This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1479219
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1479219
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My opinion is America should be sending EVERYTHING Ukraine needs to beat the snot out of the Russians
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The core problem to any ‘negotiation’.
Putin will likely require keeping at least the pre-2022 territory and a prohibition of joining NATO as a condition for a peace treaty. Both are wholly unacceptable to the Ukrainian people.
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100% of GQP surveyed said “Putin should win”
Biden’s biggest failure was not sending everything possible in the first year of the war, now no aid will be sent unless the Dems win back both parts of Congress.
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Biden did.
This ‘Ukraine aid’ bill is not really going to Ukraine as much as it’s going to US defense material manufacturers to build the weapons Ukraine has found most success with from what we’ve sent them. Those manufacturers basically need a guarentee that at least the US military will buy whatever they can produce to justify the significant investments in greater manufacturing capacity that is required.
This is what is so frustrating about Republican opposition. The money won’t really be going to Ukraine, but defense contractors often in their own districts. They are literally forgoing jobs and economic growth in their districts to help Putin win.
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What most people don’t understand about war, especially a war like this, is that, as the war drags on and more people are killed, the invading side has less chance of “winning” anything.
Imagine you’re living in the country that’s been invaded by a superior power. In the beginning, you might consider just letting the invading country win because you might be more concerned about your home or the fate of your family than you are about who is running the government.
Now imagine that, as the war progresses, your family is killed or your home is destroyed. At this point, not only do you have less to lose by fighting, you will probably blame the invading country for your loss and will stop at nothing to drive them out.
This is why military superiority alone can’t win a war. If the invading country can’t force a quick surrender, they’re not only unlikely to win, they’re less likely to win with each shot they fire or neighborhood they bomb.
Asking how many people the Russians have to kill before Ukraine surrenders is a bit like asking how many times do you need to hit a hornets’ nest with a stick before the hornets give up and leave you alone.
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The most important and valuable cost of any war is blood on the battlefield.
This poll provides one the answer to one half of the most important questions about the war, that Ukraine is willing to spend even more blood on the battlefield to resist Putin’s invasion. The other half of the question is how Russians think about the blood they are and will continue to spend to try and conquer Ukraine for Putin.
To the question about American help to Ukraine or as noonm pointed out, aid to American industry to provide military equipment for Ukraine, this really is a question of patriotism.
Giving credit where credit is due, tying aid to Ukraine to a Republican border bill, I must tip my hat to Mitch McConnell and the skillful way he is taking back control of the GOP from Trump. The terrible politics Trump is forcing upon Republicans to reject a Republican border bill under the guise of having an election issue when everyone who knows what is happening knows it is all about Trump pleasing his master Putin, means either the House will pass the bill or Trump and Republicans loyal to him will be slaughtered in November.
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Since February 2022, the flag of Ukraine has not left our front yard.
Russia is a lawless aggressor. Just like Trump.
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Americans think like this.
Putin/Trump/GOP think otherwise because they know Russia will slaughter all who believe in freedom.
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We need some patriotic Ukrainians in the GOP House, I suppose. Is there a mechanism to trade a Ukranian Disabled soldier for Empty-G, Comer, Boebert, and the like? It can be temporary if the GOP congresspeople do a good job fighting on the front lines, although they’d probably just hide under a desk if they couldn’t fight for the Russians.
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We should also send them Ron Johnson, Ted Cruz, Markwayne Mullin, and the entire Freedumb Caucus, to do with as they might. Oh, and that fat weird-looking orange dude.
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Our ideas crossed in the intertubes.
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It’s simple really. Russian troops are more afraid of getting killed than they are of losing.
Ukrainian troops are more afraid of losing than they are of getting killed.
Ukraine will prevail.
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I agree to some extent - the manufacturers have been foot-dragging to increase capacity of ammunition (particularly 155mm shells) due to the lack of clarity on contracts. And more Javelins and rocket artillery is sorely needed.
But the US has 4,000 or so Abrams tanks, and just recently retired ~400 from the Marine Corps, which should have been sent - not the utterly pathetic token 32 or so that was actually promised.
ETA: yes, 80% at least of the aid would be spent in the US.
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If Putin were removed from the equation, who would succeed him? And what policies would they push? Would they be less intractable or even more belligerent? Making a play for Ukraine seems to be an act of desperation from a fallen empire, futilely trying to maintain influence in a world that has passed it by. Putin seems to be a significant factor pushing the invasion, but how much resistance to it exists in the rest of the Russian leadership? Would new leadership be willing to cut bait and pull out of Ukraine? Or would they have to “prove” themselves by pushing it even harder?
Another aspect of the problem is that Ukraine didn’t crumble under the initial Russian assault, like Georgia and Chechnya had in earlier conflicts. They weren’t cowed by the Russian military machine and the Ukrainians have fought Russia to a standstill. This leaves Russia with a greatly tarnished image since it exposes how far their military might has fallen and if they were to leave Ukraine, it would be an unrecoverable loss of face for their perceived standing on the world stage.
Putin’s assault on Ukraine was essentially the action of General Jack D. Ripper from Dr. Strangelove. Russia has to fully commit to conquering Ukraine now because anything less would destroy its image of power and influence in the world. It’s one of the stupidest reasons to keep fighting, but Putin is still very much enamored of that kind of Cold War ethos. Until and unless someone in Russia’s leadership is willing to step forward into the 21st Century, I don’t see how this conflict can be resolved. Ukraine is fighting for their survival as an independent nation, while Russia is there to prove it’s still a significant force in the world.
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Unfortunately, negotiating with Putin is even more self-destructive than negotiating with Trump. Putin is both smarter and more mentally stable than Trump and much more calculating. Putin simply wants to buy time to create a stronger military situation for himself and deal with the internal issues his war is creating in Russia. That doesn’t leave many options for Ukraine beyond finding a military solution.
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And that’s because the Russian solders know that they really have no business being in Ukraine and no good reason to sacrifice their lives whereas the Ukrainians have every reason to continue fighting. If you look back in history, this explains basically every occasion where a superior military force tried to invade a much smaller country and lost.
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And though hard to believe, Russia has an even worse record of honoring Treaties and Covenants than Orange Julius.
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