Its all about getting 270 electoral votes. Trump has no path while losing all of those states.
Were did the extra 3% go? Clinton 42%, Trump 40&, Johnson 11%, Stine 4%. Total 97%. That extra 3% could make a huge difference.
Also notable is the overall stability of the race in those key states. Yes, we’ve gone through some periods of polling volatility, the margin between them widens and shrinks, and currently we are probably in a phase of tightening for the last few weeks (which was expected). But, never once was Hillary behind.
We have the votes needed… so, what we need to do is to get them all out to the polls.
Gotta have our daily dose of “horserace hysteria”…yawn.
Mostly off-topic, but Calvin Trillin over at the New Yorker has a great “conspiracy” article about Trump’s corset .
Because, well,
[quote]People are asking—I shouldn’t be saying this, but a tremendous number of people are asking—why does Donald Trump always have on that floppy suit jacket? Why doesn’t he button it? Can he button it?..
What’s he hiding? And have you noticed that his neckties—wide neckties, really huge neckties, huge—come clear down to his belt buckle? How does that happen with a man who is six feet three? That’s all I’m asking. Is he malformed? Does he have a short upper body to go with the short fingers? Does he buy extra-long ties?
[/quote]
If you need a little laugh, this is the best.
State polls lag national ones, so if the race is getting tighter overall, we should see the same happening on the state level in the near future. And I can’t imagine this weekend won her any votes at this point.
Wait, what am I missing? The article sez:
TPM’s PollTracker Average reflects a similar narrowing in national voter surveys, with Clinton taking 45.7 percent of the vote compared to 42.2 percent for Trump.
But a week ago (9/4) it was a 2% margin. Soooooo, Sec. Clinton’s lead went from 2% to 5% and that’s a “narrowing”??
Since we don’t elect our presidents nationally—we do it state by state—this is just more hysterical hogwash.
You can unskew all you want, but it simply takes longer to get state polls done than national polls, and almost always they follow the national pattern within a few days or a week.
Actually, they don’t uniformly do any such thing.
You have to wait until about mid-October before the panic really starts to set in, and the demonic threat of a white nationalist authoritarian and his hordes of bigots and neo-Nazis rattles even (some) third party folks.
NY Times has Clinton v Trump at 80 - 20
Nate Siver has Clinton 60 - 30
Both have presumably good models. So go figure.
I hope that’s true for this year, but it seems too many Bros will never forgive her for beating their candidate, so they’re going to destroy the planet to prove Bernie was right all along. It’s a special kind of stupid.
Congratulations media hacks, you have the horserace you wanted.
YOU built this. When the lead story on every cable outlet and on every major news website is NOT that Trump has turned both his campaign and his “charity” foundation into demonstrable money laundering operations, and that he continues to build a white nationalist following of support and continues to use racial slurs and insults like dispensing Pez, but that the Dem candidate has fucking pneumonia and somehow she’s a shady ass liar for it, YOU BUILT THIS.
I can’t even tell you how disgusted I am at the media this year. This feels like Iraq war cheerleading all over again.
+100000000.
My dictionary doesn’t have enough words to describe how I feel. The way they report, and the way they defend their report – makes me wanna vomit.
Shorter media:
Trump: Mexicans are rapists, Warren is Pocahontas, McCain is a loser, Muslims need to be deported, I would shoot Iran in the face
Media: Sure, okay…zzzzz
Clinton: I have 38 separate policy positions on my website, I condemn the racist language of the GOP candidate…oh, and I’ve been under the weather and taking antibiotics for walking pneumonia.
Media: LIAR! OMG YOU SHADY LIAR! WE NEED TO LAUNCH AN INVESTIGATION INTO EVERYTHING!!! SHE NEEDS TO BE REPLACED!!
Seriously. I can’t believe how much of the media is showing its ass this election. I thought the Obama years were heinous…this is starting to make 2008 - 2015 look like Edward R. Murrow.
The front page of the New York Times web app last night was 5 DIFFERENT STORIES about how awful Clinton was. 5. Politico which was already borderline trash has gone full blown Breitbart. Salon isn’t far behind. The Washington Post vacillates between stupidity (today) and brilliance (David Fahrentold, the ONLY journalist doing actual journalism about Trump right now), it’s like watching a bipolar patient who has not taken their medication.
This is a great read on just exactly how normalized the media not bothering to be anything other than stenographers and armchair pundits has gone.
How Breitbart Conquered the Media
Now, take that particular headline and remember…the CEO of Breitbart is running the gotdamn Trump campaign.
In 2007 I said HRC was probably too polarizing to be a good presidential candidate against someone like Barack Obama. Boy howdy if I had only known how prescient that statement was. And just exactly how toxic and poisoned the media would become in the intervening years.
Now, with the way the media is behaving on all fronts? Not only do I want her to win, but I want her to NEVER hold another press conference ever again. Fucking whiny privileged little pissants. The entire beltway media needs a serious punch in the throat.
From the article posted above, this paragraph just really drives it home for me, the breathtaking level of journalistic malfeasance this election cycle:
One poll does not an election make. As always, I highly recommend this site: electoral-vote. Taking nothing away from the fine job our host does here…
I have two kids in university. Both were Bernie supporters, both were disappointed. They certainly get it, though, and they will dutifully vote for Hillary. The pejorative “Bro” is the last thing we need to be calling these people. It makes us elders come off as condescending.
If you look at politics 538 or Wang’s site you will see the race is essentially flat. If the deplorables comment was going to hurt Hillary it would have. Hillary is in great shape.