5 Points Of What To Make Of The Insane Early Voting Numbers We’re Seeing | Talking Points Memo

Just more evidence that mail-in voting is the way to go. When I put my and my wife’s ballots in the drop box (she’s recovering from her last round of chemo) there was NO line. In fact, the closest person was a father riding bikes with his three very-young children on a nice fall day. From the wobble, I’d guess the oldest just had the training wheels off of hers.)

Took me, maybe, 12 seconds (I had to unbuckle my seat belt to reach the slot.) and I didn’t even have to get out of my pickup .

It’s not new either. We’ve had mail-in voting now since 2013. In 2018 our rate of suspicious ballots was .0027% (voter fraud? WHAT voter fraud?) and our participation rate was 59%.

Nationwide it’s around 48%.

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Come on, Michigan!


David Eggert


@DavidEggert00

Michigan Secretary of State Benson has update: 3.25M absentee ballots requested, 2.4M returned. She continues to project record-high turnout

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Our (Harris) county is going to be open for 36-hours straight for Early Voting on Friday/Saturday!

We’ve had overnight temps around 60-degrees lately. Be a nice night to go vote!

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I keep hearing about early D voters vs R voters and who has the advantage. But a great many voters are registered as Independent or no party (they are the largest block in many states). So doesn’t that mean that the party registration of voters is not that useful a statistic?

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FL, AZ. Biden puts them away by 11:59pm on 11/3, you can stay home.

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Local boy. Does a great job.


Chad Livengood


@ChadLivengood

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6h

Replying to

@ChadLivengood

Latest

@detroitnews

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@Local4News

statewide poll:

@GovWhitmer

approval rating: 59% (61% approval rating on her handling of the coronavirus pandemic)

@realDonaldTrump

approval rating: 44% (55% disapprove of his handling of the pandemic) https://detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/28/whitmer-job-approval-beats-trump-job-approval-michigan-poll/6051858002/

via

@DNBethLeBlanc

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I’m thinking 16 years of democratic presidencies and intelligent governing would be a good start. BIDEN/HARRIS

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Then look at the stark increase in youth voting this election.
h/t @KalTX

Imagine that much of the early youth vote tally is going to be in the MANY college towns in the state.
Which, while Harris County is home to UH, Rice, TSU, and HBU-- those numbers of voters aren’t as great a percentage as some other smaller college towns (College Station, Lubbock, San Marcos, etc.).

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Trump’s administration has provided a very instructive edge case for our system of government; it has demonstrated the very real limits of existing laws, and of checks and balances. In particular, it has revealed just how much we rely on unwritten but well-understood shared values and conventions, and how dangerous it can be when they are disregarded.

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Yup, my daughter voted yesterday with a friend who voted for the first time in her life.

She said everyone she knows is voting Blue.

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Early voting is looking good in both states. Very good in Arizona.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/AZ.html

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

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The Trumpist PR strategy is critical. They are pushing hard to lock in that “calling the election on election night” isn’t just a media-hoopla habit we’ve got used to but somehow a constitutional requirement, so not to do so is ipso facto a blown election that has to be thrown to the SCOTUS. It’s kind of Florida 2000 writ large. If they can get ANY of the majors to call him the winner, then by the Bush v Gore precedent he is the injured party if he isn’t awarded the presidency. And remember how Bush v Gore said it wasn’t to be used as a precedent? That was a funny joke they put in there, wasn’t it.

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It’s roughly quadrupled from 2016, with three days still to go (and the closing days are usually about as busy as the first couple days).

ETA: This is wrong, and I apologize for the error. I was comparing to the wrong election. 2020 early voting is roughly double this point in the 2016 general election.

Apples and oranges, given the dramatic increase in Texas early voting overall. I’m willing to say that 18-30 year old voters are increasing their turnout fairly dramatically from 2016, but it’s nowhere near as big as that chart chart would have us believe.

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I don’t think that passing the early vote totals in 2016 at this late stage is anything to crow about. We should have passed it weeks ago.

Coy is a shitty look in 2020.

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It sounds like voters in Wisconsin will almost certainly have their votes tossed in the trash if they mail them today through Election Day. Are Wisconsin Dems being urged to either vote in-person early or on Election Day, or deposit their ballot in a drop box? I hope so. Wisconsin TPMers: Any insight on this?

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“Very, very soon” means when, exactly? How about now. Does now work? Because it’s already getting too late for it to be soon enough.

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It’s maddening.

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Of course, back in the “originalist” times it would be days before each state’s ballots were tallied, and weeks before they were all aggregated so that the electors could sit. But that’s not an interpretation any of the so-called originalists would take if they could gain an advantage by discarding it.

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Personally I think that by the end of the night Trump will be begging to have every single vote counted no matter how long it takes.

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