How many of these polls are oversampling whites and undersampling minorities and younger folk? Do they give the demographics? Because if they are oversampling, then Trump is really losing.
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I would also add this:
Yes, the polls are tightening, and yes, Hillary did not have a good weekend. In a long campaign, these things happen. My guess is there will be other hiccups for Secretary Clinton before this election is over.
THAT SAID:
Donnieās business dealing are getting increased scrutiny (including that devastating cover story in Newsweek). Also, todayās latest publicity stunt on Dr. Oz, followed by the revelation that Donnieās website was easily hacked, exposing some interns to ID theft. Wanna bet Hillary, who was a debate champ, is currently weaponizing these latest outrages? Also, Hillary will shine brightly in the debates because she has an amazing command of the facts. She also knows how to think on her feet and speaks in complete, intelligent sentences. Letās wait until mid-October to decide whether itās freak out time, mmmmkay?
Remember after the first debate in 2012? The Great Freakout over President Romney? Yeah, how did that turn out?? 
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The CNN Florida poll assumes 25% black and Hispanic, 75% white. In 2012, the black and Hispanic vote was 30% (looked it up this afternoon). Iāve also read that Clinton leads in the CNN Florida registered voter poll. So, CNN is assuming that non-white vote will fall as a percentage of the total vote. If CNN has explained why they conclude that the shape of the electorate will be so different from 2012, I havenāt seen it. The Selzer Ohio poll that shows Trump ahead, today, assumes that the electorate will like 2004 (!), rather than 2012 or 2008. In a later written explanation, Selzer says āno one knows what the electorate will look like.ā That is certainly professional.
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Everyone on the planet should have heard of Aleppo by now. Where Bashar al Assadās military drops barrel bombs containing chlorine. Where his military starves his own people. But Johnson has no idea where or what Aleppo is. He thought it was some strange acronym.
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so, you live in a blue state, and feel comfortable voting for the non-entity. but if you lived in a swing state youād vote for hillary. and if you lived in a red state youād vote for ??? or just not vote? you sound
pretty politically flexible. not impressed.
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On what basis do they assume that the electorate will look like 2004, especially with a host of new voters that consists of a great deal of minorities?
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the kid in the shell shocked photo is from alleppo, as was his dead brother.
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According to PEW Research, the white electorate for this cycle is at 69%.
In fact, according to PEW, āThere are 10.7 million more eligible voters today than there were in 2012. More than two-thirds of net growth in the U.S. electorate during this time has come from racial and ethnic minorities. Hispanics, blacks, Asians and other minorities had a net increase of 7.5 million eligible voters, compared with a net increase of 3.2 million among non-Hispanic white eligible voters.ā
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This is why Iām a brown, (barely) millennial who is enthusiastic and passionate about HRC. I think she will be a great prez but racism has already become more socially acceptable to express. People think it canāt happen here. It can. And I have been making sure to tell every friend and family member about it. And I am donating vigorously. And tomorrow, I volunteer. I donāt want to regret not doing something in 8 weeks.
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Polls are confusing, in fact, they should be called roller coasters for accuracies sake.
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That is sedition. Because, for the highest office in the land, they are altering reality when they should be reporting it.
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Try to reach as many people as possible with your message. If Trump wins, say goodbye to the United States as you know it.
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They will be responsible for a great deal of harm Trump will cause. And, because they are the āstorytellersā, they will escape scrutiny.
At this point, all we can do is try to reach as many voters as possible. When we turned over the news media to fact-free democracy (the Brits call it āpost-factualā democracy and their system is better than ours), we sealed our own doom. As I had posted earlier, I was of the mind that Ezra Klein had put forthā¦that the MSM was wary of Trump.
They are not. They ARE Trump.
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I know. Point is, this so called Presidential candidate didnāt know a damned thing about Aleppo. Likely he hasnāt seen the image of that kid.
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if enough people in CA think exactly the same way that you do (in their belief that itās a āsafeā protest vote), you could see Trump end up winning the state of California
I think thereās a real risk of that, actually. All of Orange County is Trump territory and so are parts of the bay area. Bay area may even split between Stein and Trump, with the exception of Oakland, which I expect will vote for Clinton. But yeah, donāt be so sure it canāt happen here.
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Iām not ready to write off the media quite yet. Washington Post, Kurt Eichenwald, Katy Tur at NBC, Joy Reid/Lawrence/Maddow/Chris Hayes at MSNBC have been doing excellent work. If Farenthold doesnāt win a Pulitzer for his dogged pursuit of the truth at Trump Foundationā¦
That said, I am truly, truly disgusted with the New York Times. Two weeks ago, I was ready to cancel my subscription, but I stopped myself because I didnāt want to to turn into the liberal version of the ācrazy peopleā who only get their news from Breitbart/Fox News because the only want to read things that fully agree with them.
But when I open up the NY Times page at midday today, expecting to read multiple articles about Eichenwaldās incredible story about Trumpās foreign ties, and see a giant picture of Trump with Dr. Oz? And discussion of how Clinton and Trump have both released records? Nope. All we know is that Trump showed Dr. Oz two pieces of paper. For all we know it was a letter threatening him or his family if he didnāt go along.
No sir. That subscription, cancelled! Itās like they and CNN are in a race to see who can fall farthest. I canāt even watch CNN anymoreā¦
Geez, my hometown papers in Texas have been harder on Trump than the NY Times. No, noā¦ Esquire and freaking Cosmopolitan magazine have been producing more hard-hitting journalism on Trump of late. Meanwhile, NYT wants to softball Trump, ignore serious questions and malign Clinton to no end, so that it can appeal to right-wingers who are NEVER leaving Breitbart to return to them EVER again, assuming that moderates and progressives will keep reading no matter what.
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I donāt know how you can be taken seriously as a presidential candidate if you donāt know the basics about the foremost international issue currently. This isnāt not knowing microscopic details (which you bet your ass HRC knows as well). How do you not know what Aleppo is? I mean, āAnd what isā¦ Aleppo?ā followed by āOh, got it! Got it!ā His whole schtick is predicated on getting into the debates so he can show himself - how are you not studying your tail off so that when you do get national media exposure (like this) you come off as studious and well-prepared for the job, so you can get your poll numbers up and get to the debates.
Iām also more than icked out by his plan. His plan is to just grab enough states that no one gets to 270, throwing the election into the House, where he presumes he will win against Trump and Clinton. So heās not even TRYING to get a majority of votes. What is that?
Of course, I also donāt know how a serious candidate makes fun of the disabled; goes after a Gold Star family; bans entire religions from the US; threatens to deport 11 million people via a deportation force (oh sorry, deportation TASK force); says heās going to build a giant expensive wall (that either is built on US soil and deprives us of river access, is build on Mexico and deprives them of river access or is built in the middle of the river somehow, driving the cost of the wall WAY up) and make another sovereign nation pay for it or steal the money from residents here sending the money to relatives; steal the property of sovereign nations; donates other peopleās money to charity as though it is his own donationā¦ OK, Iām tired.
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I have at least 4 family members (and their friends) who avidly supported Bernie and are now going for Stein, even though they live in Ohio. I suspect the never-Trumps who care enough about their country to not vote for him are not going to vote Stein or Johnson, because theyāre clearly no more qualified than Trump. Those that canāt bring themselves to vote for Hillary will likely not vote or will write-in someone with at least a basic competency level.
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Provided youāre okay with someone who had Assange speak at her āconventionā, thinks the DNC hack is much ado about nothing, and has ties to Russia Today, Iād say your conscience is clear.
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Unfortunately, this analysis is spot on. There will be a pool of about 240 million Americans of voting age that could technically qualify to vote, but about 80 million of those will never vote and most have never even registered to vote. If there is as much passion as there was in the 2012 election, then we can expect about 135 million voters to show up. Thatās still probably good enough for Democrats, although what matters is not how individual vote nationally, but what happens in individual states. If we see lower turnout than 135 million, it may suggest low enthusiasm for the candidates at the top of the ticket.