Close aināt no cigar, though. If he goes to Cleveland with fewer than 1237, itās still going to take multiple ballots, and you can bet some of those delegates are going to want something in return. Then the Dems have two openings - one, that even Repuritans donāt like Drumpf, and two, they had to bribe people for their support.
Go Cruz (IN)! Go Kasich (NM)! Go Drumpf (golf course)!
Some serious loser-talk goinā on.
And they waited this long-- to do this?!
jw1
So, the purpose of the presidential primary season is to prove that neither the American public, nor the specialized political commentators, know arithmetic.
I certainly hope that Chinchilla-Head doesnāt get the votes before the convention, but Iām not convinced.
This piece says nothing new, and in fact negates some points that have been made dealing with Trumpās weaknesses in California.
Moreover, there is a piece in HuffPo to-day which should blow the complacency of people with military experience.
A commander NEVER willingly places him/herself in a situation with no plan B.
If Trump gets the GOP Nomination and is projected to lose all 50 states, that does not negate the reality that we would be left with ONE plan (outvoting him) and nothing elseā¦because even emigration will not cut it. (it would if the U.S. were the size of Luxembourg).
- There are too many X factors in a General Election
- There are too many avenues for cheating (particularly with a Thug Candidate)
- There are too many stoopids, racists, inattentive, lazy people to write off Trump from victory. In Indiana
he is projected to win against Hillary by more than 8 points.
The HuffPo article features the Military and its mass terror with Trump. What does this have to do with the MSM (which is pro-Trump)?
It validates the premise that there is more than ONE elite structure in the U.S. In this case, there is an MSM elite and a Military elite which is at odds with the former.
Actually the key factor in deciding the convention is how hard Trump pushes the establishment.
If he starts acting more like a conventional candidate, moving towards the center, making nice with party establishment figures, making deals with them, etc., then even if he comes up a bit short in the delegate total, there will be nothing like a concerted effort to stop him, and he picks off enough uncommitted delegates, by making deals with them, to put him over the top.
But if Trump continues to threaten the existence of the party establishment, if he continues to throw away all their carefully cultivated dog whistles in order to be the anti-establishment truth-telling bomb-thrower, then he backs the establishment into a corner. Even if heās over 1,237 in pledged delegates, because of the indirect selection of most delegates, he will be well short of 1,237 delegates who actually want him to win. Party regulars who were selected to go to the convention pledged to vote for Trump on ballots #1, or out to #3 in some cases, are not pledged to vote his way on procedural votes. If the majority of delegates doesnāt want him to win, that majority can find a way, through these procedural votes, to deny him the nomination before that first ballot.
Most directly, they can decide seating challenges against Trump, pushing him below 1,237.
But there are all sorts of other ways that procedural votes could doom Trumpās chances. The quadrennial convention is to the party what a sitting constitutional convention would be to the US. It could change the most fundamental rules of the party with a simple majority vote. They could, for example, vote to go back to a historical standard, and decree that a candidate needs 2/3 of the delegates to win the nomination.
The anti-Trump majority of delegates probably couldnāt be organized into doing anything so drastic as changing to a 2/3 requirement, though that is not inconceivable if Trump is an existential threat to the party by the time of the convention. But seating challenges happen every convention. Even without any sort of organization, seating challenge votes will all go against Trump if the majority is even slightly inclined to not see him win.
There are not enough people who truly understand the threat Trump poses to the existence of the United States as we know it.
Iām pretty sure this reflects badly on me.
I know strategically the ideal thing is for Cruz to get the Nomination and Trump to go third party, split the vote et al.
But really, I want Trump to wrap it up ā¦ and then lose. Lose big time.
Iām tired of the TeaPartyPaleoConservative theory that really the problem is that they moderate themselves and compromise and if they just stuck to their guns they would win it all. I want to see their perfect, racist, big mouthed, anti-intellectual candidate go all the way ā¦ and get stomped.
Curb-Stomped. A Wave of blue from sea to shining sea.
I want to be able to say āNo. You people arenāt saying what everyone is thinking and just ādoesnāt have the guts forā. Itās just you āproud of your own ignoranceā bigots and thatās all it ever has been.ā.
I agree with you on wanting Trump to be the nominee so Hillary can put him in his place, and thatās not the White House.
But as far as the rank and file RWNJs realizing that they are the problem is well beyond their ken.
But yes, I so want to shove their bigotry, misogyny, racism, etc. in their faces and say, America will never embrace your views.
Ohio has some old anti-bribery laws on the books pertaining to delegates.
āNo person shall before, during or after any primary, convention or election give, lend, offer or procure or promise to give, lend, offer or procure any money, office, position, place of employment, influence or any other valuable consideration."
I wonder if and how that would factor in, if at all? Iād love to see TPM do some investigation on it.
You are seriously out of touch with the True Conservative community if you think Trump is their guy. They hate him and think he is left of Hillary.
For your scenario, Cruz is the guy you are looking for. Youāll still end up being disappointed when he gets run over by Hillary, though, because they will just find some small deviation from orthodoxy and spend 4-8 years yelling about how if only a TRUE Conservative had run, or alternately blame Trump for tarnishing the Holy Halo of Ted Cruz in the primaries.
They are delusional.
He will have the nom before Cleveland.
If one is either Cruz or Kasich, there is a slate of delegates to be grabbed today. However those contests are in Trumpās neck of the woods and Marylandās deal is the only one that Trump might not win.
Now if all goes well, Trump will continue his Cleveland trip with 1,017 delegates (Connecticut is a winner take most and thatās if the winner canāt get 50% of the vote. Sorry, if Iām wrong about the former. Rhode Islandās is proportional and Kasich might benefit from that, before Cruz does. Again, might)
Now skip Indiana and maybe Nebraskaās contests and Trump will likely win the WV contest. If he does, he will have 1,051 delegates leading to Cleveland.
Now lets skip Oregon and Washington for sake and well assumption and just proceed to June 7th.
Though Arnie is backing Kasich, who would you bank on winning California? Cali is winner take all and Cruz isnāt likely winning that state.
The next important state is NJ (51 delegates). Cruz will likely go 0 for today in the northeast. If Trump wins those two, any remaining contests are just ācherriesā.
I need a contested convention dammit.
I already bought my popcorn and have a barcalounger with 3, countā em 3! - cupholders on layaway.
What I think is going to happen in both races is that the leader will run the board of all the remaining contests once it is clear that they are the winner.
Sure, there is a core set of Bernie bros who will continue to vote for Bernie long after Clinton is certain to get a majority of pledged delegates. Idiots like Weaver really believe that they can win it on the superdelegates that back Clinton 20:1 and the Sanders camp decried as undemocratic for months.
But that core is only 20% of Sanders supporters at most and so as it becomes clear Clinton has won, Clintonās vote share will rise as party supporters want to eliminate the possibility of a brokered convention. The pressure on Bernie to fall in line for the good of the party will be very very severe.
The argument for the Republicans is similar. The difference being that the party is utterly disconnected from their base. That is why neither of their plausible nominees is from the āestablishment laneā. Trump knows that he doesnāt have any hope of winning if it gets to multiple ballots at the convention. The bulk of his delegates will defect to Cruz. But they will utterly destroy the Republican party in the process. Forget keeping the Senate, if they steal the nomination from Trump, the GOP can kiss the House bye-bye and will be hard pressed to keep state control in places like Texas.
However bad Trump would be for the electoral prospects of the party, Cruz isnāt much better and any situation where Cruz wins with stolen Trump delegates is worse.
So as Trump gets close to the number of seats he needs, expect support for Cruz to drop sharply and Trump to run the board. The rules are winner takes all. Trump really is in the command seat here.
Where I think armchair strategists have it wrong is that they see Trumpās inability to pick his own delegates as a weakness and his failure to fight for them a mistake. I disagree. I do not think that there is any way Trump can win over those delegates, none. The only thing that he can do is to raise the stakes for defection so high that they are afraid to do so.
Every one of those delegates knows that the Presidential election is already as good as lost. They are playing to keep control in the House and the state races and to position for 2020.
Laziest photoshop job ever. They couldnāt even take 30 seconds to trim away the white around Cruzās arm and top of his head? COME ON TPM!
Look out, Cleveland, the storm is cominā throughā¦!
I think I need to apologize to Chinchillas everywhere for gross and malicious slander. 
I would love to see a massive food fight at the conventionā¦ then have the Dems win big time. I actually think that would do more damage to the GOP.