Discussion for article #247143
I donāt think Bernieās win in Michigan was as huge as it seems, thanks to Michigan awarding its delegates proportionally.
Bernie basically needs like 61% of the remaining delegates. Any state primary where he gets less than 61% just means he needs a larger percentage of the votes from the states after that.
Certainly winning by a few percentage points is better than losing by 20, but if he and Hillary basically tied, then he did nothing to close the gap and he now has fewer states in which to do it.
Unless Iām mathing wrong
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I have to admit that this election has been a lot more fun than I thought it would be.
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āthe Democratic socialist ā¦ā
Thatās an interesting capitalization, and I wonder if it is on purpose. There is no Social Democratic party in the United States, so probably capitalizing both ā Democratic Socialist ā is incorrect here. And Bernie doesnāt capitalize either ā democratic socialist ā because itās a description and not a name and he is not (to my knowledge) a registered Democrat.
But he is seeking the nomination for president of the United States from the Democratic Party, which means maybe he is a Democratic socialist. But even then, the words are in the wrong order because the proper name ā Democratic ā doesnāt modify socialist so should come second. If you are calling him a Democrat with socialist beliefs we should call him a socialist Democrat.
Now that Iāve thought of all this and taken the time to write this, I wonder if it was just the way the writer typed it and there was no intent.
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From a delegate perspective MI didnāt matter all that much, getting more votes gives Bernie the momentum needed to have a shot at the 61% he needs. A loss continues the theme that he canāt get over the hump.
The odds are not really changed all that much based on delegate count, but from an optics perspective it means a lot. A headline āSanders Wins MIā does more for him than āClinton continues winning.ā
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I think the headline would have been equally impactful had she won, since the narrative would be spun that Clinton had effectively closed the door on Bernie, āprovingā he couldnāt win enough minority votes in rustbelt states either accompanied by public calls to get out of the race. It certainly had potential to have that devastating effect on the morale of his supporters had he lost.
The narrative now is that he can win a large enough plurality of minority votes to win in regions outside of the South. Instead of a mortal blow it turned out to be a hit of adrenaline. Now we get to learn if it has legs.
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Thatās what I said. āSanders Wins MIā does more for him than āClinton continues winning.ā
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Well, the South is almost behind them and if Bernie can match or exceed Hillary in the Midwest, and then scoop up big double digit wins out west, like he did in Kansas, then he has a chance.
The most important thing is for America get out from under the 35 year regime of supply-side bias policies and back to FDRās demand side bias policies. Bernie is still the only candidate openly espousing demand side bias policies, though I noticed Trump is complaining about the crumbling infrastructure too, so in my mind his nomination to the GOP ticket is better than any others on the GOP side. So, the promise of getting out of supply-side regime is less remote. I do wish Hillary would come out with a demand side imperative econ policy, however sheās indicated that the best we can get from her is more of the same of what we have now, unfortunately.
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I can see that. Time will tell if the Sanders campaign can use Michigan as a springboard. Iām just saying that tying didnāt help his numbers to this point.
Personally, I think Sanders will not win, but the work heās done this cycle might carry over and make the path easier for future progressives.
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ThatĀ“s why IĀ“m really pulling for him. His success puts the lie to the notion that this country finds things like universal access to care, affordable college, and economic justice to be casually dismissed political unicorns. The ĀØit-canĀ“t-be-done-hereĀØ crowd are either cynical, or lacking in political imagination, or both.
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And a tie in Ohio would meanā¦ that he lost.
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Isnāt that something that can only be proven by a general election victory?
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Hillaryās softer position on fracking could be the difference if its close. Youngstown area has allegedly benefited economically from the boom in nearby PA.
http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/youngstown-ohio-is-a-city-changed-by-fracking-20140518
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If winning the eventual election is your standard, sure. Mine is having an white haired Jewish Socialist with a Brooklyn accent giving an MOR candidate with a Kardasianesque name recognition and a yearsĀ“ long mantle of inevitability a run for her money in the Democratic primary.
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The problem is that Bernie may win the nomination, but like Goldwater, will never win the Presidency. My non-fun moment is that Trump or Cruz obtain the Republican nomination Is this the best our political system can pull into the system. I want someone who can look at a problem as a problem to be solved, not a opportunity for political advantage. I think Mrs. Clinton has that ability, but so does Mrs. Whitman, Paul Ryan and several others. I heard an interview with the Flint Mayor, and she was asked with Hillary did, Hilary contacted the mayor to ask what she needed, she set people to the area to determine what was going on and what needed to be immediately done to resolved the issue, she acquired some donation for help provide water to Flint citizens. The Mayor was asked what Bernie did, she stated that she has not heard from Sen. Sanders, has not even talked to him. That is why I am for Hillary, she knows how to identity the problem and try to resolve it or mediate the effects of the problem, Sen. Sanders just want to talk about it, but actually doesnāt do anything.
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Strange how no one mentions, including the prof from OSU, that it is Spring Break for the large state university system on primary day and younger Berners will be out of town. And it is also strange how Husted Ā® made a determination 17 year olds who would be 18 at the time of the general would be barred from voting in the primary for the first time.
I also question how many of the factory workers of yesteryear are still Democrats, especially if they live in more exurban/rural areas of the state. (The factory jobs left the cities in the 1970ās chasing white flight workers) No one I know in rural Ohio is still a Democrat. That is why they will be voting in the Republican primary. Those 1980ās Reagan Democrats are either dead or Republicans now. Working class whites in Ohio are Republican.
I would like a study on how many people really switch parties in Ohio for a primary, I canāt imagine it is many. Independents in Ohio lean heavily Republican, so if they take advantage of the āopen primaryā they are with the party they have always been loyalā¦they are really Republican anyway.
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Have you forgotten the fight that Republicans have given Obama for Obamacare, Is more that than just a casual dismissal, it is impossible to actually implement without the Sanders āRevolutionā. Do you really think there is going to be a āRevolutionā when Bernie followers are excited that he wins Michigan by one percent point. I am not being a spoil sport for your dreams and hopes, but the reality is that it just isnāt going to happen. Someday, when the Millennials actually run for office, maybe they can change it, but by then they will be paying taxes and saving for retirement and probably will have a different world view.
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I suppose itās possible that the polling could be wrong and he could win OH with a 1.5 point margin. There are 4 other state races next Tuesday too. Itās possible too that Michigan was a polling fluke. The pollsters got a couple wrong in 2008 but did ok in the rest of them.
Florida, with itās 214 delegates,is a closed primary-Democrats only. Thatāll be interesting.
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See, right thereĀ“s your problem with HRC. She proposes that some private entity comes to give a band-aid to a problem that is a government problem from one end to the other. Sanders called on Snyder to resign right away, and said that heĀ“s fire the head of the EPA; HRC waited until the night of their Flint debate to call for SnyderĀ“s removal, and said that everyone at the EPA responsible for the agencyĀ“s failure in the matter was gone, which was untrue. HRC spent a lot of time and effort in Flint; in the end, they essential split the county vote.
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No, this article is bull crap because the reason Senator Sanders won in Michigan was because 28 percent of unaffiliated voters voted for him, and 3 percent of registered republicans also voted for him. If NAFTA was a big deciding factor than Hillary would not have won with registered democrats. DUH! It was independents and young voters who powered Senator Sanders, and I am sure many of the young voters never even heard of NAFTA. They do know that Senator Sanders has a plan for free tuition. I have always said if Hillary wants younger voters than give them what they want. Come up with a plan that gives them free tuition. Senator Sanders knows that republicans will never go for his plan, but doesnāt stop him from putting it out there. Senator Sandersā plan is like fools gold. Hillary should put a plan out there, but tell the truth about the chances of ever getting passed. At least she wonāt be leading a bunch of kids into rainbow land.
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