Discussion for article #245296
According to this poll even if all of O’Malley’s supporters moved to Bernie, Hillary will still win Iowa.
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Yeah. The undecideds generally break in the same percentages as the decideds.
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I would assume that if HRC wins in IA that the equation will change somewhat in NH as well.
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One is in a nose dive; one is not.
https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/mehta-mccann-demdebate-iowa-polling.png
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Reallocating O’Malley’s folks on those percentages yields about a 50-44 result with about 5 undecided.
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By sometime in 2016, Sen. Sanders looks like he’ll be somewhere about 100% support in Iowa on that “trend.” Impressive.
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Is this from an example of how to mislead with graphs? Note the bottom scale; it starts in 2013. Sanders didn’t even announce until June 2015 and the polls have been almost static since early October, which is where it ends.
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Maybe a little, I think the pattern is that when a “neighboring son” is running, NH tends to vote for that candidate.
When’s the DMR coming out???
I have yet to run into an O’Malley supporter ANYWHERE. My sister lives in Maryland and she doesn’t know any, either.
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O’Malley supporters, when asked about their second choice, preferred Sanders to Clinton by a 30-point margin, 57 percent to 27 percent.
Someone here was asking about this yesterday, I forget who.
I recalled some numbers from a month ago, but they were national, not Iowa numbers.
If these are Iowa numbers, they could be good news for Bernie if it ends up being very close. It would have to be a lot closer than this poll shows, however. Of course the polls are kind of all over the map, so who knows.
Also, subgroups in these kinds of polls tend to have a much larger margin of error than the topline results, because the number of people in the subgroups (Hillary supporters, Bernie supporters, O’Malley supporters) is smaller than the overall sample (all “likely” Dem voters). In the case of O’Malley supporters, much, much smaller. So I wouldn’t get too excited about it either way.
So, it could be a factor, but it’s hard to know whether it will make a difference or not.
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The other missing piece here is that delegates are awarded proportionally then you add in the “super delegates”… which makes Hillary’s delegate count surpass Bernie’s easily even with a narrow win in Iowa & a loss in NH.
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In 04, MA’s neighboring son beat VT’s neighboring son, IIRC.
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Not sure what Dexys Midnight Runners has to do with polls but I’m willing to go with it.
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Come on Eileen
Oh, I swear what he means (what he means)
At this moment you mean everything…
I wondered the exact same thing.
Saturday at 5:30pm Central
I believe DMR is Des Moines Register but thought a little early-80’s brit pop would take us back to a simpler time when we were legitimately worried that nuclear armageddon was just around the corner.
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Once again, here is Nate Silver’s forecast: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
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Well sure, but the story coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire is whether you won those elections or not, not how many total delegates there are when you add in unelected superdelegates.
Of course those superdelegates do count in the actual nomination, but that’s a long way off. When we get close to the convention, if the race is close enough and it looks like it could come down to the superdelegates tipping the race toward Hillary, the media will start talking more about the superdelegates. A lot more.