Discussion: After Trump Praised Him For Refusing To 'Break,' Manafort Mulling Flipping

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Oh, please be true!!!

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There are two potential storylines in the reporting. One is pleading guilty to avoid a trial, the other is cooperating with prosecutors to reduce his sentence, or ā€˜flipping.ā€™ Letā€™s hope the second is in play.

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So Paul do you want to spend the rest of your life in jail or just half of the rest of your life in jail?

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Manafort should know that Trump doesnā€™t pay his debts, so a deal along the lines of ā€œif you stay quiet, youā€™ll get a pardonā€ is not realistic, because it would involve trusting Trump. As long as Manafort is not flipping, Trump has no reason to pardon him - Trump is getting what he wants, and there is no upside for Trump to pardon Manafort. Manafort may be trying to figure out a way to leverage his position to get a pardon up front. Not sure how that will work, though.

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Who is the Best Grifter Trump or Manafort?

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ā€¦and they call him Flipper, Flipperā€¦

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The fix is in. He is going to plead out without handing anything over. He then gets a pardon ASAP (early next year). Why spend the money on a trial if you are Manafort?

is there ANY WAY heā€™ll plead to something in STATE COURT? That would prevent Trump from pardoning him !! Are any of you lawyers who could address whether federal/state plea deals occur, how often, if anything prevents such things from happening? Are any of the Fed charges he faces applicable to NY, Virginia, or other state criminal statutes?

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He can plea out without Muller being involved. Mueller, as far as I can see, has no incentive to reduce a sentance just to not go to trial.

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Which is where Mueller has additional leverage. He has no incentive to ease Manafortā€™s financial burden of a trial, and can use that threat to try to reach a cooperation agreement.

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This is the 3rd article since his conviction that has discussed a plea agreement w/the OSC. The tone or ā€˜body languageā€™ of this WAPO piece felt a little different to me. It appeared to me that the decision to enter a plea has been made, and that what is going on right now is the work among the lawyers to see if a deal can be arrived at.

Prior to the first trial, all the body language coming from the Manafort team indicated that they intended to go to trial and the chances of a pre-trial flip were well below 50%. It left me scratching my head, but now I see what his strategy was. He was gambling on a mistrial and that somehow the negative publicity from such a result to Mueller would undermine the investigation and give Trump the opening to kill it. I think he always had in the back of his mind that if he lost trial #1, he would not be able to do trial #2. It was a riverboat gamble and he lost.

The body language since the first trial has been wholly different in my view.

Manafort has a little leverage in that he is likely to plea to the charges any way because conviction is a near 100% certainty. By stating a plea, the judge may have a bit more flexibility in deciding sentencing than if he were to be convicted again by a jury (though who knows what cranky Judge Ellis will do on the VA charges). So, Manafortā€™s lawyers can tell Mueller that the OSC is on a clock because their client is going to plea before the trial date and Mueller better offer up some good deals if he wants any cooperation.

However, if Manafort wants a number of charges dropped to reduce his overall time in jail, the only place to go is Robert Mueller. Therefore, I do think Manafortā€™s lawyers, now that they appear to be empowered by their client to look at settlement, will be finding some way to get a better result for their client in terms of jail time.

I think Mueller wants Manafort not only in order to expose his connection to #trumprussia, but also to unravel the larger Russian crime and spy syndicate that has deeply infiltrated our politics and our financial system. Manafort will have to give it all up to Mueller, or Mueller is perfectly willing to let him rot in jail without a deal. I do think we should see a conclusion to this before the end of the month.

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This is a great point that I hadnā€™t thought of before. Trump could pardon Manafort, but if Manafort is financially ruined from legal fees (and a pariah to all lenders), what good will a pardon be to him?

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Good point that a lot of people have missed. If there is no benefit for Trump to pardon Manafort after heā€™s gone to jail to save Trump why would he do it? Out of loyalty? Ha! It seems that after everything weā€™ve seen there is still a tendency to think that Trump will follow through on his promises like a normal person. But heā€™s not even a normal criminal.

The question is whether Manafort realizes this. Given that he has spent his entire life dealing with scumbags you would think he does.

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"You dirty, double-crossing rat!" ā€“ James Cagney quote, and soon to be a Donnie quote

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I think cooperating with law enforcement officials should be a crime.

If he spent half of the rest of my life in jail, that would make me happy.

Keep in mind though that a pardon costs Spankee nothing. If it was money I wouldnā€™t bet on Manafort seeing any.

By stating a plea, the judge may have a bit more flexibility in deciding sentencing than if he were to be convicted again by a jury (though who knows what cranky Judge Ellis will do on the VA charges)

14 days per guilty verdict.

Can you tell Iā€™m not happy today?

Trump expects loyalty. He does not give it.

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And worst of all, the Ostrich jacket and all the other fruits of his tax evasion and money laundering will be forfeitedā€¦

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Iā€™m not a lawyer, so take this with a grain of salt. I would think if he pleads guilty, a pardon might spring him from prison, but wonā€™t wipe out the stench of his guilty plea.

If he pleads guilty without an agreement he has to plead guilty on every charge. Canā€™t just plead on those with lesser penalties, because heā€™ll still face a trial on the most serious charges. Then the issue becomes sentencing.

Consequences: lengthy prison terms. Huge legal debts. Govā€™t tosses his wife out on the street and auctions off familyā€™s assets.

If he cuts a deal, he can hope for sentencing recommendation on the lighter side and a roof over his wifeā€™s head.

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