US Economy Contracted At Head-Spinning 33% Rate Last Quarter | Talking Points Memo

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a dizzying 33% annual rate in the April-June quarter — by far the worst quarterly plunge ever — when the viral outbreak shut down businesses, throwing tens of millions out of work and sending unemployment surging to 14.7%, the government said Thursday.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1323212
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For perspective: in no single year during the Great Depression did the GDP in the U.S. (adjusted for either inflation or deflation) shrink by as much as it did during the second quarter of 2020. The real GDP shrank a total of about 25% between October 1929 and March 1933. That’s an average of about 6% per year. Last quarter, the GDP shrank by 7.6% (annualized to 33%).

Edit: the actual drop in real GDP last quarter was 9.5% not 7.6%. My bad :slightly_frowning_face:

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You can’t spend money the government doesn’t give you at places that aren’t open when you don’t have a job to get your own, but because Repugs think everyone is trying to scam as hard as they do and no one would work for any reason other than money, the money you can’t spend at places that aren’t open might keep you from looking for the jobs that aren’t there.

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I don’t think we can take much more of this winning.

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Not an issue… you see the economy only contracted for the 99%, so this is really a non-issue for the government since they are all supported by the 1% and the Corporations.

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Everyone knows the Commerce Department puts out fake numbers. They’re suppression reports. Everyone agrees.

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So dizzying was the contraction last quarter that most analysts expect the economy to produce a sharp bounce-back in the current July-September quarter, perhaps of as much as 17% or higher on an annual basis. Yet with the rate of confirmed coronavirus cases having surged in a majority of states, more businesses being forced to pull back on re-openings and the Republican Senate proposing to scale back government aid to the unemployed, the economy could worsen in the months ahead.

And add to this the recent increases in jobless claims, an unfortunately-likely resurgence in cases this fall as school resumes–and parents of younger children whose schools will “open” online having some very hard choices to make about childcare . . .

I fear it will not be a good fall.

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Gosh, it’s almost as if Republicans are bad for business.

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meanwhile, the German economy shrank by 10,1%…

The Federal Statistics Office said gross domestic output in Europe’s largest economy shrank by 10.1% quarter-on-quarter from April to June after a revised 2.0% contraction in the first three months of the year…
Overall, the government expects the economy to shrink by 6.3% this year and rebound with an expansion of 5.2% in 2021. This means that the German economy is unlikely to reach its pre-crisis level before 2022.

In other words, Germany took a hit – but is in a position where strong recovery is possible, thanks to how it handled the pandemic. The US under Trump, not so much…

.

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Since the economy was supposed to be the lynchpin on which Trump depends for his re-election, I’d say he’s pretty well sunk.

It’ll take a couple of weeks to percolate through the polls, but the numbers will slide a bit on this. It’s clear, he’s in deep doo doo. And Biden can run on this, legitimately, no matter how the WH or GOP bootlickers try to spin it.

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Dow drops 340 points at the news…

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not just the increase in jobless claims – the total number of people getting unemployment benefits rose by 800,000. In other words, (re)hiring is not coming close to keeping pace with unemployment claims.

And lets not forget that the 32.9% drop would have been MUCH worse if consumer spending hadn’t been subsidized by federal aid – aid that the GOP is desperately trying to substantially reduce.

No, its not going to be a good fall…

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Just for context:

The 32.9% drop is expanded out to an entire year. So, the likely quarterly drop is more along the lines of 10%. It’s still a shitty number. But the entire GDP didn’t drop 32.9% in one quarter.

And let’s just watch the Dow today, to see if Delusion-Donald still has control over it.

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Remember, that’s Fantasy Dow Jones Football.

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The G7 countries, plotted on the basis of
–gdp contraction
–covid deaths per million

USA occupies the ‘doom quadrant’

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Boeing is going to get sacked in the end zone and really tank the over-under.

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Minor but important correction. The economy officially entered recession in February, BEFORE the virus really affected economy, WEEKS before the shutdowns. The virus exacerbated the recession, but did NOT cause it. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/business/economy/us-economy-recession-2020.html

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The TRUMP economy officially entered recession in February, BEFORE the virus really affected economy, WEEKS before the shutdowns.

FIFY

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We’re so lucky to have a businessman in the WH. Surely he has a brilliant plan to bring the economy back without making the virus worse.

What’s that you say? Not a prayer? Next thing you know you’ll tell me he went bankrupt multiple times and only was able to do what he did because his daddy gave him money.

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February 2020? That was like, 50 years ago!! :crazy_face:

But yeah, you’re right. I vaguely remember news about Treasury bonds hitting a point where economists were saying it was officially a recession.

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