We already know what Bolton is likely to say were he to testify in Congress (or what he might put in his book). Other witnesses who have already come forward are more compelling than he will be. Of course it would be a big media event, but substantively, Hill, Vindman, Sondland & Holmes et al are stronger witnesses.
Bolton will admit that he knew & approved of Sondland’s role as Trump’s special political envoy to get the political dirt Trump wanted from UKR sources against Joe Biden. He approved the 3 amigos team to manage the political demands & keep the policy on track.
Bolton will say that, while unusual, it was a concession to Trump to keep the overall policy goals re: UKR on track. He’ll say it was relatively harmless & fair game in politics b/c while he accepts Russia interfered in ‘16, it wasn’t decisive.Trump won on his own merits. However, Bolton will concede that w’things got out of hand’ b/c of Rudy. Rudy, he’ll say, undermined the relationship with UKR and was focused on getting the elected UKR gov’t involved in the scheme and not on limiting his political activities it to lesser players like current or former UKR prosecutors.
That was the political ‘hand grenade’ b/c Rudy was damaging the relationship w/Zelensky and helping Russia. Sondland, too, got out of control as he took further direction from Mulvaney. He will say he tried to intervene w/Volker, Sondland but to of no avail. That’s when he threw his hands up on the ‘drug deal’.
Bolton will also talk about the 7/25 call and his sense of alarm. He might volunteer that there was a potential legal issue re: the quid pro quo which is why he requested people to inform the lawyers. He’ll throw WH Counsel’s office under the bus for ar lack of follow-up. Next, Bolton will then confirm that the hold up of the military aid was a big concern of his starting in August and he tried to persuade others to push it through, including trying to persuade Trump in a direct one v one meeting. Having failed, he chose to resign for that and other reasons.
That testimony, while certainly interesting, doesn’t really add much to what others have said. It will provide a more complete account, and will also confirm that the political track was approved by key principals and managed by Trump and Rudy. We know this already.
For Bolton to really add value, he’ll have to go after Trump hard as unfit, unfocused, and easily influenced by Russian propaganda (building on what Fiona Hill said). He could repeat a lot of the assertions in the Anonymous book to underscore the point.
He will have to argue that the Russian active measures Trump is consumed by have distorted US foreign policy and are bad for the country. He should then call on
Senators to consider their responsibilities and act accordingly.
That would make his testimony historic. I don’t expect it, however, b/c he’s a Republican at the end of the day. Such testimony probably wouldn’t force the GOPto push Trump out, but it will severely weaken him as he can’t use a national security/CiC argument vs his Democratic opponent. It would more or less seal his political fate.
