Discussion: More Good News For Senate Dems In New Polling

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Let’s hope the Trump GOP Senate candidates stay tethered to Trump.

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Likely Dem pickups this year in the Senate: AZ (two there perhaps), NV, TN. Possible pickup: TX. Likely losses: none!

I know, a huge number of Democrats are running in red states this year but, the fact is, the Trump affect is so toxic that a bowl of fruit will be able to beat most Republicans by November. I also know that overconfidence is a terrible thing in any election, but it’s not as though undecided voters are spending much time reading these comments, so I wouldn’t worry too much about that either.

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This news, and the hope for some Friday indictments, makes me smile…

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That big 5-0. We’re a ways out, and one poll shouldn’t change your priors that much, but my prior was that Heller was cooked.

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“But with polls like these, Democrats have to be feeling quietly confident that they might really have a shot to pull the inside straight they need to take back the Senate.”

Remember how “quietly confident” we were in 2016? Work hard! Give everything you can!

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Add to that: “And don’t take the month of August off!”

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Careful on the Democratic side of things: Missouri, West Virginia and Florida are states we will have to work hard to retain.

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Heller is going to struggle to get to 45%. Rosen has to get her name out there (which she will) but given where the other races are trending in NV (Gov/AG) Rosen’s number won’t be far off that mark. She’ll get to 50% (likely 53%). Sinema looks strong in AZ because Maricopa County is turning blue. We see this in Hiral Tiperneni’s close race in Joe Arpaio’s crib. If you assume/extrapolate Tiperneni’s 4.8% loss in AZ-08 to the rest of the state for Sinema, Sinema would win the AZ Senate race by 10 points. That she is not facing an incumbent makes her job a little easier than Rosen’s. However, Trump is so unpopular there in NV that Rosen will ascend by the time that people focus.

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They have to to get through their primaries.

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Cue the Naderites, Steiniacs, and Sarandonistas with a bothsiderism, “corporatist”, wet blanket in 3, 2, 1…

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Who do the Dem’s have to run for John McCain’s seat when that need arises?

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Bro, that was harsh…

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Yeah, honestly, where I’d really prefer to be if I was running was three points behind with 25% or so undecided.

But if I can’t have that, yeah, I’d rather be ahead by any amount than behind with no undecideds.

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Historically, the opposition party doesn’t lose Senate seats when the president’s poll numbers are so low so consistently.

As the Trumpocracy continues to implode, the GOP’s chances of holding the Senate grow more remote.

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But oh, so true!

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You missed “neoliberal.”

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Drink!

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I predict NV and AZ will be seen as gimme pickups by October and we will be focusing on states like Texas, Tennesee, and Mississippi instead.

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Yes i t was. And when Biden announces in 2019 he’s running for pres what will @irasdad have to say?