Politicos worried about such orthodoxy are a minority, always. The vast majority are ‘gut’ voters.
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“referring to the primary earlier this month where Cruz defeated Trump in part because Kasich under-performed.”
WRONG.
Cruz won because the Koch Bros. ordered all the AM Hate-Radio DJs to attack Trump, and they did, very effectively.
With the Koch Bros sock-puppet Gov. Snotty Walker boosting Cruz every chance he got (in return for a promised V.P. nod) and all the Wisconsin Reich-Wing Media piling on, the easily-swayed “Christian Conservative” voters came out in droves to vote for Cruz.
This can only happen in Koch-controlled states, like Kansas and Oklahoma, not in Indiana which is much, much more diverse and bigger than Wisconsin, despite the Republican dominance of the State Politics.
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Bravo for paying attention to the important mechanics of the convention. But I don’t agree that making nice with the Party Establishment is going to be enough to get Trump the nomination. No one should underestimate Ted Cruz’s desire for the Republican nomination. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Ted. In any other year he wouldn’t have a chance. So, he will do whatever it takes to win in Cleveland.
Faithless Delegates? Got 'em.
Packing the Rules Committee? In Progress.
Delegate Challenges? Ready to Go.
Swapping out the Convention Chair? Cued up.
Ted’s whole strategy is based on getting to a second vote. He’s going to get that vote by any means necessary. I can’t wait for the aftermath.
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You mean Cruzichstein ain’t the magic bullet?
Wait 'til somebody tells Trump about the Electoral College…
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“Chinchilla-Head”
POINTS AWARDED!!!
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Yes, but that is equally true about Kasich or Cruz.
Thomas Massie is about is as conservative Tea Party as they come. In an interview with Matt Welch at Reason.com, he said:
Massie: Well, if it’s between Donald Trump and Hillary
Clinton, I will most certainly vote for Donald Trump, I can tell you
that. Or Bernie Sanders, or literally anybody on the Democrat side. So
there you have it.
I don’t think you know whereof you comment.
The unknown threat of Trump versus the known threats of Cruz or Kasich: “Laugh about it, shout about, when you’ve got to choose, anyway you look at it you lose . . .”
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Our next FLOTUS…
Trump WILL win the nomination on the first ballot.
His only competition is Ted Cruz, and so many people detest Cruz that he cannot win the nomination. That makes him a firewall for Trump, because Cruz is occupying solidly the only political position that could threaten Trump’s nomination. It won’t take many uncommitted or untrustworthy delegates who decide that to defeat Trump for the nomination is to destroy the GOP.
Kasich is a political nothing-burger, of interest only to reporters trying to generate a controversy.
After Trump wins, this will be a new “Goldwater” election unless the Democrats screw it up. (Are you listening, DWS?) In 1964 LBJ won big and brought in 75% of both the House and the Senate. Unfortunately, he caved to threats from the conservative Republicans to block Civil Rights and the Voting Act legislation unless he bought into Westmoreland’s fantasy of winning a battle of attrition against the Viet Cong in Vietnam. It didn’t help that in 1968 Nixon convinced the North Vietnamese not to negotiate a Peace with LBJ because Nixon would give them a better deal. Nixon, as was so often true, lied to the NVA, also.
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Heaven forfend.
If Trump’s below 1237, Cruz may try to take the nomination from him on the second ballot. He could end up with a mathematical path to do this because Cruz has been manipulating the process so that a fair number of “Trump delegates” actually are Cruz supporters only bound to Trump on the first ballot.
It would be an incredibly cynical tactic (one that Trump has rightly been complaining about), but Cruz is the most cynical fuck in American politics since Newt Gingrich. Still, Cruz’ legitimate delegates and faux Trump delegates combined probably won’t total 1237.
The question then becomes whom the Kasich, Rubio and unbound delegates would side with. They’d have to consider the divisiveness in denying Trump the nomination if he came to the convention with more than 1150 delegates, or by relying on a bunch of nominal Trump ballots switching on the second ballot, or both. No wonder they’re relieved that the Secret Service isn’t allowing guns on the Convention floor.
NY made it clear that Trump isn’t collapsing. We’ll have a better idea after tonight of where things might end up, but it’s pretty darned likely at this point that he’ll be above 1150.
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I agree. I want Trump to win the nomination and win it cleanly because Trump IS the Republican party. His mannerisms and approach to people who are different than him is exactly the GOP. I want everyone in the US, especially the media establishment, to acknowledge this basic fact that the GOP establishment is racist, misogynist, bigoted, arrogant, incurious and toxic to just about everything this country stands for. They (media) will need to be dragged to that fact kicking and screaming and the best way to do it is to compare the “adult” political party of the Democrats against that of Trump and the GOP.
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I agree with everything except wanting him to win it “cleanly.” No, no, NO! We want him to win it ugly, contestedly, noisily, divisively – which also seems right on brand with the GOP.
Did anyone else notice that in the NYT article on tourists visiting Trump Tower an English mother and daughter who mentioned that in their part of the UK, to “trump” means to pass gas. Another from Nottingham confirmed the same. How appropriate…
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That is not a view that is shared across the board.
Correction: Trump may accumulate the requisite number of delegates prior to the convention but his nomination by the GOP may not be a foregone conclusion.
For the purposes of discussion, what if:
- GOP nominates either Trump or Cruz
- And loses horrifically in November
In each case, a powerful and recalcitrant contingent of the right will have finally gotten their dream candidate and subsequently been forced to see that their worldview has been categorically rejected by the electorate.
Questions:
- Does the progressive movement benefit more from this happening to movement conservatives (Cruz) or stupid angry old white conservatives (Trump)?
- Or … does the progressive movement benefit from either of these groups getting the big wakeup call? Are we better off with them in a state of denial as they currently are?