I’m not buying the “Chinese lost control of it” theory about the dreaded balloon fronted in Josh’s recent EdBlog. I was saying over the weekend that it could be a sign of lack of communication between Chinese agencies, or even a rogue element of the military. Here’s someone else floating (hah!) that theory in the NYT:
M. Taylor Fravel, the director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an expert on China’s military, said he thought that China’s leadership would not have authorized the balloon’s flight to the United States had it been aware of its journey, given Mr. Blinken’s visit.
“I can only speculate about the intentions of the unit that launched the mission: They may have been unaware or unconcerned about any political fallout should it be discovered, or perhaps they were executing longstanding plans without any attention to the diplomatic calendar,” Mr. Fravel said in an email.
Mr. Thompson said it was possible China’s military orchestrated the flap, as it would stand to benefit from heightened and sustained tension with the United States. Surveillance balloons are thought to be operated by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which is also responsible for China’s nuclear and conventional missile arsenal.
