Now watch O’Malley take it in a squeaker.
I forgot, to win elections you have to lie to your constituents. Thanks for reminding me.
They vote with their feet. Literally, they walk to a part of the room, to show who they support. If any candidate gets less than 15% of the crowd in the room (cough, O’Malley, cough), those people must move elsewhere, perhaps persuaded by supporters of the others.
Plus, these raw numbers of supporters is not important; just what fraction of a delegate for that geographic area it represents. (So, lots of student support in the college towns does not mean more delegates, nor a bigger “win”.)
And that’s just for the Democrats. The GOP procedure is slightly different.
Who said you have to lie?
I would go with that Twitter feed…that’s what the polls are saying in general.
However, she does show a slight, within the margin of error, lead in most…but more importantly, she has some built in advantages that Sanders doesn’t.
Roughly 1/3 of Bernie’s support comes from just 3 out of the 99 counties in Iowa. That alone should be cause for alarm for Sanders’ supporters. You can’t win the state with just 3 counties.
Secondly, she is in a much better situation to work deals on a prescient caucus level with O’Malley supporters, than Sanders is. Because of the fact that Bernie’s support is limited geographically and because she has a built in super delegate advantage in her back pocket.
Thirdly, Bernie is relying on young people, and people that don’t have a history of caucusing, much more heavily. A lot of hope and praying goes with that strategy.
Fourth, Bernie needs to win…by a lot. A close victory isn’t going to do much for him in the delegate race. And a loss, even a close loss, is the tap tap tap of that nail being driven into the campaign coffin. This gives Hillary’s campaign a great deal more leverage on tactics tonight.
Not necessarily. If O’Malley doesn’t have the numbers to hit the 15% threshold…one of the other campaigns can move some of their people into his camp to give him the necessary 15%. This is actually a long time strategy, done to prevent the other guy from getting delegates.
It could be better, for example, for Hillary to have O’Malley people get the minimal delegates in one county, in order to decrease Sanders delegate count there.
Lots of interesting things can and probably will happen tonight.
I get where you’re coming from. However Clinton has her own problems. Sanders has much higher favorability ratings than Clinton and Trump, and polls show in head to head match ups he does better than Hillary but a lot can change between now and Election Day.
Wish Biden was running.
If all that reasoning holds, the progressive D will die…it is undeniable that the promise of Sanders is - redux Ralph Nader. The socialist/communist banner is about to be hoisted high by RNC, as the MSM wank to daily polling nonsense through November. We’ll all be doomed.
I think polling should be stopped 72 hours before an election. that will stop the useless commotion that now is the norm. Polls have become a curse on the system because there is one every 30 minutes, Who profits from this dumb exercise?
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Quinnipiac doesn’t actually have a great track record…
Clinton can handle her “problems” well.
Nate Silver says they do. And they got it within their MOE.
And I sure was right when I said it would be a squeaker, was I not?
Sanders polls well against Republicans because people don’t know him. Sanders being an unknown he can easily be defined negatively by Republicans.