Very good point. 2 million is the available pool of reservists. What is so strange is how randomly the ukaz is being applied. Young men plucked out of class, nabbed at home. Not going well and not sitting well with minority groups traditionally loyal to Moscow.
Of the six or so possibles, Mikhail Mishustin, the current prime minister is worth watching. He’s stayed in the Goldilocks region of the Putin blast zone, so close enough to take over, particularly security services, but far enough away to avoid getting shot against the wall. He’s 56, reasonably sporty, and like Trump, into real estate. He would likely be a temporary fix. It typically takes several years for a strong man (woman?) to emerge in Russia, and there is lots of shittiness in the interim. Stalin, for example, tried to have Lenin’s wife, Nadezhda Krupskaya, stripped of her status as Lenin’s widow. The dismantling of Putin’s empire could be a better than 10 seasons of Storage Wars meets Breaking Bad.
Definitely agree, regarding polling. I am trying my best to remain agnostic on that front. But part of me has always been bugged by the “Hispanics in Texas going red” boogey man–even though it has panned out in specific contexts (RG Valley) before. We shall see. One read of polling is that it is so far down the “equal” weighting rabbit hole, that it has lost its ability to forecast a volatile electorate/turnout. I’m trying to sort the 2020 “silent” authoritarian/racist/misogynist vote from the possibility of a fairly radical readjustment to the left. All I can say is: it’s really gonna suck if those forces (continue) to balance out.
Putin, if nothing else, is consistent. His deal with Yeltsin in 1999 was that Yeltsin, his family and close associates would not be killed or imprisoned after Yeltsin stepped down in exchange for leaving political life. A Putin deal, assuming he survives, might be something like give back most of your loot and you can retire in a nice cabin in Siberia or near Lake Ladoga north of St. Pete.