“As I noted to another commenter above, the recent Des Moines Register poll asked the question with Biden, and without Biden, and the difference between Hillary and Bernie’s numbers only changed by one point. Same thing in recent New Hampshire polling. It looks like in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe is pulling a nearly equal portion of his votes from Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters.”
I do agree that if they’re going to ask the question including Biden, they should also ask the question without him, so that we can see the difference.
You make some valid points; but just for the record:
On the emails, she didn’t use the word “apologize,” she used the word “sorry” – which she’d also used in the prior interview, in virtually the same context (not “I’m sorry I was so evil as to do this awful thing, I beg your forgiveness, O great media figures” but “I’m sorry this has become such a clusterfuck of a story.”)
She didn’t say the PP videos were disturbing, she said some of the pictures in them (of late-stage fetal body parts – the propagandists edited out exculpatory stuff but inserted emotional-trigger-bait) were; and in the same interview she strongly defended PP and continues to do so.
She didn’t give “only qualified support” to the Iran deal, she gave it her full-throated, unqualified support. She also talked tough about its enforcement and other issues with Iran, which may or may not be one’s cuppa tea; but that in no way diluted her unequivocal support for the deal. And far from distancing herself from Obama, she’s (justifiably) claiming credit for having gotten the world together on the sanctions regime that got Iran to the table.
Just a few reminders that getting her (or any politician’s) stuff first-hand is infinitely more reliable than depending on today’s political “reporting.”
On Keystone, you have a point (though I don’t think her reason for withholding judgment is utterly bogus; she did come out against drilling in the Arctic, but only after the Administration made its [wrong, opposite] decision). And on the minimum wage, college affordability, et al., she has solid positions that don’t go as far as Bernie’s but are still big improvements (and fwiw, some solidly progressive economists think Bernie’s specs go too far). But that’s what campaigns are about.
She does need to get fully into spring-2008 campaign mode, and her staff needs to up their communications game; but she’s given some terrific speeches already, and hasn’t been performing nearly as badly as so many here think. I don’t doubt that virtually all of us here will vote for whoever the Dem nominee is; but I do worry, if it’s Hillary, about a lack of enthusiasm driven more by what people think they know of her, her positions, and her campaign, from the Heathers and plain incompetents in the media, than by the actual facts about the woman herself.
This poll did have a follow-up question for Biden supporters about who they would support if Biden didn’t enter the race, and as you said, Biden pulls about equally from both Clinton and Sanders. Still, I’d rather the main question be asked without extraneous stuff; polls can be very sensitive to the exact wording of a question and even to the order in which the questions are asked. The main question, if the election were held today, who would you vote for, should be asked first and with pretty much unvaried wording.
Didn’t say Hillary has written of younger voters so not sure why you came to that conclusion, said the people she needs to reach right now don’t use social media, so she’s focusing on other areas of outreach and communication.
Her base is Democratic primary voters. Obviously she needs to do outreach to capture the youth vote, but they don’t vote in primary elections so more (not all, but more) of her energies and focus are on those demographics that consistently vote in the primary.
I agree that’s her strategy, and I’d say it’s a very conventional / mainstream approach, and perhaps a perfectly reasonable one when she was, as we heard again and again, “the prohibitive frontrunner,” with no serious competition. But the situation has changed. It’s turning into a real race, with an insurgent candidate, Bernie, who is tied with or ahead of her in Iowa and New Hampshire and making modest but steady gains elsewhere, AND with a possible late entrant, Joe Biden, who threatens to siphon off a substantial number of her potential supporters and could potentially completely shake up the race. At this point she needs every vote she can get, same as her opponents do. If her campaign is not doing everything they can to gain the support of young voters and new voters, they’d better get on it pronto. If they are doing the best they can, and this is the best they can do…that’s not great either.
Again, it’s not an AGE demographic, it’s a primary voter demographic. You’re completely missing the point and the concept of long and short term strategies (plural) for campaigning and the difference between primary and general election campaigns.
You mean only gray hairs can vote in the primaries? What happens if the youngsters come out and vote for Bernie? I have a daughter who is talking about doing just that.
You sound like McArthur on December 6, 1941. Somebody once told me complacency lost more battles than anything else.
You mean only gray hairs can vote in the primaries?
I’ll repeat for the third and last time as I feel like I’m arguing with a 2 year old. This has nothing to do with AGE, it has to do with PRIMARY VOTERS, of which age is only a small demographic. Hillary is not ignoring the 18-24 crowd or the 18-24 voters, she’s just not spending the majority of her resources on social media. I can also assure you that Bernie Sanders isn’t spending all his resources on social media either, but the primary voters he needs to reach are very big users of social media, Hillary’s not as much so her energies are focused elsewhere.
I realize you think I am stupid, but unlike you I actually read the polls. Hillary is doing great with the over 65 liberal demographic. She sucks with younger voters. She is going to need those younger voters when she gets to the general. There aren’t enough over 65 liberals to out vote the over 65 conservatives. If she is the prohibitive favorite the way everybody claims she needs to start lining up those younger voters right now. If she isn’t as strong as you think she is going to lose again the same way she did last time. I don’t give a damn how many “super delegates” she lines up, they will melt like snow in July if Bernie wins three primaries in a row. Like somebody fighting the last war you poo-poo social media. If you don’t pay attention to social media these days you are screwed. Bernie Sanders is working social media. If he wasn’t he wouldn’t be drawing the big crowds. Social media is cheap in comparison to television and far more effective with younger people.
