Discussion: Larry Sabato's Final Prediction: Clinton Wins, With A Tied Senate

And I predict that the sun will once again rise in the east.

And that Carnival Cruz begins his campaign for POTUS 2020 :pensive:

Could we pass a law mandating that in election years the Word Series would be expanded to enough games to run a few days past the election please?

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Tied Senate means Tim Kaine RULES!

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I think we can pull off a win in the senate race here in NC.

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“Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes,” the team at University of Virginia wrote.


Nate?

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Well, until Joe Manchin gets upset about something and decides he’d rather not have a D after his name.

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Below Obama’s 2012 count of 332 and his remarkable 2008 count of 365, but still, a very good showing (considering the entire MSM conspired against her.)
I think we will pick up one more Senate seat to give us 51, still, that puts waaaaaaay too much power in the hands of a few Blue Dogs (just like in 2008.)
Tough to pick up seats with such heavily gerrymandered house seats, and those elections have notoriously local flavors, with downright obscene advertising.

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Don’t know if the House was ever possible, but I’d like to know what the Comey effect was on the Senate.

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I think the NC Senate race will go Democratic too.

My prediction overall is Clinton by 7 or better. If you shut your eyes and your mouth, you can feel which way the winds are blowing and it’s 100% in Clinton’s direction. She’s going to win big. I know it in my soul.

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And for crying out loud let’s use the nuclear option and get the SCOTUS fully staffed as well as all Federal judicial posts that have been vacant for years.

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The discredited Bill Cosby (before the the discrediting began) did a spoof recording in a James Brown style (“Good God!”) and the lyrics (and maybe the title) included “I love myself better than I love myself”

Instead of shouting, “Maceo!!” during the recording, Cosby would yell:

“NATE!!”

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Hillary clearly realizes the Republicans are not her friends and will act accordingly. As much as I love PBO, she won’t bother with an olive branch knowing it’ll only get stomped on.

I’m looking forward to a strong, ass-kicking administration that knows its friends and, more importantly, its enemies.

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Here’s Hillz with tonight’s message

Awesome.

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Speaker is a House office. The VP is officially president of the Senate but only has a vote if there’s a tie. Personally I want to see what terms the media comes up with when they can’t use majority and minority leader.

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"Sabato’s Crystal Ball prognosticates that Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Republicans, meanwhile, are slated to hold their seats in North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. In Nevada where Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring, Sabato wrote that Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat, is most likely to win.

I disagree on NC and FL. I simply don’t see massive ticket splitting in those states. OH is DOA and although Jason Kander is an excellent Dem who should run repeatedly, I’m not sure he can pull it off against Blunt.

And what about Indiana? Sabato doesn’t mention it at all!!

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Do we even have Blue Dogs ala 2008? Who’s the Joe Lieberman of 2016? Haven’t nearly all of them fapped off to the green room beyond?

I think we will pick up one more Senate seat to give us 51, still, that puts waaaaaaay too much power in the hands of a few Blue Dogs (just like in 2008.)

Agreed, it’s not gonna be a 50/50 split. I do think that with the decimated Blue Dog division, there’s much more liberal theme going on vs the time of Lieberscum & Baucus.

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Aside from the Traitor Joe scenario, there’s another big problem with a 50-50 Senate split.

Although a Democratic VP could break ties, the GOP would cite the 107th Congress as precedent.

And demand a 50-50 split on all committees.

That would be a circumstance rife with Republican shenanigans…

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I think NC and MO both go to Democrats…and FL is closer than you might think looking at the turnout so far. I think the early vote has cannibalized election day republican voters. Also not sure about Indiana, although I am hardly a fan of Bayh

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