2020 is quite possibly one of the worst years when it came to the Dems and the Senate. So many good candidates got destroyed despite their fundraising advantages and the mirage of good polling numbers. Everything that we thought we knew regarding how we spend money on races, polling, and competing in Red States needs to be challenged and reevaluated. Also, we’ll likely need to clean house on our consultants.
Our only hope to get some semblance of control for the legislative agenda is to win BOTH Georgia Senate seats. And if we do pull it off, there’s hardly any chance of filibuster reform thanks to Manchin.
Sorry if I’m being a downer, but I can’t believe that things went so terribly wrong with the Senate.
Well…if the odds of winning either are 50:50 (that’s 1 in 2), the odds of winning both are 1 in 4. Just sayin’.
On the other hand, I agree with you that it’s a longshot.
Plus Toomey, Burr and Grassley not running again in 2022.
I think the only way to get around the filibuster, even if we win (with Manchin thumbs down) or loose the Senate is through budget reconciliation, like with the ACA. But legislation has to be budget related. Or … prosecute McConnell and Senate Republicans who received Russian money for their reelections in 2015. Do Democrats have the will to pursue that option? Who knows.
As someone who dug deep into polling this year and maintained a model based on internals of polling, I can say keep the polls at arm’s lengthand focus on the following:
To win GA, both Dems need to get 30% of the White vote, a high turnout of black voters and hit 90%. A difference maker could be non-Black POC voters, Asians and Latinos. Building margins with them can offset any surge of rural whites to the GOP.
These will be turnout elections. The Dems are in a more ideal situation in this special election type setting in a state like GA where the GOP routinely wins 75% of the white vote (or better).
With Trump out, it’s quite possible that the rural surge vote for the GOP won’t be there. If the Dems drive their numbers out of the metro areas, they’ve got a shot. The deciding factor will be the white suburban vote. Will they go back to the GOP after voting in higher numbers for Biden to where the white share is less than 29%? Or, will they stick with the Dems and give President Elect Biden a chance to govern in a 50-50 Senate (which should provide reassurance to moderate/center right voters against Dem overreach)? Those are the issues in a nutshell.
Aside from Biden defeating Trump and basically Americans voting against the autocratic trump himself, the Democrats lost across the board on the downstream vote.
This is the 3rd election where Dems have failed. Let’s give the leadership a big raise and leave them in power and control of the party. Just because going Republican lite is such a great strategy.
The Republicans don’t win by going Democratic lite. They win by going big. What is wrong with the Dems? How did the Dems lose their way? This is not the party of Jack Kennedy and fighting for the working and middle class workers! Those were the days when the Dems won!
