Seriously, TPM? Are you really going to push the results of ONE poll as signs of doom? I mean, really? Is this going to become a trend?
That’s so very disingenuous, cheap, and weak of you. Folks who follow politics know that outlier polls are one-a-dozen, and it’s the aggregation of polls, and the trends those aggregators show, that matter.
To even pretend one individual poll truly matters without taking others into consideration is, well, stupid. You’re better than this.
Here, I’ll make it easy for folks to find actual credible and useful data on current polls/trends:
Poll Aggregator #1: Clinton +4.5
Poll Aggregator #2: Clinton +5.5
Poll Aggregator #3: Clinton +4.7
Oh, and to top it all off, Survey Monkey has a rating of C- in Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight. That’s a LOWER rating than Rasmussen has, which I’ll note, currently is pumping out almost daily polls with Trump ahead by 2 points (likely to skew the aggregators). That’s pretty pathetic.
Of course the poll shows a decline after the disastrous FBI report. The good news is that it’s not much of a decline and we are still four months out.
Polls are like politicians - they lie .
That also means House Republicans have every incentive to keep it alive till elections.
And was it after the Dallas Police shootings?
[… in the NBC News/Survey Monkey weekly tracking poll ]
Well…that’s as far as I made it!
TPM’s own polltracker is consistent with this Survey Monkey poll. While the single greatest danger to the country is a Trump election, the single greatest danger to the campaign against him is underestimating him. This election is close, and Trump could win. The email fiasco was a selfinflicted wound, which I am afraid will have real election consequences. So, while I like Hillary Clinton a lot and regularly contribute to her campaign. (I hope you do, too.), I think Hillary is going to have to do things differently to rebuild “respect” for her strengths, which would hopefully lead to rebuilding trust. I have two related ideas, but I would be interested in yours, as well. Hillary is OK (getting better) in giving speeches, but she is great at Q & A, so why not do more very real Q & A. Here are two ways to do it. Number 1: Wherever she goes to give a speech, she ought to also hold a “citizens press conference,” with a diverse audience of local citizens, where they can ask her whatever they want-- not canned stuff, but real issues of importance to them, including email questions. Number 2, while in a community, Hillary ought to start making surprise phone calls to local right wing radio jocks and say, “Ask me anything”. I think these two initiatives would get a lot of positive coverage, locally and nationally, and let her repeat her arguments everywhere. I think she’d get points for being tough and politically courageous.
And we’ve got the conventions, debates, and the campaign ad blitzes. The GOP convention is going to be a circus, Clinton wins the debates if Trump has the guts to even show, and Clinton’s got far more advertising cash on-hand. Plus several months of Trump continuing to shove both his feet in his mouth at any available opportunity. Anything can happen and Trump could win but I’m not too worried yet.
Excerpt from Josh writing on Requiem for Bernie Sanders…to-day
[I know some sophisticates find this call laughable, but I think many young voters understood what Sanders was saying: that the only way to overcome the oligarchic, plutocratic tilt of our political system is by the massive, determined participation in politics of those determined to change it. Sanders’ campaign may, of course, become a footnote in political histories, a curiosity in a trivia question like Fred Harris’s 1972 campaign, but I have a feeling it will survive his defeat. At least I hope it will.]
I concur with your post, its spirit and your suggestions. I am also including something excerpted from Josh’s Requiem on Bernie to-day.
This–as well as your post–speak to what we need…and THAT is we need enthusiasm to GOTV as though our lives depended on it.
In Josh’s excerpt, he speaks of elements of Bernie’s message which may well have positive effects and elements I was well aware of, even while I and others here were scolding him. Those elements, particularly the idea of a VISION, are extremely important in galvanizing enthusiasm. particularly among our constituencies.
I disagree. If the last 30 years have shown anything, it’s that anything and everything Hillary does will be turned into a disingenuous act or a flat out “lie” by those who don’t like her. Full stop.
She just needs to keep doing her own thing. She and her team are smart enough to know what they’re doing. Smarter and more knowledgeable about this stuff than us, anyway.
As for polls, I did see the aggregate TPM poll, but it’s kind of off that it’s so dissimilar from the other 3. Not sure what to think about that one.
And lastly, yes, overconfidence is not a good thing, but neither is overreacting. IMO, both tend to turn folk off.
Survey Monkey and Morning Consult are crap polls, no better than Rasmussen. They are skewing the polling averages much like Gravis and co did in 2012 (Gravis is also polling in this cycle). Take those 4 polls out of the mix and you have a pretty significant HRC lead. I expect Morning Consult (which was always pro-Bernie) will shift in HRC’s favor following today’s endorsement.
As my grandmother would say, “From khyber’s mouth to God’s ears.” I hope you are right.
Well, I think you underedtimate Hillary’s abilities and strengths. But I respect your judgment.
I forgot to ask, Are you contributing to Hillary’s campaign? Hope so.
Slight correction to your post emiliano…It was written by John Judis, not Marshall.
How strange. Why don’t we see more of Nate Silver’s projections? He has Trump going down in flames with just over 20% of the vote.
I missed the part in the article where TPM pushed this poll as doom. You’re just a tad hysterical.
I’m old enough to remember when presidents were elected using the electoral college on a state by state basis. This new fangled popular vote system will take some getting used to.
Wait, what? They still use electoral college? Then what’s the significance of national polls? A better use of polling is giving an estimated EV total based on polling averages of each state.
One could hardly describe it as “disastrous.” That’s why Comey felt the need to editorialize, which he basically walked back the following day.