Democratically-aligned groups are doing autopsies on what went wrong in 2020 — or, perhaps more accurately, what didn’t go right enough — as they face the looming 2022 election cycle.
The word “hopefully” is doing a lot of work in that sentence…
Here’s what I see looking forward - if we don’t deal with Manchin, we are going to get slaughtered in 2022.
Bingo. If G.O.P. fuckery at the State level can’t be stopped by Federal legislation, we’re doomed. And if the filibuster lives, the needed legislation doesn’t get passed. And if no one reads Manchin the Riot Act, the Senate Republicans are going to do everything in their power to maintain their power, and to make Biden look like a failure. Finally, the judiciary, packed with Federalist Society hacks, is of no use to us.
I think it’s a lot simpler than that. Trump voters themselves always say they’ll never tell the truth to a pollster
[“Hopefully there will be some sort of truce,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune told Politico in a piece published last night. “It’s in everybody’s best interest — including the former president, if he wants to continue to stay viable politically — to help us win the majority in 2022. And that means working with Senate Republicans, and not against them.”]
From Josh’s essay today…
There are too many unknown variables, the majority of which have to do with Law Enforcement…Trump is awash with legal problems
I think, however, that “Trump voters” may be a bit thinner on the ground in 2022, since he won’t be on the ballot, or in the White House. These are people who come out to vote only when their grievances are address on a gut, personal, “my bully” level. Trump is their bully. Some G.O.P. Senator can’t inspire the same visceral reaction.
You said a mouthful. Not only do GOP Senators have negative charisma, but, collectively, they are the most cowardly and craven individuals in this Hemisphere.
They evoke nothing worth swallowing and keeping down.
Democrats keep underestimating the power of hate to draw Republicons to the polls. From the article, I seen no evidence that Dem. groups have learned the lesson yet.
If Dems. don’t immediately pass a strong voting rights act, Dems. will be slaughtered. And when I say immediately and strong, I mean now (so secs of state have time to implement it) and strong enough to preempt all these restrictive laws Republicons are enacting. Frankly, Dems. are dithering on this issue and pissing time we do not have away.
Will not happen. Repubs will be out in force with the expectation of gaining control again. It’s Dems. who will be a bit thinner, thinking this will be like any off-year election. Bank on it.
Item 3 speaks to that directly. Hate is the motivator, the “invisible RWNJ vote” is the effect.
Not only that, it’s doing it incorrectly!
Dubious claim. The state-level voting restriction bills are bad, of course, but they’re not really likely to be especially effective at suppressing the vote. They are mostly aimed at restricting practices that were adopted for the first time in 2020 as a response to the coronavirus, such as elections officials mailing out absentee ballot request forms to everyone or creating drop boxes. We did pretty well in 2018 without any of that stuff.
I don’t think the average voter whether it’s Republican or Democrat thinks in terms of “gaining control” at the national level unless it’s a Presidential election cycle. That’s literally what this midterm election will be about, but most voters don’t understand how government actually works, how critical majorities are in both houses of Congress, or the long-term impact on court appointments. So I don’t think we have to worry about a turnout differential based on R’s more desperate to take back Congress than Dems willing to keep control.
Voters in midterms focus more on local elections for Governor or representatives and Senators to send to DC. That’s where the Dems have to fight in every one of those races, putting up candidates who can win based on local concerns. We still have to mention what’s at stake in control of Congress and the courts, but that can’t be the main focus because most voters just aren’t that plugged in to understand the stakes.
Anecdotal but we completely removed person to person door knocking which has always had big voter reach in urban centers. Dems were and correctly had to be over cautious during the pandemic, but with that restriction removed in 2022 I think it will help dramatically.
Help me here: if a new VRA is passed, would federal judges be able to stay any challenges to it in time for 2022?
@txlawyer can respond separately but I’d say the answer depends on at least three things: the precise language of any new laws; the precise language used in any lawsuit; and the predilections of any judges involved.
“Trump” wasn’t on the ballot.
“EcQnomic Whitexiety” was.
I remember in 2009 when the ACA was being “negotiated” with republicans. They kept stretching out the timeline and making the legislation so much more complex as the Obama Administration kept trying to add their input to get republican votes. Problem here was that the republicans were doing all of this on purpose to 1. delay the legislation and 2. to make it so complex as to no one being able to explain what it did in the attention span of the electorate which made 3. it was incredibly easy to demonize. Charles Grassley even admitted that’s what they were doing when asked what needed to be in the bill to get his vote…he said nothing could be added to get his vote as he walked in to “negotiate”
If Joe Manchin thinks for 1 second that his force of will is going to change this, he is either naive or just stupid. Republicans will play him like a fiddle right up to 2022 so if they do pass something, there wont be enough time for people to see the benefit. Why cant he see that he is dealing with republicans who have no desire to do any kind of deal?