The use of the word ācomfortableā makes me uncomfortable.
Nate Silverās opinion
What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?
At some point, complacency could become an issue, although itās probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, Iād be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions in May, and then again in July, produced a close race. Is there anything inherently preventing those conditions from arising again? I suppose Iād wonder about what Wikileaks has up its sleeve and what sort of geopolitical events could work in Trumpās favor.
Donāt let me down
Donāt let me down
Donāt let me down
Donāt let me down
Any news today from the FBI?
Just askinā
hehe
I think the ānewsā you are looking for should arrive by Jan 2025 or soā¦ 
Iām going to guess that Clintonās October surprise is going to be a full revelation of Trumps Russian connection and she is sitting on it for now. I know she has something planned. Her campaign is too well honed not to have several strategies lined up.
Thatās two weeks in a row with Clinton over 50% in this tracking poll. Thatās news.
This was a, āIf I have to say something was a risk for Clinton, then I guess I might say ā¦ā
The whole rest of the article was, āThe sky is falling for Trump, and it includes bird beaks and exploded satellite parts!ā
I think that is all pretty valid. Fear works more in Trumps favor or the GOP in general.Wikileaks could have all sorts of stuff, but I doubt it will be anything new. Not to mention they have been backing Trump so hard it is a bit confusing. Given they are supposed to be for transparency and whatever it is strange that they are so strong on Putin and a guy like Trump.
Not to mention it is not like Trump is in the clear either. He will likely say many more stupid things. And if Russia does have emails to release and they do so, it will look like Trump is siding with Russia over the US. So this is going to be complicated for him in terms of foreign policy too.
With Donald J. Trumpf in the race, there is no such thing as a comfortable lead.
Can I just ask, why does the TPM āpoll trackerā show a closer race than anyone else, and a recent sharp drop for Clinton that no one else shows? The story touts a 9-piont lead, and the chart shows a paltry 5.2.
Nate seems to be missing a few key facts in his analysis. First, in May, Trump wrapped up his race but Bernie Sanders was still fighting an aggressive and somewhat nasty campaign. He was stoking the fires of fighting all the way to the convention to win the nomination. His supporters were solidly behind him and were not ready to accept reality at that point. That factor created a lot of statistical noise in the polling.
In July, Nate is missing the fact that the traditional polls all had this at about a 5 point race just before the conventions, and even after the Comey press conference (CNN, ABC, NBC). It was the preponderance of these internet polls, daily trackers, and GOP shops (e.g., Gravis) that were pushing the averages down, combined with the usual volatility of polling during convention season. Even Bob Dole got to within 2 points of Bill Clinton after his convention in some surveys. In addition, Bernie Sanders did not concede until late and a large # of his supporters were not ready to commit until after the Dem Convention.
After the Dem convention, we finally entered the general election period, and we finally had both parties on an equal footing. What weāve learned is that the polls in April and in June were not a fluke. Clinton is ahead because she has a united party behind her; she has demographic advantages that are making her more competitive than even Obama in a lot of states; and she has run a better campaign than Trump.
Outside events like a terrorist attack or a combination of Dallas or Baton Rouge type event (Milwaukeeās situation remains on-going) could inject more noise into the polling and could narrow the race, but I donāt see it keeping Hillary from going past 270 EVs.
The thing to look for is how third parties end up faring and how the āundecided/neitherā millennials start moving. If they start to break for Clinton, then weāre looking at an historic blowout (at least for a Democrat). Certain states which are normally tough for Democrats to win will end up looking easier on election day.
Oh Donny! It IS working. Keep it up.
This is good news, but we have almost three months until Election Day and thatās several lifetimes in politics. Anything can happen.
The biggest ally in defeating Trump is Trump himself. If Donald keeps being Donald, he wonāt be able to stop making terrible gaffes that, with any luck, will continue to alienate people except for his hard-core supportersā¦and again, letās hope that is a small enough group to not sway the results.
We shouldnāt be complacent, and I hope Mrs. Clintonās campaign realizes that. None of us should ever take good polling numbers for granted.
I donāt mean to sound negative, but I worry.
Labor Day is about two weeks away. Thatās when the concrete pour is finished. If itās not close at Labor Day, the only question is whether something drops out of the sky and splashes it out of the mold before it cures. And the further from Labor Day it happens, the bigger the meteor has to be, because once people have decided, any āgamechangersā (as the MSM likes to call them) tend to just be things that reconfirm people in their belief they made the right choice. Which is why the idea of an āOctober Surpriseā is nonsensical unless the election is within a point or three. The only kind of āOctober Surpriseā that can make a difference to this one is going to be of the ālive goat or dead girlā variety.
I donāt think thatās coming from her campaign. Its coming from the press as they keep pulling on fairly large and inviting pieces of thread. There is supposed to another story coming out about Manafortās ties later this week, for example. Trump made another appeal about being friendly with Russia at one of his rallies (that left the entire crowd silent),and of course Ivanka is āpalling aroundā with Putinās girlfriend right now in Croatia.
And then there is the NYT and others petitioning the courts to unseal Trumpās divorce records.
The Trump U case is still hovering around out there.
And there are now at least 2 cases pending against him for rape or sexual harassment.
These are all big ugly external events that will each drip their own little rain on Trumpās paradeā¦and Hillary wonāt have to do a thing with any of them.
I have very strong doubts as to whether Trump would benefit from some serious event like a terrorist attack or mass shooting. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but then thereās nothing conventional about this cycle. A terrorist attack and Trumpās likely idiotic, rash response would serve to highlight his unfitness for office. Think of Romney and Benghazi. Despite Romneyās polished and calculating attempts to capitalize on the tragedy he still wound up looking petty and opportunistic. Benghazi turned out to be a net negative for him, and Trump would be so bombastic and nasty at a time that most Americans would seek a somber statesman. Heād make it ALL about him and what he predicted and heād do so while barely even acknowledging the victims. I think a terrorist attack would ultimately only serve to further expose how uniquely unfit he is to be president.
Because the poll tracker has a lot of online ātrackingā polls included, that have been shown a significant Trump bias. USC/LA being perhaps the most notable, though I think Josh finally started excluding them from the aggregate because they were SO out of line with every other poll.
RCP has her up 6.7,
Huffington Post has her up 8.3
Donāt get too caught up in the specific numbers howeverā¦all of the polls show Hillary making a big separation post conventions, even the Trump biased ones. The state by state polls for the battlegrounds looks even worse for Trumpā¦todays WaPo has him down 15 in Virginia, for exampleā¦pretty much making it not a battleground anymore.
Good news, but ācomfortableā shouldnāt even be in our vocabulary.