The filibuster does not exist in a silo. It exists in a political context. The GOP has both undermined and abused the filibuster for one reason: because the social conservative base demands it. Social conservatives are the anchor of the GOP coalition because evangelical voters vote in big numbers and live in the South and battlegrounds. Specifically, McConnell started this weaponization of the filibuster over the courts. The social conservative base has demanded that the GOP stack the courts with conservative judges. That didn’t just apply to their own appointees but also to aggressively stop Dem appointees. That’s why McConnell expanded the filibuster to block every appointment under Obama, until Harry Reid said ‘enough is enough’. Then, when the Dem coalition failed to recognize the huge impact the 2016 election had on the SCOTUS and the GOP seized the trifecta, the social conservatives naturally demanded that the SCOTUS be stacked. So, McConnell changed the rule to do just that.
Now, for really the first time in the Dem Party’s history, the Dems under Biden are finally recognizing that Black voters are the anchor of the Dem party, not white liberals. Black voters are demanding that racial justice be central to the party, in order to win elections, maintain power and pass a Dem agenda to improve the lives of all Americans. There is a reason why Schumer elevated S1 alongside infrastructure as the absolute must-haves: because Black voters demand it. That’s why the filibuster is changing. Black voters simply will not tolerate the filibuster being a roadblock to progress in the face of GOP Jim Crowism. If Schumer put a motion on the floor to end the filibuster for S1, 48 Dem caucus members would support it. That reality stems from the fact that the Dems’ electoral coalition depends on Black voters. Our majority depends on Black voters in Georgia, PA, MI, WI. Our ability to expand that coalition of states depends on black and minority voters in AZ, NC, FL, TX.
The filibuster is effectively dead on the GOP side. It will never stand in the way of a GOP priority ever again. When the Dems get enough new Senators to dilute the impact of Manchin/Sinema, the filibuster will be dead for Dem priorities as well.