Discussion: 100 Days From The Elections, Dems Hold Upper Hand In Fight For House Control

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There’s going to be a big blue wave. The Senate is coming into play too.

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With all the TT/Cohen news it should bump us up a point or two.

Don’t forget to vote y’all.

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I hardly dare breathe when I read this stuff. I still have PTSD from November 2016.

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This is the difference between theory and practice. In theory, the Democrats are headed for a landslide election. In practice, this won’t happen unless Democrats actually get out and vote. Relying on polls and pundits to win elections won’t work. Elections are won with votes.

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Right, it is best to proceed as if the Dems are behind whatever the polls show. The last thing we need is for voters to not show up because they think their votes aren’t needed.

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Gotta keep campaigning, gotta keep working, gotta keep making phone calls and knocking on doors.

Gotta get out and vote for Democrats.

(No fucking purity tests or sitting it out this time - OK?!)

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But, but, but… the Blue Wave is really a Red Tide! He TOLD me so!!!

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From Politico:

The poll showed Wisconsin state education superintendent Tony Evers, the Democratic primary front-runner, taking 54 percent to Walker’s 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

In Michigan, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, the front-runner in her party’s gubernatorial primary, led Republican primary front-runner Bill Schuette in a general election matchup, 47 percent to 38 percent.

In Minnesota, former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty trails Democrats Lori Swanson and Tim Walz, the two top candidates in their primary. The poll shows both Democrats getting 51 percent support to Pawlenty’s 40 percent.

Democrats also performed well on the Senate ballot in all three states polled. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin held a substantial lead over both potential Republican challengers. She led businessman Kevin Nicholson by 15 percentage points among registered voters, and led state Sen. Leah Vukmir by 17 percentage points.

In the Michigan Senate race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow topped both potential Republicans challengers by double-digits. Stabenow led John James by 18 percentage points, and led Sandy Pensler by 15 percentage points.

And in the Minnesota race, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith — who replaced former Sen. Al Franken in January — led Republican Karin Housley 49 percent to 35 percent.

In Wisconsin, the poll surveyed 906 registered voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the general election. In Minnesota, the poll surveyed 876 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In Michigan, the poll surveyed 886 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

As always, Democrats need to be motivated and turn out to vote as if we are behind.

My favorite writer had a pretty optimistic article yesterday about a blue wave also:

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I heard similar talk in 2016, look what we have. I will celebrate when and if the Democrats win.

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God I hope so, but I have seen the Democrats pull defeat out of the jaws of victory before, so I won’t rest easy till the day after the election.

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Exactly. 2016 proved it’s all conjecture until election day.

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Definitely can’t become complacent, but democratic voters did turn out in the VA/NJ elections last year and in many (surprise) special election victories from Alabama to Pennsylvania. I’m not as concerned about democrats not turning out since every month Trump does something outrageous or horrific enough to spur people to action.

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Stating to feel like 2006.

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Fear not, I have nigh complete faith in the proven ability of the “democratic” Party, and their astounding abilities to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
My opinion is far from a popular one.
Good.
The 2018 midterms and the 2020 Presidential election season, which begin in 102 and 103 days respectively, still find the American people clawing desperately for hope from a political Party whose major "platform if you will is (still) “We’re not Trump.”
The “democrats” are banking on staking their victory, not on a better vision for what America wants and need to be. The major party that is supposed to be the opposition is gambling on a “victory” based on the sole fact that their opponents are a mess of Grifters, Gonifs, and just plain old Crooks.
Yes, America is in the clutches of a “Government” of thieves, who are out to steal as much from the American House before they burn down everything they cannot pry up and carry away.
In days of yore, such a spectacle would be enough to flush these people down the loo of History.
But they “govern” today as surely as they will until January 20, 2021, at Noon, scorching the Earth until the very last second, to be sure.
But in so admitting, the fact that alternative visions seem to be lacking must be faced up to and corrected.
One of the reasons this vile conglomeration of gangsters rules is because they have not faced an effective and UNITED opposition.
There is enough cause presented to average people of good will every day to detest what has been done by these vile thugs in the name of the American people. An entire string of events From Charlottesville to Helsinki proves their ineptitude, greed, and stupidity. You cannot think of a single week where some scandal has not shown these people for what they are.
But that does not matter. Seeing them for what they are is only part of setting things to right.
What matters is that the result of these many events has made almost no visible Common Cause among the citizens who disdain everything for which the current Administration stands.
Any number of individual demographics have ample reason to revile the actions of this Administration. But until and unless common cause is made to unite many groups, the opposition will not be effective enough to bring about the sweeping change for which a Nation and a World hopes.
I said it in 2016. Very Little has happened thus far to change my mind in 2018, and into 2020.
“We’re not Trump” is not a hope. It is not a genuine vision which restores to Americans the inspiration of the great things they have done in the past, nor of the bright future that lies ahead of them.
Without that vision, and a united people behind it, the rancid forces of retreat and rollback will have a chance to again be victorious. I hear nothing that does not seem to depend solely on how awful Trump is. Unless “democrats” can find a path that both uplifts and moves people for reasons beyond their own fragmented self-interests, victory is an illusion, and the prospects of defeat are too sickening for anyone with a human heart and a soul to contemplate.

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I wouldn’t get too optimistic about these types of stories. Undoubtedly the DNC is currently hard at work devising some monstrously self destructive election eve maneuver that will destroy their shot at taking either house of Congress.

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Democrats know this election is crucial to controlling the unprecedented damage Trump and his GOP lackeys are doing to our country. It’s now all about turnout, and getting occasional voters the polls this November.

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Hard not to be worried about it. Because the better it looks for us, the more they will lie, cheat and steal to change that. Or start a war. Damn, these are stressful times.

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I’m never comfortable counting our chickens before they’ve hatched.

The most significant problem Democrats have faced this last decade is a failure of progressives to vote in every election. The decisions are made by those who show up and Republicans show up even if they’re primary favorite is not on the ballot. Too many progressive sit home and bout because they didn’t get the unicorn someone promised them. This happen in 2010 and allowed the gerrymandering that today requires democrats to win <55% of the popular vote in House and many state legislative districts. If we show up, we will retake Congress, but if we showed up reliable we would have never lost the Congress.

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Talk about purity! ‘I’m With Her’ got us to where we are today. Stuff it, OK?