A rational result. Their poll earlier in the month was at the height of the post-convention bounce. But when she is approaching 50 and he is stuck around 40, that gives you an indication of very stable race.
Anyone who hasn’t decided how they are going to vote in this election hasn’t been paying attention…
I agree, these number are gonna stick…
I think this is exactly where the race is right now, between 7-8 points, which will translate to a landslide in the Electoral College because Johnson will throw a few random states to Clinton. Weighted Party ID is only D+4 and it has a 71% white electorate. The early August poll was a pure bounce. This is realistic and steady.
Wait for debates and watch numbers soar.
Item inside the Monmouth numbers…Swing States earlier in the month were 42-34…now 52-29…Clinton
Closing of the gap in overall numbers was rise of Johnson in leaning states and Trump doing better in blue states (26% to 31%)
This feels nearer to where the race will end up on election day. I think Hillary just barely gets over 50% in the popular vote while Trump will get a lot of those R’s who say they will vote Libertarian back and get to 45%.
Pretty chilling that no matter who the GOP runs, they have a floor of at least 41-43%. Run a chainsaw with an elephant sticker: 43%. Run a demogorgon: 47%. Skinhead Hitler in a KKK robe snacking on freshly sheared baby otter foreskins… well, we might lose that race.
It’s not just Trump losing supporters to Johnson. Clinton is too. I know of not one person who is voting Stein over Clinton, but I do know several former rabid Sanders supporters who are now supporting Johnson. I have no doubt that some of those people will settle down and back Clinton in the end.
Johnson will throw a few random states to Clinton?
Which ones since you seem so sure?
I hear ya, Plucky. I can see the allure of the Libertarians on social stuff. But the moment they start in on the economic and small (no) government stuff I shake my damn head. KooKoo.
I have to think that a healthy percentage of Dems in protest will come back, or be inconsequential. I mean, If you live in my old hometown of Seattle and want to protest vote then go for it. Protest vote the fuck out of your mail in ballot. But if you live in Ohio and are thinking about protest voting then you are not taking your citizenship seriously enough.
Or see the folks on this board who have repeatedly thanked the third party candidate for making LePage Maine’s governor.
As expected the polls are tightening up a little, but not enough to cause panic. I read last week that some at Team Hillary were toying with the notion of running out the clock, but with 2 months to go, the clock isn’t about to run out. She needs to keep the pressure on. My only real concern is Clinton’s apparent idea of cleaving off Trump from the Republican establishment. She needs to remain focused on getting down ballot help. She needs to firmly hang Trump around the necks of a lot of Republicans.
I agree that it’s too soon to think they can let the clock run out. But I’m not sure she’s wrong to treat Trump as a thing apart from “normal” Republicans – even as he’s clearly simply the latest grotesque manifestation of what the GOP’s been sowing for decades. Paul Krugman had a Twitter thread on this a few days ago that reflects what I’ve been thinking:
And beyond that, having defined him as so beyond the pale, she’s still put Republicans in the position of having to defend their party’s (or their own) support of him. Dems around the country are having a field day doing just that. I suspect that in the end, for most people the impression will be the same as if she’d tied him to the party from the beginning, without having made ordinary self-identified Republicans dig in their heels about their affiliation.
@spocksblackpants: I’d still ask folks in solid blue or red states to vote for her; let’s give her a margin that takes away the justification the media will find most plausible for the GOP’s obstruction of her every breath.
@pluckyinky: oh, man, yeah; I know a few Bernie-to-Garyites too. Show them the Libertarians’ economic platform (which Johnson’s running on without equivocation, to his personal credit); it’s definitely giving mine second thoughts.
If they pay attention, I think we will see them vote for her. Gov Johnson has been on the news out of Albuquerque a lot lately and I’ve seen him interviewed about 6 times now in the last 6 weeks or so. He really comes off as nice but besides marijuana, which is all he talks about, since that’s all anyone talks to him about, there is nothing there. Nothing.
Plus I’m a pothead and I don’t want a stoned president any more than I want a drunk president and Johnson is very coy about his continued use, after promising he’d quit. He’s just not a candidate for the presidency. I read a piece about him in the New Yorker and he headed up a pretty crazy marijuana concern and offered to get something for the New Yorker reporter that isn’t legal.
But people will have to pay a little attention to get the picture.
Well, can’t she do both? The national message is that she cooperates, while in key races she makes Trump the albatross. Seems doable to me.
If Trump makes an appearance. Else it will be Spin City.
I understand your thinking, but I really, really want people to realize that the Republican party created Trump. They need to own the bastard.
Hell, even I didn’t believe that 13 margin.
Furthermore, this has adjusted now t “likely” which is always good for the GOP in polling but doesn’t really translate in the election. The “likely voter” model is a canard. (Google it)
She’s around 50 and he’s around 40. This ain’t gonna change. All we have to do is vote in legion and we can strike a mortal blow to conservatism.
That’s what I point to as well. I try to explain what a flat tax actually means for them and how they’re voting to raise their taxes substantially and, worse yet, end the social safety net.
Totally OT, but I saw a funny comment on a Politico article on Trump’s doctor’s note.
“Trump’s anus mouth may be result of mini stroke.”
Now there’s a competent medical opinion!