Nah…democrats can change the rules with a majority…which 50/50 gives them. They can demand all they want.
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I agree with plucky. The acceleration to the Ds in the last days of early voting is a clear sign of strength. It stuns me that the media loves calling the horse race, loves the horse race, but ignores the horses. When you get to the final stretch and one horse bursts away in a dual, it’s over. That’s exactly what happened in NV, NC, FL and most other early voting states. It’s true for a horse that’s close and coming from behind, and for a leader who opens a wider gap from a pursuer.
The only troubling early voting state to me is CO, where the Dems built a large lead but now the GOP passed them with a late rush, at least head-to-head. But I think a lot of the independent vote in CO leans D, or they wouldn’t have a D Guv and D Senator, So it might be a late charge too little. We’ll see.
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And now a word from Dr. Sam the Man:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/
He gets into the nuts and bolts of PEC vs 538. It’s a little geeky but very interesting. It’s not that Nate’s wrong, it’s that our interpretation of what he’s telling us is off the mark. The probable vs the possible. It’s a very interesting read.
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Here’s my question – if it’s a tie – are there any wobbly dems we’re going to have to worry about in the next few years. Keeping them in our voting block?
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Exactly. He is another Lieberman. I think he could ruin it all. And that is not to say there might be one other non-conformist. Democrats are famous for it,
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Yep. Manchin from WV.
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50/50 Senate…Timmeah betta eat his Wheaties. Of course there is no such thing as a Democratic majority. Like getting kittens to march in a parade.
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Evan Bayh. As much as we want him to win to retain the majority, he will be a Democrat from a red state, and he was a frustrating Blue Dog the last time he was in the Senate.
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That is one good thing if Deborah Ross pulls out a squeaker in NC by beating Burr… she will NOT be a blue dogger. SHe is DEEP DEEP BLUE. As progressive as they come in NC
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Poor Trump… confused a honey badger with a kitty-cat.
Shorter Clinton: This pussy has teeth!
If accurate, then the Dems have two years to ram some progressive judges through, if they have the balls to change the rules to majority win.
They better.
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Hope so, especially after the Thom Tillis win. Still don’t know how that happened. But this Deborah Ross, she is formidable. Heard her and Burr debating on the radio and was surprised how well she held her own. Burr is the consummate scumbag who touches on every conservative Southern symbol and all its cultural icons - w/o almost no regard to the present day or the issues in discussion… He strings them together like Giuliani with his noun, verb, 9/11 BS.
But the real wrecking ball here in NC, aside from Art Poe, is Gov McCrory, Like Scott Walker, but a little sharper, Pat McCrory has done some serious damage to the people of NC.
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Yikes! Never thought of that. Dude, time to put the pedal to the metal and stand on the fucking pedal 'cause two short years later (if memory serves me) there are 25 ‘D’ Senate seats up for grabs and only 5 ‘R’ seats up for grabs.
I’m hoping to keep Trump under 200, but that might be a tall order. Either way, not a close race, but I like that the media reports it as close, that way Dems are encouraged to vote, especially in swing states.
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That’s no fucking wind—that’s a freezing cyclone, and Wednesday will be Donald’s “Day After Tomorrow” moment.
Go Hillary!
Go fuck yourself, Donald!
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Blue Dogs be cursed!
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Regardless of the outcome, I’m ready with my bumper sticker.
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Did I miss Indiana? Don’t see it in his analysis…
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Let’s be fair. This has been a really weird year for baseball, right? Politics is just one of Nate’s interests, and it wasn’t even his first – he built his system to analyze baseball. So, we can go to Nate for what’s up at the diamonds and Sam and Larry for what’s up at the voting booth. I’d be okay with that.
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