If I’m not mistaken, very few people think Thompson is going to win. Cook rates it as R+14. What I think people are waiting to see is just what the spread is in his loss.
Because…
Normally, we could expect the Dem to get blown out by the GOP. But, at this point, Thompson most likely will narrow his loss substantially. If his loss is in the single digits, expect the GOP to go to DEFCON 5.
Trump is still hugely popular among Republicans. Well over 80%.
He very well may not but for the party to make decisions based on that kind of thinking, when a candidate is doing suprisingly well, is something pretty close to suicide.
And let’s not forget, nobody thought Trump would win either.
Thompson’s showing is better than would normally be for a Dem in this area. But that’s it. It’s better it’s not outstanding. Given the political makeup of the area, it’s not going to be enough to pull him over the finish line. BUT, having said that, his performance today can be the beginning of creating real political infrastructure in the KS Dem Party so it’s not completely for naught. This election can and will help the Dems in '18.
I’m afraid that what the polls show in this race is that Jon Ossoff’s favorability rating of 43% is also his ceiling. Unless he gets 50% of the vote, he’ll be a dead duck against the stronger GOP opponent in the run off.
Northern Atlanta suburbs, I think.
ETA: yup
You don’t have to win for your results to be outstanding and, considering where he’s running, it wouldn’t be inappropriate to say he has done outstandingly well.
Certainly well enough for the party to throw 20,000 dollars at him, which they refused to do.
The fact that it’s competitive in the slightest shows problems with the Rep party as when they’re in charge it’s bad even for them. When they can’t play underdog people turn on them.
It’s interesting, as a college-educated suburb. Ossoff is said to have a good ground game running. Early voting favors him so far…https://twitter.com/ElectProject
Not so fast on those prognostications there. Yes, Kansas is a solid red state, but it does have a long history of electing Democratic governors, and at least one urban-area member of the US House. Add to that the recent close call by Sen. Roberts, and the complete disaster of Brownback that the current republican legislature is fighting back relentlessly this session, and Thompson does have a legitimate chance. Kansas does have a populist history, but that history has usually been led by a very heavy dose of pragmatism. Kansans do not have a history of consistently shooting themselves in the foot. I feel very comfortable in stating that the tide in Kansas has turned, and the Tea Party is on its way OUT! Amen to that!
EV sites were open on Monday in DeKalb County for the first time (which is a part of that district). HRC won that county 79-16. In other words, Ossoff has opened up an early lead in the EV in parts of the district that are not the strongest for a Dem. It means he has more room to grow and keep his margin going. He has a shot to win outright I round 1, but I think he could win the run-off too.
Personally I no longer trust anyone who predicts how a race will end. Clinton won. They said.
So did Gore.
It would be nice if he won. That’s all I’ll say. I won’t get my hopes up for it, however.
With those 3-4 million illegal voters in place, Ossoff is sure to win easily.
I really like the term “jungle primary”. We started doing that this year in California, but we just called them “open primaries”. Jungle sounds so much more exciting!
The ad run by CLF is headed by Norm Coleman who just happens to be head lobbyist for the Saudis. Hypocrite much?
Kansans elected then RE elected Brownback. Rump won Kansas by 27 points in the area. Yes, the KS Leg. voted for Medicaid expansion but they didn’t quite have the votes to overturn the veto. So, the tide is turning albeit slowly.
You can’t expect things to change on a dime. Rump is only on his first 100 days (even though it really feels like years). Give things some time. By '18, KS Dems should be in a better position.
FFS, this is Kansas. I seriously doubt the KS Dem Party really has that kind of money to spend for a damn mailing for a blood Red district. And before you go off on the DNC, they’re clearly funneling money where they think it’s really best served.
Because the DNC has its head up its…
These are special elections and the DNC should have been enolved. There are few and infrequent.
But no it is a red district. Fucking loosers.