The Colorado Senate race is now leaning toward a Democratic victory, according to the Cook Political Report, which made the change following Sen. Cory Gardner’s (R-CO) announcement that he would support a vote to confirm President Trump’s pick for the Supreme Court.
Surprised they’re just moving it to Lean Dem. Polls seem to show Hickenlooper up by a good margin.
What am I missing?
Great news, may the GOP destroy themselves
All the analysts are scared of a 2016 happening again.
So unless the Dem is up by 20 points, they are calling it a horse race.
All of these pundits are especially conservative (small c) with their evaluations after 2016, and they still think incumbents have the upper hand, despite so many going down in general elections in 2018. 538 is the same way, and even think Trump’s incumbency gives him an advantage, despite Trump’s apparent attempt to squander it at every turn.
On the other hand Cook has written that the presidential election is fully baked in Biden’s favor. I agree, and as pollsters start polling while people have started to early vote, and it favors Ds by 2-1, their “likely” voter evals will move a critical point or two in favor of Ds and, perhaps, demoralize R voters and entice swing voters to pick the likely winner. That’s how you can generate a rout like in 1980.
Incumbency for one thing. But also there is really a skew in the polls, due to republican voters refusing to state their preference due to either shame or resentment of being looked down. So all those “undecided/don’t know/didn’t tell” are for the most part republican voters and you have to consider that in your analysis.
Ok, that makes sense. I just looked at the polls and Hick is up by no less than five points in all polling and that’s just one poll that has him up only by five. In all other polls he’s up by seven or more. CO isn’t one of those lean states anymore. It’s pretty much solidly blue since 2014, and Hick isn’t some unknown quantity that people need to size up. He was their governor for eight years.
Corey Gardner has had the opportunity to be an American first in a purple state, but he has chosen to p*ss that away by quickly turning into a Trump sycophant after the 2016 election. One could hear the loud sucking and slurping sounds emanating from his office by 2Q2017.
Personally, I don’t mind that they’re keeping everyone nervous about things, despite steady leads in the polls.
Don’t need anyone getting complacent about going to vote. I’m off today to do just that.
Normally, I would agree with the incumbency argument if we were talking about State Senator Bill Smith or someone who hadn’t been a popular governor for eight years. I don’t know that a Gardner has the upper hand against a recent governor. For example, incumbency sure didn’t help Bill Nelson in FL against Rick Scott.
Shit, no doubt! We don’t need any more, “X is gonna win anyway, so I’m gonna vote my conscience and teach the DNC a lesson” morons.
Was looking at same polls. Hick is up on Gardner by +5, +10, and +7 in Sep polls.
Biden is up by +6, +10, +11, and +12 Sep polls.
Not much of a horse race.
#NoShit
There’s also a 9 point Morning Consult poll you might’ve missed back on 9/3, but you’re absolutely right. Even if it is a little closer than that, I suspect Biden will have some pretty long coattails in CO.
Hell, Biden has been tied and in the lead in Texas.
The race is already over.
Lean seems to mean Hickenlooper is favoured by 5 - 10%. Which seems reasonable IMO.
Cook Report and Crystal Ball are very sticky. They are both very slow to adjust their ratings, and it usually happens in increments like this, and long after the polling has indicated a larger shift.
Essentially they are “conservative”, but I don’t mean that in a political sense, just in terms of changing their ratings.
Speaking as a Coloradan and registered Democrat: this race has never been in question. The very notion of Bucky Beaver defeating Hick was always preposterous on its face.
What I can’t figure is whether they are reluctant to admit they are pro-Trump, or afraid to admit they are not. I would like to think that there are a lot of them unwilling to abandon their public bravura, yet secretly yearning for a way out the mess they had so eagerly embraced.
I despise Gardner to the point where I canceled my subscription to the Denver Post after they endorsed him in 2014. The one thing I will say in his favor is that he’s very focused on constituent service. When you contact his office; he responds promptly. His replies are generally BS but he does respond.
