Discussion for article #245345
I just read a Tweet from another article two hours ago about a recent poll that put Hillary and Bernie even. So I’m skeptical.
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Automatic phone calls (recorded message) no mention of cell phones seems sample would skew older…and only 300 participants.
I’d put more stock in Selzer or Q pac.
Emerson College Polling Society? What? Who could possibly question that data?
Methinks that TPM staffers are itching to work their readers into a frenzy today.
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I like Bernie more, but I hope HRC takes it with a land slide. Fingers crossed.
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…and Clinton’s down by 3 in the new Quinnipac poll, which has a much bigger sample size, and a better reliability record.
This one’s going to be a squeaker. Dang.
Ditto. I love Sanders but I think Trump would would really get under his skin, and Sanders would have a big chance of losing in the general. The party needs Clinton in the general. But IA’s going to be really close. I’m guessing ±2 points.
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Today, tomorrow, and the day after that and the day after that ad infinitum.
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Tea leaves:
Hillary supporters who are diehards = about 80 some %.
Bernie diehards are about 70 some %.
But the majority of Bernie’s diehards make the assumption that Hillary is going to win the nomination- about 65%.
When it’s time to pull the lever tonight…
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Polling in Iowa and New Hampshire can be somewhat meaningless. This is hand to hand politics at its finest. Whoever has the ground game, wins.
It ain’t no lever, it’s a caucus.
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How do they make their selection? Voice? Cigar Box?
polling of Iowa Democrats has shown little consensus, as some recent polls suggest Sanders is leading in the Hawkeye State while others project a neck-and-neck contest.
Actually, six of the last seven polls aggregated at pollster.com show Hillary ahead, and FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-plus” forecast an house ago projected her winning by 3.2 percent.
I think the only Iowa poll that matters at this point is the one that comes out tonight.
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Having spent time yesterday trying to explain the caucus process to some new Democrats supporting Bernie, a Clinton victory in Iowa wouldn’t surprise me. Iowa is all about organization and getting your most excited supporters out to their local meeting. Gray hairs have a serious advantage in a caucus situation. I have no doubt Hillary learned her lesson about the Iowa caucus system 8 years ago.
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I am a progressive and I like Bernie’s ideas. He’s already said he’s raising taxes on everyone. Republicans will beat him over the head with that. And the socialist label. They will hang with with that. Bernie is just not electable.
Why would you choose to report on this poll while ignoring the Quinnipiac poll that also came out today? The Quinnipiac poll has Sanders up by 2 points, and their sample is much larger. Quinnipiac also included cell phones in their sample while Emerson did not. Emerson says they used a screening question to determine who the likely voters are, but they did not say what the questions was. It does matter, because it asked about previous caucus voting, that would likely produce a bad sample since it would appear that there will be a disproportionately large number of first time caucus voters this year.
This article was written by an intern. Does this intern know anything about polling? I suspect he doesn’t.
I think all these polls are designed to come out different than the last one just to get folks to click on them and sell advertising.
The things to pay attention with these polls right now isn’t whether Clinton or Sanders is ahead, but what has changed since the last time a particular outfit conducted their last poll of Iowa. Look for changes in momentum rather than whether one poll has Sanders or Clinton up to get a sense of where the race is at.
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