I don’t think she is going to be crowned by the Archbishop of Canterbury. Hillary has to give people a good reason to vote for her.
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Bernie is doing well with social media. His campaign is totally under the radar. My daughter has become a Bernie follower because she is on social media.
A lot of reporters and campaign professionals don’t believe social media is very valuable. Of course, there were people who didn’t think the automobile would last as well.
While I think 2016 is going to be known as the “reality show” election, the real advance will be the move to campaigning via social media that is being exploited heavily by Bernie.
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Yeah. The Times, in particular, is feeling nostalgic for the '90s (Whitewater! Vince Foster! Blue dress! Blargh…) and really has an axe to grind.
Sorry, Berners, you can win the early rural white states, but it’s still gonna be Hillary, dollars to donuts. However, the kid gloves with which The Times is handling Jeb suggests that if he doesn’t get Trumped, he’ll coast to the presidency on a shit slide of nasty, unbalanced and unfair coverage of his Democratic opponent, just as his brother did (with an assist from the Supreme Court, of course). And if it comes to that, I’m sure he can count on five votes!
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Are we SURE Coakley isn’t running Clinton’s campaign?
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I’d say the margin of error is +/- 3-4 percent PLUS 12% because they stupidly included Joe Biden who is not running for President in the poll.
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That’s not true at all. Obama owned social media in 2008, it’s been on EVERY politico’s radar since then if not before. Hillary’s base doesn’t use social media (except Facebook where she has a strong presence) as much as Bernie’s which is very young, very social media savvy but also very narrow in the media they take in. Hillary’s advantage is that she’s everywhere, and can afford to be.
At the end of the day, elections are about choices. She is a better choice than any realistic option of either party.
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I am on facebook a lot. Trust me, Hillary’s presence is minimal compared to Bernie’s. He gets tons of shares. I can’t go an hour without something involving Bernie floating down my page. Hillary, not so much. Maybe I just don’t have any friends who like Hillary, but I don’t think so. The people running Hillary’s facebook campaign are just not getting the job done. Her fat, dumb and happy campaign team just don’t seem to be very tuned in. They keep saying things like, “its early,” “its the media’s fault,” or “she will win because she has all the endorsements from the professionals.” Hundreds of super delegate endorsements will evaporate in the face of election victories.
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Agreed, but she might not last that long if she doesn’t start selling.
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TPM could have written a much better article from this poll. For example, it shows that Sanders is doing best among those 18-34 and among those making less than 34K, while Clinton is doing best among those over 65 and making over 100K. It’s a pretty stark – older, richer = Clinton, younger, poorer = Sanders.
It’s got to be sobering for Chafee to get no recognition at all, and for O’Malley and Webb to be polling less than “don’t know/no answer” and the margin of error. I guess all three really are just running for Vice President.
But really, as Sesame Street says “one of these things is not like the others” and Biden is not a declared candidate. Interesting that his appeal is right across the spectrum of ages and incomes, but he’s not running, and including him just invalidates the whole poll regarding who’s ahead.
…this is also her disadvantage…
The point is he has made up a 20 point deficit there and clearly has momentum. If he does the same in a couple of more early states and suddenly it will be 2008 for Hillary all over again.
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I thought in 2008 she eventually became the better campaigner. After about March 20th in 2008 her speeches were better than Obama’s, and they kept getting better and better. Her last three speeches, including her concession speech were fantastic. The problem is, by the time she caught a good wave, around March 20th, it was over. The same could be true here as well. If Bernie were to win the 1st two states, then everyone in the next two rounds will be looking him over, and many will like what they see. If he then wins the next two or three states, then its probably over even though 90% of the states will have yet voted in primaries. That means it will be all over by around March 20th again. Hillary’s problem as a national candidate is she has a long runway - and I suppose that has to do with her media coverage, etc…
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One problem Hillary has is that she is running for office in the same way she would approach a problem as Secretary of State – she’s working in the back rooms to get all her ducks in a row. Problem is that where secrecy is a necessity in international negotiations, it’s not acceptable from a candidate for President. She’s ignoring the voters, who are the whole point, and all this back-room dealing with no public presence to speak of makes her look shifty and dishonest.
I expect to be voting for HRC a year from November, but I might not caucus for her in the spring. As in 2008, she is way too cautious in the early going, probably because she thinks she has a big primary lead over an outsider. She may be right, but she totally bungled her response to the faux scandal about her private email server beginning with her failure to address it promptly and thoroughly. She still doesn’t have a consistent answer, most recently using the word “apologize” just a day after saying she had nothing to apologize for. She waffles on fossil fuels including Keystone, falls short of where majority Dem opinion is on the minimum wage and college loans, qualifies her support for Planned Parenthood by saying the videos were “disturbing,” and just yesterday gave only qualified support to the Iran agreements, distancing herself from a president who boosted her presidential ambitions with a key cabinet role.That’s just plain awkward. Sanders has been right on the issues I care about, to-the-point, passionate, visible, and open-minded. It’s a contrast.
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By one point when someone not running is included. What happens if Al Gore is included? Mickey Mouse? JFK? Why are pollsters including VPOTUS, who is not running?
A tie (allocating Biden’s votes 47 to HRC and 44% to Sanders) results in about a tie. But c’mon! The press outs itself as a joke by reporting the Biden numbers instead of the numbers with people running.
Full disclosure - I support Sanders.
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Not saying her facebook shares are more than Bernie’s, just that her target audience (mid-older voting Democrats) don’t use social media as much as Bernie’s potential audience (younger non-voting Democrats and non-affiliated) do so she’s using other channels to reach to them. She’s not ignoring social media, she’s not using it because the people she needs to reach right now don’t use it, the opposite is true for Bernie.
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OK, so Hillary has written off younger voters?
You realize that her “base” is the same age as the Republican base. She damn well better move to capture the younger voters. That is where the 2016 election will be won or lost. That is Bernie’s great strength. He knows how to reach them.
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The recent Des Moines Register poll asked the question with Biden, and without Biden, and the difference between Hillary and Bernie’s numbers only changed by one point. Same thing in recent New Hampshire polling. It looks like in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe is pulling a nearly equal portion of his votes from Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters.
I do agree they ought to ask the question both ways, since Joe hasn’t officially joined the race. It’s quite possible that they did in this poll as well, but it just isn’t reported in this article. That’s the way it was with the Des Moines Register poll, and people were making the same complaint you are.