I don’t disagree. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out in New Hampshire later this evening/tomorrow morning. And I say that regarding both the D and the R sides. I have to admit, seeing Marco Roboto face-planting (so far) is pretty awesome. Seeing Kasich currently coming in 2nd is a bit of a shock.
As Josh says in the Edblog, what (if anything) portents that has for the GOP and their nomination mud pit, who knows. I would like to think the GOP is waking up a little from their fever swamp of Derp™, but I doubt it. Kasich is 100% the most dangerous candidate the GOP could put forward this cycle form the Democratic perspective. But we shall see.
5 republicans make it out of New Hampshire…Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Bush and Rubio. The rest drop out.
Kasich doesn’t have the money or organization to last much beyond the next two states, and his numbers will sink right back down to their normal levels in those elections. Bush needs to beat Rubio in one or the other, probably SC to stay in it till Florida. Cruz needs to be placing 1st or 2nd in both contests. If he is 3rd or worse in both, his campaign is basically over, though he has the money and organization to run much longer, and probably will. There will be “For the good of the party” moment for Cruz.
As far as Trump goes, I don’t think we see what his ground game really is until SC. NH is mostly an aberration, its pretty notorious for voting for the quirks on the GOP side, particularly this year. He is expected to place 1st in both…a 2nd in either raises questions.
At this point including the superdelegates is, well, not a real measure.
as in 08, when the political winds are blowing, the superdelegates go with it. they are much more fluid than delegates selected though primaries. (she may retain them, I’m merely reminding that they are not a foregone conclusion)
however, I agree, it’s not a setback as it was expected. (Margins may change that perception, I suppose)
Sure, but “I’m winning big among unelected delegates” isn’t the most compelling media spin, nor the best argument to voters in upcoming states.
But I will note that New Hampshire isn’t winner-take-all, and in fact its rather strange delegate apportionment rules mean that Bernie will have to win with over 56% in each Congressional District to win more than an even split in delegates. Thus, if Hillary holds Bernie to less than 56%, she wins 1/2 the New Hampshire delegates, and with her (narrow) existing delegate lead from Iowa, she would still be slightly ahead of Bernie in elected delegates. Even if he gets more the 56%, she gets nearly half. So either way, at best Bernie ends up with a slight lead in elected delegates from the first two states. Of course number of delegates, elected or unelected, isn’t really the main issue at this point, it’s all about “media narrative” and “perceived momentum.”.
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Assuming no extraordinary turnaround, it looks like all that remains is to see how big a win for Bernie and how the media plays it. As a point of reference, RCP’s final polling average showed Bernie winning by 13.3 points. Here’s my sense of how things play out in terms of media narrative depending on the results:
Single digits – Hillary “wins” the expectations game – and wins it big.
10-12 points – Hillary will have beaten the polling averages by a couple points, so probably decent spin for Hillary
13-14 points – “tough night for Hillary” / “solid win for Bernie.” Good for Bernie, but not terrible for Hillary.
15-20 points – “Bernie wins big,” beats the polling averages for the second time in a row, a lot of “could Hillary stumble” talk.
Over 20 points – Major (and quite stupid) “Hillary in freefall” freakout.
I’m pretty sure Hillary will keep it well under 20 points. And I doubt it will be in the single digits. But I have no idea which of the three other (somewhat arbitrary) categories it will fall in.
Kasich isn’t much of a shock. He’s lived in NH for the past 6 months and is the only semi-rational guy in a field of Chicken Littles. He also is a good retail politician. I really hope he doesn’t have much of an organization cuz he’s the guy with the easiest path to the WH imo among all candidates, Republican & Democrat.
I stand foursquare with Josh Marshall who said it as bluntly as it can be said: “Sanders would be cut to pieces in a general election.” Josh’s words should be ice cold water in the faces of Democrats everywhere. The Democratic Party must repudiate the far left and nominate Secretary Clinton, a true Democrat in the mold of President Obama.
I’m not sure that Clinton would really fair much better. Her negatives are sky high. This is not a statement in favor of Sanders. Just saying I think Clinton’s path is very, very difficult.
[Standard Disclaimer: This commenter wishes it to be known that in November he or she plans to vote for the Democratic nominee, whoever that turns out to be, and will encourage their fellow primary candidate supporters to do likewise.]
Some items from the exit polls – among voters who voted in the Democratic primary:
Honesty and trustworthiness is the most important candidate attribute, selected by more than three in 10 voters in preliminary exit poll results. Next are “someone who cares about people like me” and experience, at just more than a quarter each. Only about one in 10 are choosing “electability” as the top attribute. In Iowa, Sanders won with honesty and empathy voters, Clinton on experience and electability.
Far more New Hampshire voters see Sanders as honest and trustworthy than Clinton, and they feel he shares their values more so than she does.
Among four issues, more Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire say income inequality or the economy/jobs are their top issues, each cited by about a third. Health care is a top issue for about a quarter of voters, while terrorism trails far behind in priority.
Sanders does much better than Clinton in trust to handle income inequality and the economy, and somewhat better on health care; they’re even on gun policy. Clinton beats Sanders in trust to handle one remaining issue: an international crisis.
Two-thirds of voters support replacing the current health care system with a “single taxpayer-funded plan for all Americans,” a policy Sanders has championed.
Also it looks like there was a big turnout of young voters and independent voters.
Edit: Oops, forgot the link. Here it is. You have to scroll down a bit to get to the “DEM CONTEST” part:
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So its 33-29, Bernie, after two very white states. He is down 30 points in a more racially mixed SC and roughly 20ish (very low number of polls, so its hard to tell…but she leads in everyone that has been done) in NV.
And then Super Tuesday with AL, AR, CO, GA, MA, MN, OK, TN, TX, VT, and VA. Hillary has big leads in all of them, except VT. Yes, even MA and MN where she is roughly 30 points up in last polls.
If he gets a REALLY big bump from the media over tonight, lets be generous and say he picks up a whopping 15 in all these states. He still loses them.
Sorry, but I just don’t see an as projected victory in NH propelling him to that sort of jump. What it will do is give the press its horse race story for a few weeks…and dramatically increase the spotlight on Bernie…right when his campaign is leaving a litter trail a mile wide behind themselves.
The good news for his campaign is, the GOP will most definitely be giving him a pass the next few weeks, if not actively endorsing and sending in those $27 checks.
The FBI is not investigating Hillary Clinton. They are investigating emails that were not classified at the time, being classified now. There is not one single legitimate story saying they are investigating her. The FBI has said they are not investigating her. Even the trashy crap you linked doesn’t say they are investigating her.
But your bulb is too dull to even go on and realize that.
