“This is going to be a devastating election for Republicans across the ballot,” said Republican strategist Terry Sullivan.
that’s downright sexy to me.
Ahhhh
the smell of gop defeat in the morning.
Happy Morning. lol
If door-to-door visits at my home here in Cortez, CO are any indication, the Democrats are hustling votes more than any time in the past. We are the farthest southwest town in CO, only 10K in town with ~16K in the entire county, all ranch, farm and energy / tourist industry. We grow mostly food here, no big industry, mostly private industry, and critical to human survival. Sounds like Trump country? But is also full of highly educated, creative, artistic, intelligent folks, lots of them. If our activity to get the votes here is any indication how active is the Democratic machine, I have only to look at my own town’s Democrats commitment to winning.
As a person that has a strong political opinion, it’s hard to imagine any ads say the say typical BS, changing my mind or vote.
Thanks for the report!
As someone who has followed the House races very closely, the House Dem candidates did not get bogged down by the Kavanaugh controversy. They continued to push their primary messages (protect health care, against the tax cut, anti-Trump, + a local issue). They have a lot more money than the GOP. The map keeps expanding. I even added the Alaska at large district to my list the other day (that’s an interesting race btw. We have a legit indie who also won the Dem nomination, so it has the same dynamic as what propelled the current Governor Walker to win 4 years ago with a unified Dem/Indie coalition).
My target list has now expanded to 112 seats. Based on intensity levels, funding, the political environment and candidate quality, I don’t think we’re going to lose many seats up to R+4. That alone would put us at a net +35-40 seat gain. On top of that, we have a number of great candidates in R+5 to R+8 districts and we are going to win our fair share of those. That would likely put us in the net +45-55 seat range. Then there are always some reach districts that tend to drop, so there may be an additional 4 or 5 that come our way that we don’t quite expect (I think Jessica Morse’s race in CA-04 is one of those, potentially).
I’m not making any specific predictions at this point. I just don’t think we should limit any possibilities at all. There’s no need to. The Republicans can’t chase down every single potential Dem opportunity and their messaging is proving less effective with time.
In these last 3 weeks, the Democratic money and organizational advantage is going to take a firm hold and a lot of races are going to shift in the Dems’ favor. This will also help the Dems in our key FL, AZ and NV Senate races, which will put us on the doorstep of victory if McCaskill and Heitkamp can win.
Thank you so much for posting this
The “devastation” can’t come quick enough. Rethugs be gone.
It’s interesting looking at the specific races the article mentions and comparing them to the 538 numbers. Yes, reps like Comstock in Virginia do look like they’re toast, with the Democratic challenger with a big lead. Yet there are several mentioned here in the article where 538 has them at a pure toss-up. I’ve been keeping a close eye on Bishop here in Michigan, who according to 538 is currently expected to lose by less than a single percentage point, yet this is the third article I’ve seen that says the GOP is giving up on the seat.
Races elsewhere will not affect the one in your backyard. The only way for you to have any affect is GO VOTE. If it is a win, make it a landslide win. If it is close, make it a win. If it is a loss make it close. If there is no chance, force them to know there are Democrats everywhere. Stay energized.
Win … win … win! But then be smart … and clever … and tough … real aggressively tough … because if the Senate is still in GOP hands … they win continue to pleasure Trump … and the Senate & Trump will spend every waking hour trying to F-up anything the house does and from the second the polls close they will attempt to delegitimize a Democratic house majority.
… and do not discount the potential for shenanigans in some close races.
Too bad, in a way. You always want your opponent to be as stupid as possible, and triage isn’t stupid.
Fortunately, their problem is systemic. It’s not a few bad apples; it’s a party-wide stench.
Listening to MSNBC this morning, looks like we’ll win the house and lose the senate might even lose the more seats in the senate.
The Republican strategist was blaming Beto for taking up money in a losing vanity race which will end up costing McCaskill and Heitcamp their seats.
ETA: Over the weekend MSNBC was saying that we’re not going to get a Blue Wave, Dems will win the house but only by 25 seats (need 23).
The GOP may have internal polling showing a grimmer picture, or they may be assuming for strategic purposes the same turnout model that Democrats are for strategic reasons refusing to assume–i.e., an unavoidable wave that bumps pretty much every Dem candidate by 2-5% across the board.
Also, they might be playing political favorites. If you assume you’re going to lose the majority anyway, you can start thinking about who you want to save and who you’d just as soon see lose. 210 seats is better than 209, but if the 210th seat would be filled by a weirdo who might do more damage in the long run (or even worse, someone who might vote with the Democrats once in a while), you’re not going to do much to help him.
Also also, some districts may simply get poor bang for the buck on ad money at this point, because of ad rates or media penetration or number of undecideds. The GOP is a lot of things, but they are not bad political operators (more’s the pity).
Long story short, they may actually win some of these “triaged” races, and they may very well be expecting to. Ultimately it’s all in service to making their spreadsheets spit out a higher probability of keeping 218 seats.
Yeah, the same old same old fear ads are decades old at this point. I can’t imagine anyone, even Foxbots, responding to them anymore.
Dem chances of taking the House has moved almost 3 points at 538 since Friday morning.
OK, so Democrats have spent $116 million, and the article says they outspent Republicans, but we have $66 million spending by Republicans, plus $44 million spending by the NRCC, plus $93 million from Adelson et al. That looks like the Democrats are being outspent $203 million to $116 million (or $159 million to $116 million, if the NRCC number is included in the Republican spending, which is unclear from the article). Looks like the GOP still is more than awash in cash.
This is why we need serious tax reform eliminating the depreciation and depletion deductions and a confiscatory estate tax.
I have a friend in S. Carolina that has lived there for several decades in the coastal low country. She’s saying that she’s optimistic about Dems taking Mark Sanford’s old seat with Joe Cunningham. (What a hottie! Sorry, but it’s true)
https://www.joecunninghamforcongress.com
And more gobsmacking, she thinks the Dem challenger for Governor, James E. Smith Jr., has a good chance too.
https://jamessmith.com
I’m trying to keep an eye on these in addition to everything else, especially since the Dem running for Gov has the same name as my late father. I don’t have any latest updates but perhaps you can shine some light on these two races?