BALTIMORE (AP) — President Donald Trump has been telling voters that the U.S. economy will leap back to life “like a rocket,” stronger than ever after its bout with the coronavirus.
"Only false prophets claim to have all the answers."
Holy shit. Just bankrupt the nation right now and get it over with.
March 30th 2020…St. Luis FED forecasted the potential to lose 47 million jobs. As of today, we have lost approx. 16 million jobs, we are a third of the way of the forecast.
Why was the 2008 Great Recession slow to recover…
The recent slow recovery is most similar to the Great Depression. Low aggregate demand for reasons unrelated to the financial crisis may be an explanation for both episodes, but uncertainty and government policies are an alternative supported by recent research on the Great Depression
Those were the years that the Greed-Over-People Party pretended to be the “Fiscal Responsibility” Party and became the Party of NO to anything Obama/Dem!
Fast forward 2016 Trump Regime - GOP became the “Fiscal Irresponsibility” Party with the $1.5T tax cut for the rich…and they went to town and partied from their loot!
2020 Covid-Pandemic - GOP became the “Fiscal Profiteering” Party…$500B Slush Fund and another $450B for the FED with no public info…
No need to go figure why the aftermath recovery of Covid will probably be longer than the Great Recession - Americans will be sicker and or bankrupt from medical bills and job losses!
That last line, about how Nicholas Bloom had exited the stock market for the time being, prompted me to check his age–46 years old.
“Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!!” Trump declared Wednesday on Twitter.
Translation: Trump Plans To Nuke Someone! Maybe America! Bigly!
Cut salaries and cut taxes?
Holy shit is right!
I don’t understand how the stock market has come up as much as it has lately. With oil in the toilet and unemployment claims past the moon it makes no sense. And there are a whole bunch of other negative indicators, too.
I can’t help but think the fix is in, and the big drop has yet to hit.
“Unlikely”? No certain.
Without a vaccine, any strategy about putting an economy back on its feet has to be driven by antibody testing. The first returning to “normal” life are children in day care and elementary school. Since this is not the 18th century, we can assume that their economic contributions are de minimis. Next you have workers and entrepreneurs who have had the virus and recovered. They need to be cleared and returned to normal life. Then you have to find the people who have had very mild cases or were asymptomatic throughout their entire infection period. This may have to be voluntary at some firms, just to get a picture of who those people are. For example, Stockholm, which is now in a plateau, is estimated to have reached a point where 10% of the population has antibodies, but hard to say who, except that theyprobably live in northern Stockholm. As this blind push to gain herd immunity can backfire horribly, the prudent approach is to keep physical distancing in place until people are cleared.
Some people, particularly knowledge workers, have continued to work from home without much economic distress. They should not be forgotten, because they are why such things as payroll and project engineering continue apace despite the pandemic.
Finally, it would be great to know who is most likely to get a mild case of coronavirus or be asymptomatic. Studies seem to suggest this person is 9-10 years old, which again has little immediate economic significance. We now have some valuable infected populations such as Spain that could provide important answers for the rest of us. In other words, if a country starts a national antibody testing program, it should also contribute a small part of its budget to testing in Spain which may be having trouble rolling out such a program. Here, the EU parliament could play a decisive role in funding and unlocking this information.
Because it was fake after republicans took over 2 years into Obama’s 8 years and mostly running off rich folks playing the stock market while most folks were living on less income. And the current fall of the market and business will put people into bigger debt than before with probably even shittier paying jobs and no help for the common man from republicans, only big handouts to the rich that might let some money trickle down to the average guy? Typical republican economics.
My family will definitely be spending less for the remainder of 2020.
It’s far, far easier to tear something down than to build it back up, as a future President Biden will have to do on a number of fronts.
This conversation is putting the cart before the horse. Until we know a lot more about this virus, it’s natural progression, our ability to become immune, whether there’s going to be a second wave of infections, and, of course, the elephant in the room -Trump’s actions to protect us, which to date have been abysmal, it’s impossible to make an accurate prediction regarding the economy.
Actually, scratch that. I know Trump and he’s going to do the wrong thing at every step. Beyond that, I agree that aggregate demand will be a huge problem. I don’t see an easy way out here. He really broke it this time.
My wife and I will go on one of those delightful cruises as soon as this is over. Yeah, right…
Professional buyers picking up bargains that they will sell when the market peaks again.
It’s not any more complicated than that.
As Paul Krugman said, this is not an economic collapse in the usual sense of the term.
This was intentionally putting the economy in the equivalent of a medically-induced coma in order to make sure the patient survived.
It will be late next year before things return to even a semblance of “normal” economic activity.
You can always create demand; the Fed can buy anything it wants, including cars, houses, you name it. They are buying low-rated corporate debt, so why not? Modern monetary theory will certainly get a real test.
Yes - exactly. That’s why analogizing it to the Great Depression isn’t quite right - the jobs lost may not all be lost forever and really shouldn’t be. It’s just that waking up from the coma is not going to be easy. It will take time.
As Bloom so aptly pointed out it’s consumer confidence that brings the economy back; no matter how much money you throw at it.
I was talking this over a couple of days ago when a major bank decided to suspend dividend payments for the rest of 2020. This same bank took the maximum of tax breaks and major stock buybacks so you know they are loaded. How confident will the average investor with retirement needs and 401Ks trust a bank that suspends dividends on a whim? Better they lower their dividends to reassure the investor that they are making a good faith effort. This same lack of consumer confidence will extend out for years when spending money on anything but the bare essentials.
The depression hit people really really hard and a large number of them never forgot it and spent their money accordingly.
“Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom is an expert on uncertainty…”
I wonder if you have to pass a test for that field? Until you were certified you’d be uncertain if you were qualified, yet unsure if you were uncertain.
