but also keep every single one of those D seats currently in “Toss Up”. It is a tall order, no matter how the polling is looking right now, and will absolutely derail if Dems as a whole get too cocky and assume they’ve already won a race which is more than half a year away.
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THIS is the biggest concern!!!
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Granted there is caution as it is only April. But I have a feeling that more people are getting involved in these midterms than they have in years. #rememberinnovember
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Sorry, Michelle, your lofty sentiments are noble but we Democrats need to be able to match the cheap shot, sucker punch, below the belt, razor blades in their hair, lying Republican campaign playbook. No prisoners.
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OT but…
trump called into "Fox 'n Friends I hear and from what I read at this link it turned, for me, into a schadenfreude fest…
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It’s all about getting the Dems to actually vote.
It’s all about getting the Dems to actually vote.
It’s all about getting the Dems to actually vote.
It’s all about getting the Dems to actually vote.
Turnout is everything.
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True, especially since we are also likely to see Trump supporters, nominal Trump supporters and ambivalent Republicans staying home on November 6 (and perhaps in 2020); this has been one of the key stories of our victories of late.
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I like the little that I’ve seen from Ruben Gallego, the MoC from the Phoenix area. Maybe there’s a candidate from a less blue part of the state more ideally suited for state-wide election or perfectly suited for McSalley (who would probably switch races). I’ll add that a second AZ Senate race means that Arpaio/ Ward would be one of the nominees (though probably against Sinema).
I don’t think that a second race would be good for the McSally campaign in its turnout effort, but I could be completely wrong. I think this turnout consideration is a bigger deal than whether the second Democrat is Gallego or someone else who’s presentable. Arpaio/ Ward could help turn out the crazies on Election Day (who’d vote R in other races like McSally’s), and I’m guessing that this extra lift would be smaller than the dropoff from depressed turnout from moderates (or moderates willing to vote D in that election who might try it out in McSally’s) because Trump won the 2016 R nomination with a plurality and his hardest core loyalists will be voting regardless.
Yeah, but since December Trump’s net approval has closed by 4 (-17 to -13) and his approval has gone up 2.5. His average of adjusted polls (on 538) over the past two weeks is 40.7 and 42.2.
Worse is the generic dem vote. since December it has gone from +13 to +7.
What have they done in that span? There has been nothing but scandal after scandal for the last 5 months and they’re improving!
I’m worried there is outrage fatigue in this country and Trump and the GOP corruption and complicity is just normalized.
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The Trump GOP’s followers have come home entirely to support the crooks. Special elections this year tell us normal Americans are voting.
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Yeah, but Trump will be their white knight this year, just watch.
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Well said and I fully agree. I would like the Democrats to run someone younger in 2020.
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