Discussion for article #227761
Moronic off-color comment by GOP Senate candidate sparking national ridicule in 3-2-1âŚ
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The Real âElephant Nightmareâ is the picture accompanying the article! A particularly unflattering pic of McTurtle (and that is really saying something!) aside two zombie senators. Yikes!
As for the content, i like reading this challenge to the conventional wisdom that itâs the Republicansâ year. Always enjoy Mr. Kilgoreâs take on things.
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The one thing missing from this analysis is a straightforward look at the polls. The fact is that Sam Wang, using an approach that ignores all these sorts of considerations and simply averages the polls, gives the Democrats a 70% chance of retaining the Senate. Given that Wang called every race in 2012 correctly (unlike Nate, who missed two of them), his prediction should be taken seriously.
Now 70% is not a guarantee of victory; itâs a probability and thereâs only one event so the less likely outcome could occur (in fact, thereâs a 30% chance of that happening!). But it seems to me that the 2012 race showed pretty clearly the worthlessness of all the punditsâ âexpertâ speculations. If we want to idly speculate, fine. But if weâre actually interested in knowing what is likely to occur in the election we should look at what the polls are saying. And here it seems to me that the main question is which type of meta-analysis is correct. Wang, with a straight averaging of the polls, favors the Democrats. Silver, adding âfundamentalsâ to the mix, favors the Republicans, although the odds are steadily decreasing. We will see.
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All of the things described at the beginning of this piece (perceived mandate, center-right, etc.) are exactly why McConnellâs nightmare might be the very thing he wants.
As the fundamentals shift in key states, it is now considered far less likely that the GOP will capture many more seats than 6. If itâs a choice between 5 and 6, then McConnell may prefer 5.
Imagine the result of a 51-49 senate where the GOP just replaced 6 of the more moderate dems with 6 of the most conservative firebrands in the country. The tea-partification of the senate will be more complete than in the house.
McConnell will then have a much more right-wing no-compromise caucus than before, and there will be hulking shadow of several members running for President, including folks like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio, all of whom have put personal politics ahead of party on several occasions.
So, with this bare majority, McConnell will have to keep his herd of cats in line, with nary a vote to lose, during a Presidential election cycle. Heâll be expected to deliver on that âmandateâ to âcenter-right Americaâ and to put that âlawless-socialist-Kenyanâ in his place. The bills he brings to the floor will have to be partisan firebombs loaded with payback and tea party agenda items. Compromise with democrats will quickly be attacked by the winger crowd, which will make it difficult to get more than one or two votes from across the aisleâŚNo margin, big egos, ideological inflexibilityâŚAnd he wants this outcome?
And, of course, if all the rest of that werenât there, the shadow of Harry Reid, who loathes McConnell and has endured 6 years of rightwing excoriation and constant procedural attacks, will be lurking. His job will suddenly be simple. He needs to keep McConnell from sending right wing red-meat to Obamaâs desk, make sure that the GOP doesnât get to validated their claim that democrats have been responsible for gridlock, and demoralize the right wing base by denying them the results theyâre expecting. He has the tools to thwart McConnell, but he wonât have to wield them nearly as often. Most of the time he can sit back and watch the show, but when McConnell finally wiggles free of his various chains, heâll be there to lock them up again.
On the other hand, a 50-50 split with Biden having to trudge to the capital every day of the week to break a tie, McConnell can claim that the GOP âwinâ of 5 seats means âAmerica wants democrats to compromiseâ. Then HE can sit back and gum up the works while ginning up support in his right wing base to âput them fully in controlâ in 2016.
Be careful what you wish for.
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I understand that in some localities in the United States it is illegal to keep turtles as pets. Does anyone here have any information about Kentucky?
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AyyyyyuppppâŚ
And Thune looks like heâs about to say âRelease the houndsââŚ
I never get the âAmerica is a center-right nationâ meme. Itâs just Republican wishful thinking and verbal manipulation. Makes no sense. Repeat it enough and people will start to believe it.
The center is the center. The left is the left.
And the right is just wrong. Again.
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I keep coming back to likely voter models. How do you build one that doesnât under-represent Democrats? 2010 was historic because Democratic turnout was historically low, but Democrats turned out in 2012 despite being particularly unenthusiastic. They also turned out in 2006. So, if a likely voter model is based on 2010 turnout or if a pollster doesnât consider a voter to be a likely voter because they didnât vote in 2010, itâs highly likely the model is too Republican heavy. Iâm betting that several of the more prominent pollsters will have a whole lot of egg on their faces come Nov. 5th.
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I agree Plucky, especially here in KY.
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The Republicans are engaging in confident-sounding tough talk to try to generate a band-wagon effect and make Democratic turnout seem pointless.
This strategy is great when it works. When it doesnât (Hillary Clinton 2008), it comes back to bite you hard.
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Silverâs model gradually phases out âfundamentalsâ as Election Day gets closer. I think the basic premise of this is correct, but I think he phases them out too slowly.
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Grimes has this. McConnell canât put her away. He wonât even debat her, he keeps turning down request. Her last ad has been extremely successful
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Itâs the same bandwagon strategy theyâve been using for 40 years. The big lie, over and over again.
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I sure hope you are correct. But, I somehow doubt it.
I understand the logic behind the approach. But if, as the fundamentals are phased out, Silverâs analysis ends up shifting and indeed converging with what a âfundamentals-lessâ analysis has been saying all along, what is his current prediction actually telling us? If anything, it just seems like a measure of conventional wisdom, which appears to be largely worthless.
Republican pundits may try the âmandateâ argument, but after 2008 and 2012, not even a pliant beltway press is going to give it any credence, especially if the Republican victory consists of picking up half a dozen senate seats solely in states that Obama lost by double digits. Whatâs more likely is a reinforcement of the idea that the divisions between red state and blue state America are continuing to deepen, and that in the future there may only be a handful of states capable of electing senators from either party.
Cometboy is right in that if the Republicans fall just short ( especially if Orman ârobsâ them of their majority) McConnell will insist that it still means that the Democrats must work with the Republicans ( while actually making it difficult at every step), but there will also be a lot of handwringing in that if the Republicans failed to take the senate this time around, then it will seem a near impossibility in the immediate future, and the internal finger pointing will continue, especially as high profile members gear up for their 2016 nomination run. There is also a real possibility that McConnell may be ousted as leader if the Republicans stay in the minority. Heâs not any more loved amongst his colleagues than he is in general, and this could be the final example of his ineffectiveness. The Republicans most likely to gain short term from a Dem hold are the senators planning to run in 2016, as they will be free of any responsibility to actually show they can govern.
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I do not see the GOP taking the Senate. Based on what? Very soon, people are going to want to know about policy. And the GOP wants nothing to do with that.
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No, the 70% probability does not guarantee anything (I took Stat 101, also.), but it sure made my heart sing.
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Yes, mine too!