I think its going to be pretty close to the presidential vote, maybe 1 or 2 point difference but if Biden wins NC then Dems should also be picking up the seat.
8 Likes
I always really liked Hagel.
2 Likes
Barbara Bollier is running even with Marshall here in Kansas, would love to see her win!
6 Likes
There are definitely some on the other side as well. I’ve noticed a number of people who were formerly staunch supporters (not quite in-your-face MAGA types, but fully in the Fox bubble) who have stopped defending him and switched more to attacking Dems and bothsidesing everything. It’s a subtle shift and they’re still undoubtedly going to vote for Trump, but it’s a step.
3 Likes
Cunningham has and is holding a pretty steady lead in NC.
Greenfield is holding a pretty steady, but smaller lead in IA.
Bollier in KS is slipping, but its basically a flip of the coin. Likewise in MT, though I have yet to see any poll with Bullock in the lead.
Harrison is pushing Graham hard. That is the “close” race I am watching the most intently.
McConnell is pulling way ahead of McGraff. And sadly, the latest polling from GA isn’t looking great for either seat. Still lots of time in the game, though.
4 Likes
While I tend to agree that Gardner will go down, a friend who still lives there was expressing concern just this week about possible impact from all the $s being poured into the state to advertise about Hick’s supposed corruption. (We only see these ads when we don’t skip them fast enough in DVR-ed baseball games; but there sure do seem to be a lot of these ads running on AT&T Sports Rocky Mountain…)
Just to mention, the only poll that counts will be conducted on November 3rd. Let’s flush the turd!
2 Likes
Lol, Cory! Come January, he’ll be just another lobbyist for the oil & gas industry
3 Likes
Wishful thinking? I hope not.
2 Likes
There aren’t enough Magats to vote for Gardner to save him in Colorado.
3 Likes
Lean Dem?
Like listing to port?
Somebody needs to tell Cook that the S.S. Colorado is about to capsize onto its port side!
Leaning, my ass.
2 Likes
3 Likes
The problem is that the SC is going to move hard right shortly, and the core of that cabal is quite young and could affect the Court for generations. So sure, Gardner may lose, but the damage will have already been done. Also, watch, depending on how the confirmation vote progresses, Gardner may be allowed to switch his vote, or Collins may switch her vote if needed.
As other pointed out, they are conservative in changing their ratings. Furthermore, at least in part their conservatism is based on the power of incumbency: note the flip case of Colorado – Alabama where Jones appears to be down by double digits yet they only rate it as “Lean Republican”.
While undecideds certainly represent an uncertainty for prognosticators, I am not sure it is reasonable to assume that they are simply shy trumpers. First of all, much of Trump base is proud of its trumpism. Second, there are much fewer undecideds this time around so even if “shy trumpist” argument is valid, its strength is diminished. Finally, undecideds traditionally break at least somewhat against incumbent on the election day.
1 Like
As everything else trumposts do and say, this is illogical. By replying to pollsters they would increase those low pro-Trump numbers while remaining anonymous to everyone with a possible exception of a person on the other end of the poll call.
But again, they think that the millionaire brat from New York City is one of them.
1 Like
Whose oil & gas industry? The Saudis and the Russians have created OPEC+ just to sustain oil prices around the $40 a barrel level, a level below where US frackers can compete. Also so much aquifer destruction. If any case is allowed to move forward on protecting the subterranean environment, it is game over for these people. This is a major reason for seizure of the courts. I really don’t see what Cory offers. He was a mediocre lawyer and reversing the fate of the frackers will depend on geopolitical changes. China, which burns over half of all the coal in the world, has actually increased coal consumption to 10% above pre-covid levels, and approaching the 5 billion metric ton level. Part of this is the resurfacing of the old “ultra-efficient” coal burning plant propaganda, the latest iteration of the “clean coal” nonsequitur. Perhaps Cory could get a job with the Chinese as a lobbyist? They still believe in the incredible gullibility of Americans. The US gets about 20-30% of its carbon emissions in the form of “embedded carbon emissions” contained in products imported from China.
Maybe I’m feeling too much doom and gloom, but I think the death of RBG is going to really motivate Republicans and especially evangelicals. They have got to be salivating over the likelihood that they can do away with Roe v Wade and also, of course, Obamacare. It’s my opinion that this election is going to get a LOT tighter and, in fact, I think these events pretty much ensure Trump will win. We will probably keep the House and might get the Senate, but I think Trump will be re-elected. And we haven’t even seen all the other dirty tricks they’ve got lined up. A report that a vaccine is being released, whether or not it is true, will help Trump tremendously too, since he can claim it was due to his leadership. Feeling very depressed here.
One of the messages on the stump should be that Trump commit to leaving nicely. No such promise of gentlemanly behavior has been forthcoming, and it really could throw the country into further crisis. All senate competitors should also be on the record that they support a peaceful transition of power.
3 Likes